Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−4.3
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.3
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.3
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.3
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.3
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8%+3.7
n=25 · A/E 1.59 · £1 +13.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle2813.6%−2.00
Chase1516.7%−3.00
NH Flat400%−4.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good2700%−27.00
Good to Soft10110%+2.00
Good to Firm5120%+21.00
Soft300%−3.00
Heavy200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Newton Abbot1616.3%+10.00
Exeter1300%−13.00
Taunton7114.3%+5.00
Wincanton300%−3.00
Warwick200%−2.00
Worcester200%−2.00
Hereford200%−2.00
Stratford100%−1.00
Lingfield100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 52727.4%+11.00
Class 41900%−19.00
Class 3100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
2nd–3rd fav400%0.00−4.00
4th–6th fav1516.7%1.04−3.00
7th+ in betting2813.6%1.83−2.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f1915.3%+7.00
1m5f – 2m1200%−12.00
2m5f – 3m1100%−11.00
Over 3m5120%+7.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20221119.1%+1.00
20231000%−10.00
2024600%−6.00
20251000%−10.00
202610110%+16.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps3525.7%+3.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners2414.2%+2.00
5-7 runners1000%−10.00
11-13 runners9111.1%+3.00
14-16 runners300%−3.00
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 13 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 13 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive; 4 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 12 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
00000003300·50
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Leading Knight (IRE) — Claire Hitch 50th Birthday Handicap Chase Taunton · Dec 2022 · Class 5
£4,629
Son Of Hypnos (IRE) — Torbay Weekly Handicap Hurdle Race Newton Abbot · Aug 2026 · Class 5
Progeny have won 9.7% of 829 runs since 2008 (57 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 12.7% from 299. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 5.9% from 101.
Progeny have won 7.1% of 1,671 runs since 2008 (128 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 10.9% from 540. Weakest on Soft going: 2.6% from 305. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 2.7% from 147.
Califet (FR)0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 11.8% of 3,787 runs since 2008 (399 horses).
Progeny have won 8.3% of 1,312 runs since 2008 (183 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 11.8% from 212.
Barely A Moment (AUS)0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 3.1% of 129 runs since 2008 (19 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 86 · newest first
The latest 50 of 86 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 9 May 2006 to 13 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Ryan Chapman's strike rate?
Ryan Chapman has won 2 of 47 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 4.3% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Ryan Chapman in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Ryan Chapman's Fair A/E?
1.09, from 47 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Ryan Chapman·SR 4.3%·A/E 1.09
KTB
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