4:05 Ayr
This Class 5 handicap over 7f50y at Ayr on heavy ground brings together ten modest performers in a race that lacks an obvious leader. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Cisco Disco heading the list on 61, followed closely by Stanage (57), Empirestateofmind (56), Monsieur Kodi (55) and One Night Thunder (54). Most of the field carry recent placed form or course success, yet the heavy surface and steadily-run nature of the contest are likely to place extra emphasis on proven stamina and track familiarity.
How the race shapes up
With no one obviously wanting the lead the pace shape points to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay. The majority of runners, including all five principals, are usually held up and produce their effort late, so the key question will be whether any horse can get into a workable position early enough without using up too much energy on the heavy ground. Those drawn lower may find it easier to slot in just behind the pace, while wide draws could prove harder to overcome in a race that may not truly test stamina until the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Cisco Disco KTB Selection61/100
Cisco Disco is a modest performer with a solid record at Ayr, where he has won five times from 24 runs. He has scored twice on heavy ground from only four attempts and drops back to a trip he has won at three times from 13 starts. The R. Mike Smith yard posts an 8% strike rate at the course from a large sample, while the claiming jockey is still seeking a first win from 18 rides here. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and is expected to come from off the pace in what is likely to be a steadily-run race.
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2Stanage57/100
Stanage is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning. He has placed on his only visit to Ayr and has shown he handles heavy ground, though his recent efforts have been a bit patchy. The Michael & David Easterby stable has an 11% strike rate at the track, and Billy Garritty’s 12% record from 167 rides adds further encouragement. Dropping in class and usually held up, he will be produced late in what looks a steadily-run affair.
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3Empirestateofmind56/100
Empirestateofmind is a modest performer who knows his way around Ayr, having won all three starts here. His recent form is a bit up and down but he has two wins from his last four starts and has placed three times from four runs at today’s trip. He handles heavy ground well enough with a win and three places from five attempts. Usually held up, the John & Sean Quinn runner will be delivered late, with Jason Hart’s 14% strike rate at Ayr a positive.
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4Monsieur Kodi55/100
Monsieur Kodi is a modest performer who has won once from six starts at Ayr and also has a win to his name at today’s trip. Recent form is mixed but he has been competitive at this level and the Richard & Peter Fahey yard has a solid 12% strike rate here from 34 runs. He has failed to place in two runs on heavy ground, however, and the 3lb claimer has a poor 3% strike rate at the track from 30 rides. Usually held up, he will need to produce his effort at the right time.
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5One Night Thunder54/100
One Night Thunder is a modest performer who has won over this trip and on heavy ground. He has already scored at Ayr from just two visits and arrives in decent form having won last time out. The Gemma Tutty yard shows an 18% strike rate at the course, though the jockey’s record is more modest. Dropping in class and usually held up, he will be ridden for a late run on ground that suits.
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6The Gay Blade52/100
The Gay Blade is a modest performer who has won five times over this trip and landed one of his four starts at Ayr. He arrives in decent form having won three of his last six starts though he has been well held on his last two outings. The Iain Jardine yard has a solid record here and he has placed once from two starts on heavy ground.
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7Ashen52/100
Ashen is a modest performer who has run creditably on his last three starts and has already won over this trip. He has course experience having won here from four runs and has handled heavy ground when placing on his only try. Both trainer and jockey have solid records at Ayr while dropping in class.
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8Emery Down52/100
Emery Down is a modest performer who has shown consistent form this year with a recent win at this trip. He placed on his only visit to Ayr and the trainer has a solid record at the track. He has only run once on heavy ground and failed to trouble the judge that day while stepping up in class.
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9Tactical Plan42/100
Tactical Plan is a modest performer who has been placed on both previous visits to Ayr and handles heavy ground well with a win and a place from just two attempts. He drops back from a mile to a trip he has won at twice before after some moderate recent efforts. Ed Dunlop has a solid 15% strike rate here while Hector Crouch is less effective with only a 5% record from 20 rides.
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10Valentine Catcher39/100
Valentine Catcher is a modest performer who has been consistent of late without winning, finishing in the first three on three of his last five starts. He has run only once at Ayr and once on heavy ground, both without placing, so those remain unknowns. He steps up in trip today having been placed at this distance before.
KTB verdict
Cisco Disco looks the most solid option in a race where several hold strong course claims. His five wins from 24 starts at Ayr, coupled with two heavy-ground victories from just four attempts, give him a clear edge on the conditions, and the drop back to a trip he has won three times is another plus. The selection’s ability to produce a late effort fits the expected steadily-run shape, though he will need to overcome both a wide draw and the modest record of his rider at the track. Main dangers are Empirestateofmind, who is unbeaten in three visits to Ayr, Stanage, who is proven at the venue and on the ground, and the in-form One Night Thunder, who has already won here and on heavy. Monsieur Kodi cannot be entirely dismissed on his course record but the heavy-ground question is a concern.
KTB Selection Cisco Disco
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:14 UTC, 8 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Empirestateofmind | 15/8 | Bet Victor |
| Monsieur Kodi | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Ashen | 7/1 | Sporting Index |
| Emery Down | 17/2 | Midnite |
| Valentine Catcher | 6/1 | BoyleSports |
This is the narrative read of the 4:05 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ayr results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won the most times at Ayr?
Cisco Disco has won five times from 24 starts at Ayr.
How many of the principals are usually held up?
All five principals are usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which horse has the best heavy-ground record among the principals?
Cisco Disco has two wins from four starts on heavy ground.
Who is the only unbeaten horse at Ayr in the field?
Empirestateofmind has won all three starts at Ayr.
Which runner is dropping back in trip after moderate recent efforts?
Tactical Plan drops back from a mile to a trip he has won at twice before.
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