3:40 Naas
The Irish Stallion Farms EBF Bluebell Stakes is a competitive Listed race over 1m3f202y at Naas on soft ground, featuring a field of 16 that includes several smart and useful performers. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by a 4-year-old on 64 with strong recent handicap form, followed closely by a course-winning 5-year-old on 62 and a progressive 3-year-old on 59 with excellent local records. Overall the numbers point to a race where class, course experience and an ability to handle the ground will be decisive, with the strong pace likely to play a significant part in the outcome.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up the pace is expected to be strong, and the race could collapse late in the straight. Several principals, including the selection, Beset and Caught U Sleeping, are confirmed hold-up types who will be looking to come from off the pace once the leaders tire. The key question is whether the prominent and front-running runners can dictate matters early enough to withstand the late challenge of the hold-up brigade on this stamina-testing trip.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Horse details are not available KTB Selection64/100
This smart performer has won at today's trip and showed strong form when second in a big-field handicap at the Curragh last month. He arrives with an official rating of 108 and recent form figures of 2-9168, though he has only placed once from one run on soft ground so far. Drawn widest of all in stall 16, he will need to produce his effort late having been held up in his races. The trainer and jockey both sit on 9% strike rates at Naas from large samples, with the yard recording an A/E of 0.9 from 367 runs and the rider an A/E of 0.8 from 824 rides.
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2Beset62/100
Beset is a smart performer with a solid recent record of 1-1251 and has won at this trip three times from nine attempts. Rated 106, the 5-year-old has course experience in his favour having won here from two runs and goes well on soft ground with two wins and three places from four starts. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 1 which could prove advantageous if the race develops as expected. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard posts a 12% strike rate at Naas while jockey J M Sheridan is operating at 7%.
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3Caught U Sleeping59/100
A useful performer, Caught U Sleeping has won two of three starts here and arrives in solid form with a string of placed efforts shown by his recent figures of 123343. Rated 102, the 3-year-old steps up in trip again having been competitive at this distance without winning, and the soft ground should suit on the evidence of one placed run. He is a confirmed hold-up type who usually produces his effort late. Both trainer Noel Meade and jockey Colin Keane have strong records at Naas, with respective strike rates of 13% and 17%.
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4Moments of Joy57/100
Moments of Joy is a useful performer who has been a bit disappointing since a placed effort on debut last season. Now trying a new trip and first-time headgear, the 3-year-old is rated 98 with recent form figures of -64050. He tends to make the running or race on the pace and will be one of those setting the strong gallop. The Aidan O'Brien yard and Ryan Moore have strong records at Naas, but the horse remains unproven on soft ground and this is his course debut at this level.
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5Snapretend55/100
Snapretend is a useful performer who has been consistent at a similar level this year with two seconds from his last six runs. Rated 101, the 4-year-old has won on soft ground and has placed twice at today's trip though he steps up in distance for the first time since last season. He tends to make the running or race on the pace and will be prominent early in what is likely to be a strong gallop. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Naas while the jockey is operating at 5% here.
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6Capichera55/100
Capichera is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year, finishing in the first three on four of her last six starts. She steps up in trip today having already been placed over this distance, though she remains unproven on soft ground, and both trainer and jockey are making their first appearance at Naas.
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7Shaool53/100
Shaool is a useful performer who has been largely out of form this season with a string of mid-division finishes. He has only one run at Naas and no win at the trip yet though he has placed twice over today's distance, while trainer and jockey both operate at a modest strike-rate here.
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8Acula51/100
A fair 3-year-old, Acula showed promise when winning on debut before finishing fourth here over shorter. The step up in trip poses a fresh question while the soft ground remains unknown given just two runs to date, though the trainer has a solid 12% strike-rate at Naas and the jockey is operating above expectations on the figures.
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9Chica Guerrera50/100
Chica Guerrera is a useful performer who arrives in solid form with a string of placed efforts this year. She has already won on soft ground and at today's trip, though she steps back up in distance from her most recent 1m run, with the yard's modest record at Naas and the jockey's limited sample here adding some caution.
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10Zadawa50/100
Zadawa has shown steady improvement and finished with a win last time out over today's trip on this ground. The form reads well for a fair 3-year-old and the Naas connections add some confidence, while trainer and jockey both have established records at the track though neither is above average.
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11Chablis Rock50/100
Chablis Rock is a fair 3-year-old with solid recent form including a win and two placings from his last four starts. He has already won at this trip from two attempts and holds strong course connections through his trainer, though the yard and jockey both record modest strike rates at Naas while the small sample on soft ground leaves that side of his profile unknown.
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12Chasing Paradise47/100
Chasing Paradise is a useful performer who has shown steady progress and finished a solid second on his most recent start. The step up to this trip asks a fresh question having failed to land a blow in his only previous attempt at it, while trainer and jockey both have solid if unspectacular records at Naas.
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13Deressa46/100
Deressa is a useful performer who has won her last two starts and arrives in decent form. She has been well below par both times she has run at Naas and is unproven on soft ground having never raced on it, while dropping back in trip today raises a fresh question as she has failed to place in two previous tries at this distance.
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14Camino Vino46/100
Camino Vino is a fair 3-year-old who showed useful promise when winning on debut but has failed to build on it in two subsequent starts. The yard has a solid 9% strike rate at Naas from a large sample while the jockey operates at a 4% strike rate here from over 500 rides, and the trip looks a fresh question having failed to land a blow in one previous attempt at this distance.
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15Mawhibah38/100
Mawhibah has shown steady improvement and landed a handicap last time out to confirm fair ability. She steps up in trip today having already placed once at this distance though the move asks a fresh question of her, while the trainer holds a solid 12% strike rate at Naas and the jockey is operating at a 5% strike rate from 215 rides here.
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16So Must I37/100
So Must I is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning since his maiden success last year. He drops back in trip today having failed to land a blow over longer distances recently, while his sole soft-ground run yielded no reward, and although the trainer holds a solid record at Naas the jockey's strike rate here is modest.
KTB verdict
The KTB Selection is the 4-year-old rated 108 who showed strong form when second in a big-field handicap at the Curragh last month. He has already won at this trip, and while he is only placed once from one run on soft and is drawn in stall 16, his class and late run-style should see him well-suited if the strong pace materialises as expected. His main dangers are Beset, who brings course form, a strong soft-ground record and a recent winning sequence, and Caught U Sleeping, who has an excellent record at Naas and should appreciate the step back up in trip on this ground. Moments of Joy and Snapretend are likely to be prominent early but both carry unknowns regarding the surface or trip.
KTB Selection Horse details are not available
This is the narrative read of the 3:40 Naas. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Naas racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Naas results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Naas racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Naas?
Caught U Sleeping has won two of three starts here.
How many horses are confirmed hold-up types?
Several principals including the selection, Beset, Caught U Sleeping, Shaool, Deressa and So Must I are usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which runners are unproven on soft ground?
Moments of Joy, Capichera, Acula, Deressa and Camino Vino have no runs on soft ground.
Who sets the early pace according to the run-styles?
Moments of Joy, Snapretend and Mawhibah tend to make the running or race on the pace.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Naas in this field?
Aidan O'Brien has a 22% strike rate at Naas from 1439 runs.
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