5:37 Downpatrick
This 2m1f165y Dunleath Flat Race at Downpatrick on good ground brings together a field of 13, the majority of whom are unexposed or lightly raced with limited form in the book. The KTB Fit ratings point to a race with several debutants and modest performers where the top horses sit in the low-to-mid 50s, underlining the tentative nature of the contest. Trainer strike rates at the track vary markedly, with some yards showing strong historical returns and others struggling, while the overall data confidence remains low given the lack of established form.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a clear leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy is likely to pay. With several runners tending to be held up, including principal contenders Ifuknowuknow, Orderly Conduct, Myluckymaker, S T Hamo, Hadahi, Poet's Creek, Bresil Belle, Loves A Laugh and Old Court, the race could develop into a test of timing from off the pace. The key question is whether any horse can produce an effective effort late in a race where the steady tempo may not fully suit pronounced closers.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Guitar Star KTB Selection63/100
Guitar Star is a debutant so the form picture is blank. The yard has a strong 40% strike-rate from five runners at Downpatrick and the jockey is related. Pedigree and sales background are the only other guide available and both are untested at this track and trip. The 4-year-old is the KTB Selection in a race where many runners bring limited information. Connections' local record offers encouragement in what looks a steadily-run affair where being well placed could be advantageous.
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2Ask The Lord56/100
Ask The Lord is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on. The yard has a strong recent record at Downpatrick and the jockey is a regular here, though his own strike rate is modest. First-time headgear is applied and the low data confidence means any judgement rests almost entirely on the undisclosed pedigree and sales background. The 5-year-old arrives with a 22% trainer strike rate at the track from nine runs. In a tactical contest lacking an obvious leader, the headgear may help him settle and produce an effort at the right time.
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3Ifuknowuknow55/100
Ifuknowuknow is lightly raced with just two runs and modest form on paper so far. The trainer has a strong 43% strike rate at Downpatrick from 14 runs while the jockey is operating at a more modest 8% from 13 rides here. Stepping up in trip today asks a fresh question of a horse with too little data to judge its effectiveness on this ground or at this distance. Usually held up and producing its effort late, the 5-year-old will be reliant on the steady tempo not leaving him too far back. The yard's excellent local record remains the main positive.
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4Orderly Conduct49/100
Orderly Conduct is lightly raced and only two runs to go on so read with real caution. Showed a bit when third on debut then ran to a similar level when sixth last time. Trainer has a solid 15% strike rate here from a big sample while the jockey is operating at 11%. The 4-year-old is usually held up and produces its effort late. Placed once from two starts on good ground, he brings a modest level of form into a race where the tactical pace may suit those who can time their challenge from off the pace.
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5Thranduil47/100
Thranduil is a debutant so the form picture is entirely blank. The pedigree and sales background offer the only clues and with low data confidence any view has to be tentative. Trainer Paul Nolan has a solid 12% strike rate from 193 runs at Downpatrick while the claiming jockey has too few rides here to draw any conclusions. The 5-year-old represents connections with a respectable local record. In a steadily-run race, his ability to handle the conditions will only be known once the tapes go up.
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6Myluckymaker47/100
Myluckymaker has shown consistent placed form on his last three starts and remains lightly raced with scope to improve. He drops back in trip today having failed to land a blow at this distance on his only previous attempt. The trainer holds a solid 12% strike rate at Downpatrick from a large sample while the jockey's 10% record from ten rides here is more modest. Usually held up, he will need the steady tempo to play to his strengths.
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7Eleen Alana47/100
Eleen Alana is a lightly raced mare with just two runs this year and very limited data overall so any assessment has to be cautious. She showed some promise when third on debut before a lesser effort last time. Trainer has an 8% strike rate from 38 runs at Downpatrick while the jockey has no recorded rides at the track. Typically settles in midfield and has placed on good ground.
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8S T Hamo45/100
S T Hamo has shown some ability on two of his four starts and was placed over this trip last time. The yard's modest record at Downpatrick offers no particular encouragement while the jockey has a solid 31% strike rate here from 108 rides. Trip looks fine but the going remains an unknown with so few runs on the board. Usually held up, the 5-year-old is ridden by a strong local performer in Mr P W Mullins.
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9Hadahi44/100
Hadahi has shown some promise with placed efforts on his last two starts after an early unseat. The drop back in trip today asks a fresh question of him. Trainer Noel C Kelly has a 7% strike rate from 208 runs at Downpatrick while jockey Mr D McGill is 4% from 25 rides here. Usually held up with limited evidence, he has placed on good ground.
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10Poet's Creek42/100
Poet's Creek has only one run on the board and was well held when finishing ninth on debut. The yard has a modest 8% strike rate at Downpatrick from a big sample of runners. Both the jockey and the horse's suitability for the trip and ground remain unknown on this small evidence. Usually held up with limited evidence.
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11Bresil Belle42/100
Bresil Belle has only one run in the last year and remains lightly raced overall so the form picture is thin. The trainer holds a modest 7% strike rate at Downpatrick from a big sample while the jockey is still seeking a first winner here from seven rides. Trip suitability is unproven after one unsuccessful attempt at this distance and the going remains an unknown on such limited evidence. Usually held up with limited evidence.
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12Loves A Laugh42/100
Loves A Laugh has shown consistent placed form in both starts at this track. The yard's modest 6% strike rate from a large sample at Downpatrick suggests limited upside. Dropping back in trip is an unknown factor with only two career runs on the board. Usually held up, the 4-year-old has course form of two thirds.
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13Old Court39/100
Old Court has shown very little so far with a pulled-up effort and a modest fifth from his two starts. The trainer has a poor record at Downpatrick and this lightly-raced 5-year-old brings a small sample of form that makes any firm assessment difficult. The step up in trip is an unknown and the jockey's modest strike rate at the track adds little confidence. Usually held up with limited evidence.
KTB verdict
Guitar Star is the KTB Selection. The debutant comes from a yard with a 40% strike rate at Downpatrick from five runs, and the jockey is related, giving connections a clear local edge in a race where many horses bring limited or modest form. The steadily-run nature of the contest should suit a horse that can be positioned handily. Main dangers include Ask The Lord, who also makes a debut but for a yard in strong form at the track and with first-time headgear, and Ifuknowuknow, whose trainer boasts a 43% strike rate here despite the horse's modest form and step up in trip.
KTB Selection Guitar Star
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:02 UTC, 18 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Guitar Star | 11/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Ask The Lord | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Ifuknowuknow | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Orderly Conduct | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Thranduil | 12/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Myluckymaker | 3/1 | Bet365 |
| Eleen Alana | 33/1 | BetTom |
| S T Hamo | 15/2 | Dragon Bet |
| Hadahi | 6/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Poet's Creek | 80/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Bresil Belle | 50/1 | BetTom |
| Loves A Laugh | 18/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Old Court | 33/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 5:37 Downpatrick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Downpatrick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Downpatrick results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Downpatrick in this field?
S G Carey with a 43% strike rate at Downpatrick from 14 runs.
How many debutants are in the race?
Three debutants: Guitar Star, Ask The Lord and Thranduil.
Which horse has course form at Downpatrick?
Loves A Laugh with two placed efforts from two runs at the track.
Who rides the horse with the highest jockey strike rate at the track?
Mr P W Mullins rides S T Hamo and has a 31% strike rate at Downpatrick from 108 rides.
Which horses are noted as usually held up?
Ifuknowuknow, Orderly Conduct, Myluckymaker, S T Hamo, Hadahi, Poet's Creek, Bresil Belle, Loves A Laugh and Old Court.
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