7:00 Dundalk (AW)
This 7f nursery handicap at Dundalk on standard ground brings together a field of nine two-year-olds where the majority remain largely unexposed or modest in form. The KTB Fit ratings point to a race with limited depth overall, headed by Tio Joao on 57, with the remainder tightly bunched between 51 and 36. Given the lack of a natural leader, the contest is set to be tactical rather than a test of stamina, and several runners step up in trip while the surface remains an unknown for most.
How the race shapes up
With no horse obviously wanting the lead, the pace shape points to a steadily-run affair where being handy to the pace should pay dividends. Most of the field are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the race is likely to develop into a tactical sprint for the line in the straight. The key question will be whether any runner can seize an advantageous position early or whether those coming from off the pace can find the necessary rhythm on what could be an even gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Tio Joao KTB Selection57/100
Tio Joao is a fair performer who has shown only modest form in three runs to date, finishing seventh on his only visit to Dundalk. The yard holds a solid 23% strike rate at the venue from 61 runs and the jockey operates at 9% from 155 rides here, though this lightly-raced colt still looks short of top gear. He has one run on standard ground without winning or placing, and the trip looks about right. Largely unexposed, he is taken to improve in what looks a winnable nursery.
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2New Mexico51/100
New Mexico is a modest performer who has finished down the field in all four starts, most recently over 5f. He steps up to 7f for the first time today, which asks a fresh question of him, and he has no experience on standard ground. The trainer has a solid 23% strike rate at Dundalk from 61 runs while the jockey is operating at a 40% strike rate from his five rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to show something new to feature.
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3Someday Somewhere49/100
Someday Somewhere is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning. He has run well enough on this track to suggest the Dundalk surface is no problem and the trainer's solid 21% strike rate here adds some confidence. The jockey's 11% record at the venue is more modest and the small overall sample means the going remains an open question. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he enters the reckoning on his placed efforts.
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4Scarlet Dream47/100
Scarlet Dream is a modest performer who has shown little in four starts to date and was well held on her only previous visit here. The step up to 7f asks a fresh question while the yard's solid record at Dundalk gives some hope she can improve. The jockey also knows his way around this track. She has one run on standard ground without winning or placing and is usually held up, producing her effort late.
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5Jisir43/100
Jisir is a modest performer who has finished last on all three starts to date. Dropping back from 1m to 7f raises a fresh question and first-time headgear is now fitted. Both trainer and jockey have modest records at Dundalk.
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6Mutamarid Lsk43/100
Mutamarid Lsk is a limited performer who has shown little in three starts to date, finishing eighth on each occasion. The step up to 7f is an unknown and the small sample makes the surface hard to gauge. The trainer has a solid 15% strike rate here while the jockey operates at 7%. Usually held up and producing his effort late on limited evidence.
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7Snapequus41/100
Snapequus is a modest performer who has shown very little in three starts to date. He steps up to 7f for the first time having been well held over 6f on his last two outings. The trainer has a solid 15% strike rate at Dundalk from a big sample while the jockey is operating at a 6% strike rate here. Usually held up and producing his effort late.
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8Littlepacer37/100
Littlepacer is a limited performer who has shown very little in three runs on turf and one at this track. He steps up to 7f for the first time today after failing to trouble the leaders over 6f last time. The trainer has a solid 11% strike rate at Dundalk from a big sample while the 7lb claimer is operating at a similar level to expectations from her small number of rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late.
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9Little Diva36/100
Little Diva is a limited performer who has shown little since a modest debut effort and now steps up from 5f to 7f for the first time. The yard holds a 7% strike rate at Dundalk from 1000 runs while the jockey is operating at 5% from 44 rides here. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high data confidence, but the overall profile remains modest.
KTB verdict
Tio Joao is the KTB Selection. A fair performer who remains largely unexposed after three modest runs, he can step forward now in a nursery where the majority of the field have shown even less. The yard's solid record at Dundalk adds to the case, and the trip looks suitable in a race that should be run to suit those positioned handy. Main dangers are Someday Somewhere, who brings consistent placed form at the trip, and New Mexico, who is open to improvement stepping up in distance for a yard in form at the venue.
KTB Selection Tio Joao
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 2 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Tio Joao | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| New Mexico | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Someday Somewhere | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Scarlet Dream | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Jisir | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Mutamarid Lsk | 14/1 | Bet Victor |
| Snapequus | 5/1 | Bet Victor |
| Littlepacer | 5/4 | Bet Victor |
| Little Diva | 22/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 7:00 Dundalk (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Dundalk (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Dundalk (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why does the pace shape favour being handy?
The race lacks a leader so is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
How many runners are stepping up to 7f for the first time?
New Mexico, Scarlet Dream, Mutamarid Lsk, Snapequus and Littlepacer are all stepping up to 7f for the first time; Little Diva steps up from 5f.
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Dundalk?
Tio Joao and New Mexico's trainer has a 23% strike rate at Dundalk from 61 runs.
Which runners have previous experience at Dundalk?
Tio Joao finished seventh on his only visit here, and both Scarlet Dream and Littlepacer have also run once at the track without placing.
Who is wearing first-time headgear?
Jisir is fitted with first-time headgear.
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