Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 13.3%Claiming riders: 12.9%
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
13.3%+2.4
n=30 · A/E 1.28 · £1 −7.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
16.7%+5.8
n=18 · A/E 2.00 · £1 +0.00
Debutants · first career start
50%+39.1
n=2 · A/E 2.12 · £1 +0.38
First-time headgear · true-first definition
25%+14.1
n=4 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −1.62
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−10.9
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
20%
n=5 · A/E 0.51 · £1 −2.62
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
12.9%+2.0
n=31 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −10.62
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Miss Izzie Marshall13.3% vs 10.9% · n=30
With claiming riders up12.9% vs 10.9% · n=31
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Chase45511.1%−20.12
NH Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good27311.1%−10.62
Good to Soft1218.3%−8.00
Soft5120%−0.50
Heavy200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Stratford1317.7%−3.00
Cheltenham1100%−11.00
Aintree700%−7.00
Warwick3133.3%+1.00
Leicester3133.3%+1.50
Fakenham2150%+0.38
Sandown100%−1.00
Taunton11100%+3.00
Cartmel100%−1.00
Ffos Las100%−1.00
Fontwell100%−1.00
Huntingdon100%−1.00
Newbury100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 41516.7%−5.00
Class 21200%−12.00
Class 511218.2%−2.50
Class 65240%+1.38
Class 3300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite5120%0.51−2.62
2nd–3rd fav9333.3%1.40+3.50
4th–6th fav1317.7%1.00−3.00
7th+ in betting1900%0.00−19.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m5f – 3m25520%−0.12
Over 3m1600%−16.00
2m1f – 2m4f400%−4.00
1m5f – 2m100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202219315.8%−8.12
20231218.3%−8.00
20244125%+6.00
2025800%−8.00
2026300%−3.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps300%−3.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners15213.3%−1.00
5-7 runners14321.4%−3.12
17+ runners1000%−10.00
2-4 runners500%−5.00
11-13 runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 22 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 22 horses listed, 19 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Lawney Hill (4) and Gordon Elliott (3); 3 had their first archived run for this yard.
3 have since run for another yard, most often for Lawney Hill (2); 19 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
1002900130······
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2006→
32
Archived wins
£150k
Prize money
2017
Best season · 6 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Harbour Court (GB) — pointtopoint.co.uk Champion Novices' Hunters' Chase (For The John Corbet Cup) Stratford · Jun 2013 · Class 2
£11,992
Quinz (FR) — Bonhams Men's Open Point-to-point Championship Final Hunters' Chase Cheltenham · Apr 2015 · Class 4
£4,679
Bon Accord (GB) — Hiscox Intermediate Hunters' Chase Cheltenham · May 2007 · Class 4
Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,810 runs since 2008 (705 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 203. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.3% from 816.
Brian Boru (GB)25% · 1–4
Progeny have won 11% of 4,123 runs since 2008 (285 horses).
Kapgarde (FR)0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,611 runs since 2008 (723 horses).
Midnight Legend (GB)25% · 1–4
Progeny have won 14.2% of 8,309 runs since 2008 (494 horses).
Progeny have won 10.6% of 3,215 runs since 2008 (283 horses).
Olden Times (GB)0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 9.2% of 736 runs since 2008 (67 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 17.6% from 108. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 13.7% from 117.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 23 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 183 · newest first
The latest 50 of 183 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 March 2006 to 1 May 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Alan Hill's strike rate?
Alan Hill has won 5 of 46 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 10.9% (as at 23 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Alan Hill's Fair A/E?
0.90, from 46 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Alan Hill·SR 10.9%·A/E 0.90
KTB
Cookies on Kickthebookies
We use essential cookies to run the site and remember your betslip. No advertising or tracking cookies, ever. By continuing to use this site, you agree. Cookie policy