4:05 Cork
The Irish Stallion Farms EBF Abergwaun Stakes is a Listed race over five furlongs at Cork on good to yielding ground. A field of ten useful and fair performers assembles, with the KTB numbers highlighting a clear top pick on the strength of its course record, trip effectiveness and trainer's local record. Most of the field is held up, which adds significance given the expected pace shape.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with little to pressure it, suggesting an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in. Cardiff By The Sea is the only front-runner in the field and is likely to set the pace from stall one, while the remaining nine runners are all held up types who will be produced with their efforts late. The key question is whether the leader can get away and whether the closers, including the selection, can find the necessary pace to close the gap on this ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Kendall Roy KTB Selection73/100
Kendall Roy is a useful performer who has won twice at this track from seven runs and also has a solid strike rate at today's trip. He acts on the ground having won his only start on good to yielding and looks well placed from stall three. The trainer has a 15% strike rate at Cork with an A/E of 1.58 from 20 runs, while the jockey's 7% strike rate at the track from 599 rides is offset by the horse's own course record. Stepping up in class, his recent form reads 001936. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is the KTB selection.
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2Rosie Frith57/100
Rosie Frith is a useful performer who has won four times over this trip including a success at Cork. She has a solid record here with one win from four runs and her recent form shows she remains competitive at this level. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at the track from 12 runs while the jockey operates at 9% from 535 rides. Her recent form figures read 801441. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she is drawn in stall nine.
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3Xerling57/100
Xerling is a useful performer who has already won at this track from a single visit and has solid recent form including a second at this level. Dropping back to 5f is a positive as she has won at the trip before. The trainer holds an 18% strike rate at Cork with an A/E of 1.26 from 34 runs while the jockey's 6% strike rate at the track from 225 rides is a slight negative. Her recent form reads 0-2120 and she remains unproven on good to yielding ground. Usually held up, though with medium confidence in that assessment, she is drawn in stall five.
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4Brussels56/100
Brussels is a useful performer who has been largely out of form this season with a string of modest efforts. He has placed twice at this trip but remains unproven on good to yielding ground. The trainer continues to enjoy a 22% strike rate at Cork with an A/E of 0.89 from 662 runs while the jockey's strike rate here is 10% from 654 rides. His recent form reads -64050. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall four.
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5Erosandpsyche55/100
Erosandpsyche is a useful performer with a solid career record and has won over this trip four times from 24 starts. He has course experience here at Cork where he has won once from six runs and is three from three on good to yielding ground without scoring. The trainer operates at a 6% strike rate from 34 runs at Cork while the jockey is on 7% from 336 rides at the track. Stepping up in class, his recent form reads 338258. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall six.
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6Gazelle d'Or54/100
Gazelle d'Or is a useful performer who has run well at this track without winning. Dropping back to 5f looks a plus given three wins from seven starts at the trip and a solid record on good to yielding ground with two wins from four. The trainer's modest 2% strike rate at Cork from 44 runs is a negative though the jockey is more positive with a 15% record here from 636 rides. Recent form reads 0-7022 and she is usually held up.
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7Likedbymike52/100
Likedbymike is a useful performer who has won over this trip and showed his best form when landing a race here over 6f last season. He drops back to 5f today which asks a fresh question while the trainer's modest 2% strike-rate at Cork from 64 runs is another negative. The jockey's solid 15% record at the track from 472 rides offers some compensation and the horse handles the ground having won his only start on good to yielding. Recent form reads 429301 and he is usually held up.
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8Cardiff By The Sea49/100
Cardiff By The Sea is a fair performer who won on his only previous start at this track and has also scored at this trip. Recent form has been mixed and the first-time headgear is now applied after a couple of lesser efforts. The trainer holds a 14% strike rate at Cork with an A/E of 1.05 from 130 runs while the jockey's strike rate here is 9% from 671 rides. He remains unproven on good to yielding ground and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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9Focaccia48/100
Focaccia is a fair performer who has been busy this year and shown a mixed bag of results with a win at this trip earlier in the season. He drops back to 5f today after his latest run over 6f while his record on good to yielding ground reads no win or place from two starts. The trainer holds a solid 14% strike rate at Cork from 130 runs but the jockey is operating at a modest 8% from 172 rides here. Recent form reads 178286 and he is usually held up.
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10Sarahmae46/100
Sarahmae is a useful performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins from her last six starts. She has won over this trip on five occasions and also has a win from three runs at Cork. The trainer's modest 4% strike-rate at the track from 441 runs and the jockey's 3% record here from 166 rides are both negatives, while she remains unproven on good to yielding ground. Recent form reads 112656 and she is usually held up.
KTB verdict
Kendall Roy stands out as the KTB selection. He brings a strong course record with two wins from seven starts at Cork, has won on good to yielding ground at the only attempt, and is well drawn in stall three for a race in which most runners are held up. The trainer's healthy local record adds to the case. Main dangers are Rosie Frith and Xerling, both useful sorts with course form who can be expected to come from off the pace, while Brussels and Erosandpsyche are others who cannot be entirely ruled out on their best days.
KTB Selection Kendall Roy
This is the narrative read of the 4:05 Cork. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Cork racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Cork results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
What is the expected pace shape and how does it affect the race?
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting an uncontested lead that can be hard for closers to peg back, with Cardiff By The Sea the only front-runner and the other nine runners all held up.
How many wins has Kendall Roy recorded at Cork?
Two wins from seven runs at the track.
Which horse is stepping up in class and has won on good to yielding ground at the only attempt?
Kendall Roy.
Which runner is unproven on good to yielding ground but has already won at Cork from a single visit?
Xerling.
Who is the only front-runner in the field and what flag does he carry?
Cardiff By The Sea, who carries first-time headgear.
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