7:00 Dundalk (AW)
The 7:00 at Dundalk is the second division of a 7f handicap on standard going, featuring a field of 16 limited performers. With no obvious leader and a pace shape that lacks any prominent front-runner, the race is set to be a steadily-run, tactical affair in which handy positioning could prove decisive. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by The Bear Trap on 55, with Boston Max, Whatsin The Stars and Four Blondes all in the 49-52 range, suggesting a race where class, course experience and draw will carry significant weight.
How the race shapes up
Given the absence of any horse that clearly wants the lead and the fact that almost every runner is described as held up, the early pace is likely to be modest. The race should unfold as a steadily-run, tactical event in which those who can be handy without using up too much energy will hold an advantage. The key question is whether any horse can improve its position from a wide draw or whether those with an inside berth and a bit of early toe can steal a march in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1The Bear Trap KTB Selection55/100
The Bear Trap is a limited performer who has won once at this track from seven starts and also has a win at today's trip. Dropping back from 7½f should suit and he has placed form on the standard surface. Adrian McGuinness operates at a 10% strike rate at Dundalk from a huge sample of 1995 runs with an A/E of 0.85, suggesting no strong yard bias either way. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 5 which looks suitable for his run-style in a race that lacks a leader. He comes into this off recent form figures of 50-409 and carries an official rating of 59.
-
2Boston Max52/100
Boston Max is a modest performer who has already won once at this track from three runs and holds solid placed form on standard ground. Recent form is mixed with a win and two places from his last six starts but he is drawn wide in stall 13 today. Gordon Elliott has a 9% strike rate at Dundalk from 293 runs with an A/E of 0.74 while the claiming jockey Nina Doherty has had too few rides here to judge with a 0% strike rate from three attempts. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the three-year-old steps out off an official rating of 60 with form figures of 112543.
-
3Whatsin The Stars49/100
Whatsin The Stars is a limited horse who has shown very little in five starts and was well beaten on his only previous visit here. First-time headgear is now fitted as he steps up to 7f for the first time. Paul W Flynn holds a solid 10% strike rate at Dundalk from 478 runs with an A/E of 1.02 while the claiming jockey Shay Wallace has an above-average record at the track with a 12% strike rate and A/E of 1.65 from 41 rides. Usually held up, he carries an official rating of 45 and recent form figures of 00009.
-
4Four Blondes49/100
Four Blondes is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts. He steps up from 6f to a trip he has won over before though he is unproven on standard going and makes his first visit to Dundalk. Ross O'Sullivan has an 8% strike rate here from 259 runs with an A/E of 0.89 while the jockey Sam Coen is operating at 7% from 151 rides with an A/E of 0.51. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he comes into the race with form figures of 405690 and an official rating of 58.
-
5Simmering Seas48/100
Simmering Seas is a limited performer who has shown bits of ability on turf but is now making its first start at Dundalk on standard ground. The step up to 7f is an unknown and the jockey has a modest 6% strike rate here from 18 rides with an A/E of 0.55. Daniel James Murphy holds a solid 15% record at the track from 160 runs with an A/E of 1.01, while the trainer and jockey combination shows 3/30 (10%) with an A/E of 0.81. Usually held up, the three-year-old carries an official rating of 57 with recent form of 024240.
-
6Battleforsupremacy48/100
Battleforsupremacy is a limited performer who has won once over this trip and once at Dundalk from five runs at each. Recent form has been poor with a string of unplaced efforts and he carries that limited level of ability. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate here from 43 runners adds further caution.
-
7Jazzit45/100
Jazzit is a limited performer who has shown consistency at this track with three placed efforts from as many runs. He steps up to 7f for the first time today having been placed without winning at the distance before, while he has also been competitive on standard ground without scoring. The trainer and jockey both operate at a 7% strike rate here.
-
8Will Be King44/100
Will Be King is a limited class performer who has won twice at this track from 22 starts but has been out of form for most of this year. The yard's modest 6% strike rate here from a huge sample and the jockey's 7% record add little encouragement. Stays this trip but looks vulnerable again on the balance of what he has shown lately.
-
9Polanco44/100
Polanco is a limited performer who has shown very little in seven starts this year and finished last of three when tried over 1m at this track last time. Drops back to 7f where he has been beaten in all five attempts and the trainer's modest 6% strike-rate at Dundalk offers little encouragement. Placed on his only previous run on standard ground but that remains the sum of his positives.
-
10Dervo Annie43/100
Dervo Annie is a limited performer who has shown little for this yard. She has been beaten a long way on both previous runs at this track and remains winless on standard ground. Trip looks about right but the trainer's poor record here adds little confidence.
-
11Hot To Foxtrot39/100
Hot To Foxtrot is a limited performer who has shown bits of form here without ever looking like winning. Has been placed twice at this trip but is now 0-13 this year and has a poor recent record at Dundalk from wide draw 15. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at the track that match the horse's own modest level.
-
12Lady Landhort38/100
Lady Landhort is a limited performer who has won once in five runs at Dundalk but has been well below that level on her last six starts. Dropping back to 7f asks a fresh question after her latest run over a mile and the trainer's modest 5% strike rate here adds little encouragement. Ben Coen has a solid 10% record at the track and the horse does handle the standard surface.
-
13Fontaine Khaled37/100
Fontaine Khaled is a limited horse who has shown little for some time and was well held on his last three starts. The step up to 7f is an open question while he has no experience of the surface and the trainer's record here is poor. Jockey has a solid strike rate at the track but that is the only positive in the profile.
-
14Are You In Or Out35/100
Are You In Or Out is a limited performer who has failed to place in six runs at this track and shown nothing better on standard ground. Steps back up to a trip he has won at before but his recent form is poor and the wide draw is no help from stall 16. Trainer's modest record here adds little confidence.
-
15Alandownunder34/100
Alandownunder is a limited performer who has struggled this year with a string of poor efforts. The yard has a modest 9% strike rate at Dundalk while the jockey is operating at 5% here, and the horse has no experience on standard ground. Stepping up to 7f asks a fresh question after recent runs at 6f.
-
16Thumama Sands34/100
Thumama Sands is a limited performer who has been well beaten in all six starts to date and drops back from 1m today. First-time headgear is tried but the yard and rider both have modest records at this track. Trip looks no better than fair at this level.
KTB verdict
The Bear Trap is the KTB Selection. A limited performer who has already won at this track and at this trip, he drops back from 7½f in a race that should suit his held-up style given the lack of an obvious leader. His placed form on standard ground and inside draw add to the appeal, while the yard's record at Dundalk is modest but without any strong negative bias. Main dangers are Boston Max, who has won here and holds solid placed form on the surface despite a wide draw, and the first-time headgear of Whatsin The Stars, while Four Blondes and Simmering Seas cannot be entirely ruled out in a race where the principals are closely matched on the KTB numbers.
KTB Selection The Bear Trap
This is the narrative read of the 7:00 Dundalk (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Dundalk (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Dundalk (AW) results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Dundalk (AW) racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is The Bear Trap the selection over Boston Max despite the latter's course win?
The Bear Trap is rated highest on KTB Fit at 55 compared to Boston Max on 52, drops back from 7½f which should suit, and is better drawn in stall 5 than Boston Max in stall 13.
How does the lack of a leader affect the race shape?
The race is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays, as no one obviously wants the lead.
What is the significance of first-time headgear for Whatsin The Stars and Thumama Sands?
First-time headgear is fitted on Whatsin The Stars as he steps up to 7f for the first time, while first-time headgear is tried on Thumama Sands who has been well beaten in all six starts.
Which horses are unproven on the standard surface?
Four Blondes, Simmering Seas, Fontaine Khaled, Alandownunder and Thumama Sands have no runs on standard going.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Dundalk in this field?
Daniel James Murphy has a 15% strike rate at Dundalk from 160 runs with an A/E of 1.01.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies