4:01 Newcastle
This Class 5 Open Maiden National Hunt Flat Race at Newcastle over 2m0f190y on good ground features a field of nine, several of whom arrive with only limited racecourse exposure. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Mon Missel and Koa Beau both rated 61, followed by Batchelor's Lad on 58 and Cayenne on 52, underlining that experience, pedigree and yard form will all play their part in a race where the numbers suggest little between the leading principals. Dropping in class is a theme for the first four, while the overall profile remains one of modest yet open maiden standard.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as muddling and tactical with medium confidence, and there is no obvious front-runner. Several principals, including Mon Missel and Koa Beau, are noted as prominent runners who like to race handily on or close to the lead, which should see them well placed in a race that is expected to suit those ridden close to the pace. Batchelor's Lad tends to settle in mid-division while Rip It Up is held up, so the key question is which of the prominent types can take advantage of the tactical nature and dictate matters without overdoing it early.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Mon Missel KTB Selection61/100
Mon Missel has already shown promise with a second on debut over this trip and track, followed by a fall and then a third last time out, and with only three runs behind him this four-year-old remains open to further improvement. The yard posts a 24% strike rate at Newcastle from 17 runs while Gavin Sheehan operates at a strong 37% here from 30 rides, figures that command respect. Half-brother to Illogical Logic who won three times from 29 starts, he comes from a dam that has produced two winners from four other runners. Dropping in class looks a positive and although he has no experience of good ground or a course win to his name the placed form gives him a solid base. Usually raced prominently, he should be well positioned in a muddling tactical affair.
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2Koa Beau61/100
Koa Beau has just a single run to his name, finishing third in a manner that offered only minimal encouragement, and the trip poses a fresh question today. Trainer Ewan Whillans holds a 12% strike rate at Newcastle from 43 runs, a level in line with his record elsewhere, while Craig Nichol has an 8% strike rate here from 310 rides that matches his performance at other tracks. Dropping in class is noted though the overall profile carries limited substance so far. Usually prominent, he should be ridden close to the pace in a race that is expected to suit that style. With so little form on the board he remains modest at this stage.
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3Batchelor's Lad58/100
Batchelor's Lad displayed ability when finishing second on his sole start over this trip and boasts an attractive pedigree as half-brother to Grade 2 winner Jason The Militant. The dam has produced two winners from five other runners. Trainer Philip Kirby's 11% strike rate at Newcastle aligns with his record elsewhere and jockey Joe Williamson has no supplied record at the track. Everything rests on that one piece of form so the profile is low-confidence overall. Dropping in class is a factor and with no experience of good ground he must be judged on limited evidence. Typically settling in mid-division, he will look to come into the race from midfield in what is likely to be a tactical contest.
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4Cayenne52/100
Cayenne makes his racecourse debut with no prior experience. Half-brother to Maple who won twice from 25 starts, he is out of a dam that has produced three winners from five other foals to race. Trainer Nicky Richards holds a 19% strike rate at Newcastle from 439 runs while Danny McMenamin is on 17% here from 209 rides, both in line with their records elsewhere. The yard's debutants rarely set the world alight first time and by Ghaiyyath he carries a 15% overall sire win rate from 1177 runners. With no course win on record and only pedigree and yard stats to go on, he fits the modest profile expected of a newcomer in this company.
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5Always Proud50/100
Always Proud showed little when seventh of eight on his only start and is half-brother to useful handicapper Wor Willie from a family that has produced three winners from four runners. Dropping in class, the yard has a 0% strike rate at Newcastle from five runs and with only one run on the board both trip and ground remain open questions.
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6Regal Thunder47/100
Regal Thunder has shown fair placed form, finishing third here over today's trip on his most recent start, and is a full brother to triple winner Shewearsthewellies from a dam that has produced two winners from three other runners. Lightly raced with just one appearance in the last year the small sample means his ability must be treated with caution, though he has placed once on good ground and was third on his sole visit to Newcastle.
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7Rip It Up45/100
Rip It Up has a single fourth-place finish to his name over 2m so steps up in trip today, posing a fresh question. The dam has had three other runners without a winner between them and with only one piece of form the picture is very light. Trainer John Dawson has a 0% strike rate at Newcastle from six runs while Brian Hughes rides with a 17% strike rate here from 732 rides in line with his record elsewhere.
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8Mystic Marie41/100
Mystic Marie is a debutant with no racecourse experience. The dam has produced two other runners without a win between them and trainer John Norton has a 4% strike rate at Newcastle from 116 runs, in line with his 3% at other tracks. By Outstrip he carries a 9% overall sire win rate from 3491 runners.
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9Absence Of Ego40/100
Absence Of Ego is a debutant with no racecourse form. The yard’s 9% strike rate at Newcastle is in line with their record elsewhere and the family has produced only one previous runner that failed to win. With low data confidence this one is very hard to weigh up and by Sea Moon he carries a 12% overall sire win rate from 592 runners.
KTB verdict
Mon Missel is the KTB Selection. He has already shown placed form over this trip and track, remains open to improvement with only three runs behind him, and is backed by a yard and jockey combination that know their way around Newcastle well. His prominent style should suit the muddling tactical pace expected here. The main dangers are Koa Beau, who shares the top Fit score and should also be ridden close to the pace, and Batchelor's Lad, whose debut second and strong pedigree give him scope despite limited evidence. Cayenne cannot be entirely dismissed on pedigree and yard stats but the newcomers overall face a stiff task against those with some experience.
KTB Selection Mon Missel
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:02am, 27 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Mon Missel | 5/2 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Koa Beau | 16/1 | William Hill, 12:02am |
| Batchelor's Lad | 12/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Cayenne | 2/1 | BoyleSports, 12:02am |
| Always Proud | 4/1 | William Hill, 12:02am |
| Regal Thunder | 40/1 | William Hill, 12:02am |
| Rip It Up | 11/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Mystic Marie | 50/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Absence Of Ego | 7/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
This is the narrative read of the 4:01 Newcastle. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newcastle racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Newcastle results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Newcastle racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest placed form at this track and trip?
Mon Missel was second on debut at this trip and track and has since finished third, while Regal Thunder was third here over today's trip on his most recent start.
How many of the principals are dropping in class?
All four principals — Mon Missel, Koa Beau, Batchelor's Lad and Cayenne — are dropping in class.
Which runners are expected to race prominently?
Mon Missel and Koa Beau are both noted as usually racing handily on or close to the lead.
What is the pedigree highlight for Batchelor's Lad?
He is half-brother to Grade 2 winner Jason The Militant (5 wins from 25 runs).
Which jockey has the highest strike rate at Newcastle among those riding today?
Gavin Sheehan has a 37% strike rate at Newcastle from 30 rides.
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