4:50 Naas
This TRM Calphormin apprentice handicap over 1m2f149y at Naas on soft ground brings together a field of 12 modest performers. With no obvious front-runner the pace shape points to a steadily-run, tactical race in which being handy could prove advantageous. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Killyclogher Rose on 62, with the next four principals all between 53 and 59, underlining the competitive but largely exposed nature of the contest.
How the race shapes up
Lacking a natural leader, the race is expected to be run at a steady tempo with the field likely to bunch early. Most principals and field runners are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the key question will be whether those positioned handy can steal an advantage or if the closers will be able to weave through in the straight on this soft surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Killyclogher Rose KTB Selection62/100
Killyclogher Rose is a modest performer who won on her only previous visit to Naas and has also scored at today's trip. She drops back from 1m4f having been well held on her last two starts, so the shorter distance is an unknown that could suit or expose her. The trainer holds a solid record here with a 10% strike rate and A/E 1.03 from 221 runs, while the jockey's small-sample figures of 8% strike rate and A/E 1.48 from 12 rides at Naas look encouraging. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she has no experience of soft ground. Her recent form reads 3-5160 and she carries an official rating of 67 from draw 10.
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2Jp's Express59/100
Jp's Express is a modest performer with a mixed recent record that includes a win and a placed effort on soft ground. Dropping back in trip today to an untried 1m2f poses a fresh question. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Naas from 223 runs is offset by the jockey's strong 20% record and A/E 1.92 from a small sample of 10 rides at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has been competitive without winning on soft from two starts and finished 13th on his only previous visit to Naas. His recent form is 315630 from an OR of 68 out of draw 4.
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3Solomon Coop57/100
Solomon Coop is a modest performer who has been out of the frame in all but one of his last 14 starts. He has shown a bit of spark on soft ground but was well held on his only previous visit to Naas. The trainer continues to hold his own at this track with an 11% strike rate and A/E 2.2 from 27 runs, though the jockey is 0-1 here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the trip remains an unknown at this level. Recent form reads 000-05 from an official rating of 65 out of stall 1.
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4Vlhova56/100
Vlhova is a modest performer whose recent form has been poor with three straight duck eggs after earlier placed efforts. The trainer has a solid 12% strike rate and A/E 1.2 from 102 runs at Naas while the 4 lb claimer has too few rides here to judge. Steps up in trip today having been placed once on soft ground but the first run at this track leaves plenty unknown. Usually held up with medium confidence in that assessment, her recent form is 22-000 from an OR of 68 out of draw 2.
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5Sylkie53/100
Sylkie is a modest performer who has shown a bit of ability at this track with a placing on his only visit. He has been out of form on his last two starts and is now 0-6 on soft ground. Dropping back in trip raises a fresh question. The trainer has a 13% strike rate and A/E 2.17 from a small sample of 8 runs at Naas, though the jockey is 0-3 here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his recent form reads 734-00 from an official rating of 60 out of draw 9.
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6Northern Ruler50/100
Northern Ruler is a modest performer who has not won for a long time and showed little spark in five starts last season. He has run twice at Naas without placing and has been beaten on all three soft-ground attempts. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate here from 269 runs while the jockey remains winless from seven rides at the track.
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7Espritroyale50/100
Espritroyale is a modest performer with a string of placed efforts but no win in nine starts. He drops back from 1m4f to a trip where he has been placed once from two attempts, and he has shown he can be competitive on soft ground. The trainer has a solid 9% strike rate at Naas from 367 runs while the claiming jockey has had too few rides here to judge.
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8Love Orchid49/100
Love Orchid is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning, with form figures of 640236 showing a mix of placed efforts and lesser runs. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate from 1189 runs at Naas. The jockey has no recorded rides at the track, the horse is unproven on soft ground, and it is now being asked a fresh question by dropping back in trip.
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9Senna's Girl48/100
Senna's Girl is a modest performer who has shown occasional flashes of ability but remains winless after 18 starts. She ran poorly when tried here once before and steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question. The trainer has a modest record at Naas while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge.
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10Guy's Girl45/100
Guy's Girl is a modest performer with a mixed recent record that includes two wins but also several poor efforts. The yard has a modest 7% strike rate at Naas from a large sample while the jockey is 0-7 at the track. It steps up in trip today with no experience of soft ground and first-time headgear.
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11Rhythm King41/100
Rhythm King is a modest performer with a poor recent record and no win in the last three years. He has placed once from three runs at Naas but the trainer's 3% strike rate from 60 runs here and the jockey's 0-from-10 record offer little encouragement. He steps up in trip for the first time on soft ground where he has shown some ability with a win and two places from six runs.
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12Pure Granite29/100
Pure Granite is a limited performer who has struggled to make an impact in eight starts and arrives here off the back of two modest efforts. He steps up in trip again having failed to trouble the judge in two previous runs at this distance while his sole soft-ground outing brought no reward. The trainer has too few runs at Naas to judge and the jockey is still waiting for a first winner from 15 rides at the track.
KTB verdict
Killyclogher Rose is the KTB Selection. She won on her only previous visit to Naas, has scored at today's trip, and drops back from 1m4f in a race where the shorter distance could suit. The trainer's solid record at the track and the jockey's encouraging small-sample figures add to the appeal for a modest performer who usually comes from off the pace. Her main dangers are Jp's Express, who brings soft-ground placed form and a strong jockey record at Naas, and Solomon Coop, who has shown spark on soft despite a modest overall profile. Vlhova and Sylkie complete the main principals in a race where the steadily-run shape may favour those who can time their challenge from mid-division.
KTB Selection Killyclogher Rose
This is the narrative read of the 4:50 Naas. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Naas racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Naas results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Naas racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is proven to have won over course and distance or at this trip previously?
Killyclogher Rose won here on her only previous visit to Naas and has also scored at today's trip.
How many of the principals are unproven on soft ground?
Two of the top five principals are unproven on soft: Killyclogher Rose and Love Orchid is in the field but among principals it is Killyclogher Rose; Sylkie is 0-6 on soft.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Naas among those represented in the principals?
Sylkie's trainer has a 13% strike rate at Naas with an A/E of 2.17 from 8 runs, while Solomon Coop's trainer is on 11% with A/E 2.2 from 27 runs.
What is the run-style profile across the entire field?
All twelve runners are described as held up, usually producing their effort late, with high or medium confidence in that assessment.
Which horse steps up in trip for the first time in this race?
Several horses step up or drop in trip including Vlhova, Senna's Girl, Guy's Girl, Rhythm King and Pure Granite; among them Senna's Girl and Guy's Girl are explicitly noted as stepping up in trip for the first time.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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