Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 40 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.37). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 15% off breaks of two months or more (34 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 203 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 29 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 14.7%James Martin: 12.8% from 78Claiming riders: 12.4%
The read
James Martin rides 38% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (12.8%, A/E 1.15) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well over 1m5f – 2m (19.7%, n=66) and on Good going (15.9%, n=69). The record reads poorly off a 15-30-day break — 5.9% over 68 runners, 5.9pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 2m1f – 2m4f: Fair A/E 0.79 across 58 runners (6.9% strike, −10.75 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Lion Ring (IRE) — 7 wins from 54 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 11.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
14.7%+2.9
n=34 · A/E 1.62 · £1 −6.54
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−11.8
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−11.8
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
14.3%+2.5
n=7 · A/E 5.07 · £1 +22.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−11.8
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
When favourite
30.8%
n=13 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −2.41
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
12.4%+0.6
n=169 · A/E 1.37 · £1 −18.88
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−11.8
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 1m5f – 2m19.7% vs 11.8% · n=66
With a new jockey booking3.9% vs 11.8% · n=51
Off a 15-30-day break5.9% vs 11.8% · n=68
Over 2m1f – 2m4f6.9% vs 11.8% · n=58
On Good going15.9% vs 11.8% · n=69
Off a 8-14-day break16.1% vs 11.8% · n=31
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle1101210.9%−3.89
Flat64710.9%+5.83
NH Flat1516.7%−12.20
Chase14428.6%+5.38
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good691115.9%−15.46
Standard (AW)47714.9%+22.83
Good to Soft40512.5%+29.25
Soft2900%−29.00
Good to Firm1200%−12.00
Heavy6116.7%−0.50
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Chepstow20210%−10.75
Lingfield (AW)1417.1%−2.00
Chelmsford City (AW)13430.8%+24.33
Wolverhampton (AW)12216.7%+8.50
Huntingdon10440%+27.93
Warwick1000%−10.00
Stratford10220%+0.00
Worcester8112.5%−6.09
Uttoxeter8112.5%−1.50
Ffos Las7114.3%+8.00
Newbury6116.7%+3.00
Market Rasen500%−5.00
Ludlow500%−5.00
Wincanton500%−5.00
Kempton (AW)500%−5.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 463711.1%−27.71
Class 557814%+21.50
Class 656712.5%+13.83
Class 318211.1%−3.50
Class 1600%−6.00
Class 2300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite15426.7%0.93−4.41
2nd–3rd fav371129.7%1.73+19.53
4th–6th fav65710.8%1.52+14.00
7th+ in betting8622.3%0.90−34.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m661319.7%+15.04
2m1f – 2m4f5846.9%−10.75
6f – 7f3538.6%−20.17
Under 6f22418.2%+33.00
2m5f – 3m1500%−15.00
1m – 1m1f500%−5.00
1m2f – 1m4f200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202226311.5%−11.34
20234249.5%+1.08
202454916.7%+9.33
20254948.2%−6.95
202632412.5%+3.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1412014.2%+30.57
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners75810.7%−9.67
11-13 runners53611.3%+31.25
5-7 runners39615.4%−7.54
14-16 runners2713.7%−22.80
2-4 runners8337.5%+4.88
17+ runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 19 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 19 horses listed, 8 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Alan King (2) and S G Allen (2); 11 had their first archived run for this yard.
3 have since run for another yard; 16 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
1 from 3
Only 3 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
6125171761104323105
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
49
Archived wins
£408k
Prize money
2024
Best season · 9 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Militarian (GB) — inthepaddock.co.uk Handicap Chase Ascot · Nov 2019 · Class 3
£16,505
Militarian (GB) — Sky Sports Racing Launching January 1st Handicap Chase Fakenham · Dec 2018 · Class 3
£10,007
Militarian (GB) — Fernie Chase (Novices' Limited Handicap) Leicester · Feb 2019 · Class 3
Progeny have won 12.4% of 3,544 runs since 2008 (292 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.8% from 222. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.2% from 290. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.5% from 110. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.8% from 171.
Progeny have won 8.4% of 1,903 runs since 2008 (296 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 1.9% from 104. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.1% from 283.
Progeny have won 11.2% of 5,659 runs since 2008 (565 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.5% from 108.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 526 · newest first
The latest 50 of 526 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 17 April 2005 to 28 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Andrew J Martin's strike rate?
Andrew J Martin has won 24 of 203 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 11.8% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Who rides most for Andrew J Martin?
James Martin, with 78 runners since 2022 — 38% of the total. That pairing has won 10 (12.8%).
Is Andrew J Martin in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Andrew J Martin's Fair A/E?
1.37, from 202 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Andrew J Martin·SR 11.8%·A/E 1.37
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