Julian Pietropaolo
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 80 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.01). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 10% (31 rides). The rider is quiet just now — 0 winners in the last fortnight, below their own baseline.
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 0% (n=48, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet rides in big fields of 14 or more: 4.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.67 and −95.75 to a £1 stake over 190 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Right now the rider is in a quiet spell: 0 from 24 rides in the last 14 days (0%, 7.7pts below the 7.7% baseline). Joseph Patrick O'Brien supplies 16% of the rides and edges the rider's average (10.2% vs 7.7%, A/E 0.78). The rider also reads well off a 0-7-day break (16.7%, n=42) and on Heavy going (14.7%, n=34). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 0% over 39 rides, 7.7pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider on Good going: Fair A/E 0.49 across 83 rides (3.6% strike, −57.25 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. Seasonally, the rider fires Sep–Oct.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.7% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Quiet spellBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2024→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 379 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 379 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 1 September 2024 to 19 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Julian Pietropaolo's strike rate?
- Julian Pietropaolo has won 29 of 379 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.7% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Julian Pietropaolo do best at?
- Curragh by strike rate: 4 wins from 44 rides (9.1%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Julian Pietropaolo ride most for?
- Joseph Patrick O'Brien, with 59 rides since 2022 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (10.2%).
- Is Julian Pietropaolo in form?
- In the last 14 days: 24 rides, 0 winners, a strike rate of 0%. That is below the baseline of 7.7% since 2022.
- What is Julian Pietropaolo's Fair A/E?
- 1.01, from 378 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.