Rose Dawes
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 90 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.21). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 24% (67 rides).
Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 23.9% (n=67, Fair A/E 1.30), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 1.7% (n=60, Fair A/E 0.29). Claiming rides are the standout value angle: 12.3% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.21 and +2.94 to a £1 stake over 423 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Jack Channon supplies 30% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (11.6%, A/E 1.02) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also reads well off a 0-7-day break (33.3%, n=39) and in Class 6 (17.3%, n=197). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 0% over 33 rides, 12.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Class 4: Fair A/E 0.34 across 88 rides (3.4% strike, −67.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. Seasonally, the rider fires Aug–Oct.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 12.1% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2020→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 510 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 510 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 22 July 2020 to 5 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
KTB’s figures
the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 19 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 1) · to 19 Oct 2026.
Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.
Quick answers
- What is Rose Dawes's strike rate?
- Rose Dawes has won 56 of 463 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.1% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Rose Dawes do best at?
- Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 8 wins from 54 rides (14.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Rose Dawes ride most for?
- Jack Channon, with 138 rides since 2022 — 30% of the total. That pairing has won 16 (11.6%).
- Is Rose Dawes in form?
- Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 8 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Rose Dawes's Fair A/E?
- 1.21, from 461 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.