4:45 Wolverhampton (AW)
This Class 6 nursery handicap division at Wolverhampton over 7f on standard ground brings together a dozen two-year-olds, several of whom are dropping in class. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Navy Light heading the numbers on 60, followed by Printing Money on 54 and Global Success on 52. Several runners arrive unproven on the surface, and the first-time headgear on the selection adds an extra layer of interest in a race where the pace shape is expected to play a significant part.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners present, which raises the strong possibility of the pace collapsing in the latter stages. This scenario would play to the strengths of horses that race with cover and can deliver their effort late. The key question is whether the prominent and front-running types can dictate matters or if the race will fall into the lap of the hold-up performers coming from off the strong gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Navy Light KTB Selection60/100
Navy Light tops the KTB Fit ratings on 60 and is the selection. A lightly raced and progressive sort with form figures of 4238, he drops in class from an official rating of 65. The Richard and Peter Fahey yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Wolverhampton with an A/E of 1.41, while Oisin Orr brings a 16% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.1. Usually prominent and racing handily, he could sit close to what is likely to be a strong pace, and the first-time headgear is now applied as he makes his debut on standard ground having had no previous runs on it. He has no course form on record but is expected to be to the fore in the market in a field of 12.
-
2Printing Money54/100
Printing Money sits second in the KTB Fit order on 54 and has shown enough to be taken seriously. His recent form reads 967391, including a win on his sole start on standard ground, and he has already won here at Wolverhampton from one visit. The Dylan Cunha stable posts a 16% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.99, and Robert Havlin has a 13% strike rate with an A/E of 0.88. A confirmed front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is proven on the surface and at the course, which could be valuable if he helps set the strong pace anticipated. He is rated 62 and is likely to attract support in a field of 12.
-
3Global Success52/100
Global Success is rated 52 on KTB Fit and drops in class from an OR of 65. His form reads 525349 and he is held up, usually producing his effort late, which could be ideal given the strong pace likely to unfold. The J S Moore yard has a modest 9% strike rate at Wolverhampton with an A/E of 0.83, but Oisin Murphy is a significant booking with a 23% strike rate at the track and an A/E of 0.94. He has no previous experience of standard ground and no course form, yet the combination of his run-style and the jockey could see him finishing with purpose if the leaders go hard early. He is expected to feature in the market in a field of 12.
-
4Odegaard51/100
Odegaard is closely matched on KTB Fit with a mark of 51 and arrives from form of 545 while dropping in class from an OR of 65. The Micky Hammond yard has a 7% strike rate at Wolverhampton with an A/E of 0.89, and Aiden Brookes has a 9% strike rate with an A/E of 1.08. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he fits the profile that could benefit if the strong pace collapses. Unproven on standard ground with no course form, he remains open to improvement as a three-race maiden and is likely to be in the mix at SP in a field of 12.
-
5Hello You Ten48/100
Hello You Ten is rated 48 on KTB Fit and has form figures of 630382 from an OR of 63. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he could be involved in setting the strong tempo. The Jamie Osborne stable has a 13% strike rate at Wolverhampton with an A/E of 0.88, though William Carver has a 7% strike rate with an A/E of 0.64. He has been competitive on standard ground without winning from one placed effort, and he has no course form. While not the highest rated on the KTB numbers, his pace profile makes him relevant in a race where the lead could be contested hard in a field of 12.
-
6Ventura Power46/100
Ventura Power is rated 46 on KTB Fit with form of 64964 from an OR of 62. Usually held up, he has two runs on standard without winning or placing and has been sixth and ninth in two visits to Wolverhampton. The George Boughey yard has a 17% strike rate at the track, but apprentice Megan Smith is 0-1 here.
-
7Cubbie's Dream46/100
Cubbie's Dream has a KTB Fit of 46 and form figures of 947 from an OR of 59 while dropping in class. He typically settles in midfield and is unproven on standard ground with no course form. The Jonathan Portman yard has a 10% strike rate at Wolverhampton and Harry Davies a 13% strike rate.
-
8Honeymoon Bear44/100
Honeymoon Bear is rated 44 on KTB Fit with form of 74440 from an OR of 57. Usually held up, he has two runs on standard without placing and no course form. Joseph Parr has a 14% strike rate at Wolverhampton and Jack Mitchell a 17% strike rate.
-
9Pride's Queen40/100
Pride's Queen has a KTB Fit of 40 and form of 805 from an OR of 55 while dropping in class. She typically races in midfield, has one run on standard without placing and finished fifth on her sole visit to Wolverhampton. Marco Botti has a 16% strike rate at the track and Marco Ghiani a 13% strike rate.
-
10Carrow Road40/100
Carrow Road is rated 40 on KTB Fit with form of 6906 from an OR of 59 while dropping in class. Usually held up, he has two runs on standard without placing and no course form. Chelsea Banham has a 10% strike rate at Wolverhampton and Joey Haynes a 7% strike rate.
-
11Miss You Nights40/100
Miss You Nights has a KTB Fit of 40 and form of 845 from an OR of 56 while dropping in class. Usually held up, she has one run on standard without placing and finished fourth on her only visit to Wolverhampton. Jack Channon has a 17% strike rate at the track and Clifford Lee a 13% strike rate.
-
12Ten of Clubs39/100
Ten of Clubs is the lowest rated on KTB Fit at 39 with form of 88030 from an OR of 58. Usually held up, he has two runs on standard without placing and finished eighth on his one visit to Wolverhampton. Scott Dixon has a 7% strike rate at the track and Tyler Heard a 6% strike rate.
KTB verdict
Navy Light is the KTB Selection and tops the Fit ratings in a race where his prominent run-style could be an asset if he can avoid the worst of any pace collapse. Dropping in class with the first-time headgear and backed by strong trainer and jockey figures at Wolverhampton, he has the right profile to take advantage. The main dangers are likely to come from Printing Money, who is proven at the course and on the surface and could set the pace, and Global Success, whose hold-up style aligns well with the expected strong gallop and who benefits from the booking of Oisin Murphy.
KTB Selection Navy Light
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 19 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Navy Light | 16/1 | William Hill |
| Printing Money | 2/1 | BoyleSports |
| Global Success | 8/1 | Bet365 |
| Odegaard | 10/1 | William Hill |
| Hello You Ten | 4/1 | 7Bet |
| Ventura Power | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Cubbie's Dream | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Honeymoon Bear | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Pride's Queen | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Carrow Road | 18/1 | William Hill |
| Miss You Nights | 16/1 | William Hill |
| Ten of Clubs | 28/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 Wolverhampton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wolverhampton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Wolverhampton (AW) results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Wolverhampton (AW) racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is unproven on standard ground but drops in class with first-time headgear?
Navy Light
How many runners have already won over course and distance or on the surface?
Printing Money has won here from one visit and won his only start on standard ground.
Which jockey has the highest strike rate at Wolverhampton among those riding in this race?
Oisin Murphy with a 23% strike rate.
Which two horses are most likely to set or contest the strong pace?
Printing Money and Hello You Ten, both confirmed front-runners.
Which hold-up performers could be favoured if the pace collapses late?
Global Success, Odegaard, Ventura Power, Honeymoon Bear, Carrow Road and Miss You Nights.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies