4:47 Carlisle
This Class 5 handicap over 7f173y at Carlisle on good to soft ground brings together an 11-runner field where the majority are modest performers. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Swift Salian heading the ratings on 64, followed closely by Albemagic on 62 and Rewired on 60. Several runners are dropping in class, and with a strong pace anticipated the race could suit those capable of coming from off the speed.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is likely given the presence of two or more habitual front-runners, with Swift Salian and Albemagic both tending to make the running or race prominently. This shape could see the leaders go hard early and potentially collapse in the closing stages, which would play into the hands of hold-up horses. The key question is whether the prominent pair can dictate matters and hold on, or if the race will fall to one of the patient runners coming from the rear.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Swift Salian KTB Selection64/100
Swift Salian is a modest performer who has been consistent of late with four seconds from his last six starts. He has winning form over course and distance on good to soft ground, and the yard has a solid 17% strike rate here from 35 runs. Stall 11 is a bit wide but his recent placed efforts suggest he remains competitive at this level. The five-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace, which could be significant given the expected strong pace. Dropping in class looks a positive, and the combination of trainer David & Nicola Barron and jockey Callum Rodriguez carries a 17/122 record at the track. With recent form figures of -22208 he enters the race in good heart.
-
2Albemagic62/100
Albemagic is a modest performer who has shown some ability on her two starts at this trip, finishing second on the latest of them. She was well held on her only visit to Carlisle though and this looks a stiffer task on just her fourth run. The three-year-old is dropping in class here and tends to make the running or race on the pace, which could see her involved in the expected strong early gallop. Trainer Steph Hollinshead has a solid 21% strike rate at Carlisle from 34 runs, while jockey Clifford Lee is 21% at the track from 117 rides. Her recent form reads 722, and she remains unproven on good to soft ground.
-
3Rewired60/100
Rewired is a fair performer who has dropped sharply in trip from his latest 2m run and has won over today's distance in the past. He has placed on his only visit to Carlisle and handles good to soft ground well with three wins and six places from 12 starts. The eight-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late, which could be an advantage if the strong pace collapses. Trainer Tristan Davidson has a 10% strike rate at Carlisle from 79 runs, while jockey Rowan Scott is 8% from 145 rides here. Recent form figures read 19442/ and he is dropping in class.
-
4Bellasio51/100
Bellasio is a modest performer who has won twice at Carlisle from five runs and also landed a race at today's trip. He has shown consistency this year with a string of solid efforts mixed in with the occasional poor run, and the trainer holds a respectable record at the track. The five-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late, fitting the profile that could benefit from a strong pace. On good to soft ground he has been competitive once from two starts without winning. Trainer Grant Tuer is 16% at Carlisle from 96 runs and jockey Sam James is 15% from 193 rides, with recent form of 552100.
-
5Arkenstaar49/100
Arkenstaar is a modest performer who has run three times here without winning but has placed once. He has two wins from nine starts on good to soft and has won at today's trip though his recent form of 114-30 shows mixed results. The six-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late, which aligns well with the anticipated strong pace that could collapse. Trainer Michael Dods has a 9% strike rate at Carlisle from 663 runs, while jockey Connor Beasley is on board. He is drawn in stall 1 and comes into the race with a KTB Fit of 49.
-
6Hostility49/100
Hostility is a modest performer who has won twice at Carlisle from five runs and also has a solid record at today's trip with two wins from four attempts. Recent form of 721513 shows a useful mix of placed efforts and victories, while he has already placed on good to soft ground. The four-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late.
-
7Barley48/100
Barley is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning. He has won over this trip and at Carlisle, though his record on good to soft is poor with no placed efforts from seven starts. The yard's modest strike rate here adds little encouragement.
-
8Spiritoftheblues47/100
Spiritoftheblues is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning. Placed once in three starts at this trip and the yard has a solid record at Carlisle. Going suitability remains unknown on this lightly-raced profile.
-
9Epidavros44/100
Epidavros is a modest performer who has won once from four starts at Carlisle and also has a win on good to soft ground. Drops back in trip today having last run over 1m1f and has scored at this distance in the past. First-time headgear is now tried while the yard's modest 4% strike rate at the track offers little encouragement.
-
10Zermatt Star42/100
Zermatt Star is a modest performer who showed improved form to win a similar race over this trip at Redcar last time. Drawn in stall 8 and has a fair record at Carlisle through his trainer's small yard sample. Trip looks suitable while the going remains an unknown on the balance of just seven career runs.
-
11Tee Aitch Aye41/100
Tee Aitch Aye is a modest performer who has been placed twice from three runs at Carlisle without winning. Dropping back from 1m to 7¾f today asks a fresh question having failed to score in two previous attempts at the trip. Trainer Iain Jardine operates at an 8% strike rate here from 366 runs.
KTB verdict
Swift Salian is the KTB Selection. He is a modest performer who has been consistent of late with four seconds from his last six starts, boasts winning form over course and distance on good to soft ground, and benefits from the yard's solid 17% strike rate at Carlisle from 35 runs. His front-running style could be key in a race where the strong pace is expected to test the leaders, and his recent placed efforts suggest he remains competitive at this level. The main dangers are likely to come from Albemagic, who has shown ability at the trip and is dropping in class, and Rewired, who drops sharply in distance, handles the ground and is suited by a hold-up ride in a race that could collapse late.
KTB Selection Swift Salian
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 9 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Swift Salian | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Albemagic | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Rewired | 40/1 | Bet Victor |
| Bellasio | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Arkenstaar | 33/1 | Bet Victor |
| Hostility | 11/2 | Bet Victor |
| Barley | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Spiritoftheblues | 10/1 | Midnite |
| Epidavros | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Zermatt Star | 3/1 | Bet365 |
| Tee Aitch Aye | 11/4 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 4:47 Carlisle. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Carlisle racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Carlisle results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping sharply in trip from 2m and has previous winning form at today's distance?
Rewired
How many wins has Swift Salian recorded at Carlisle?
1 from 3
Which runner is having its first-time headgear fitted?
Epidavros
Which two horses tend to make the running or race prominently in a race with a strong pace likely?
Swift Salian and Albemagic
Which horse has won twice at Carlisle from five runs and also has two wins from four attempts at today's trip?
Hostility
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies