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Trainer profile

J F Grogan

102 runners in the lifetime window · 10 individual horses
As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Sep 2023 100% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
8–102
Wins / Runs
7.8%
Strike rate
n=102
29 (28%)
Placed
1.16
Fair A/E
n=102 · 0.94 incl. margin
−38.63
£1 level stake
n=102 at SP · −37.9%
£286k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.16).

Deterministic profile computed from 102 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 14 Nov 2026
The read

The yard also reads well on Good going (13.9%, n=36). The record reads poorly off a 15-30-day break — 2.4% over 42 runners, 5.4pts below the baseline. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Dark Angel E.B.F. Sweet Mimosa Stakes at Naas (Jul 2011, £41,600).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−7.8
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−7.8
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.8
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−7.8
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−7.8
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=3 · A/E 1.30 · £1 −0.38
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
13.3%+5.5
n=15 · A/E 1.81 · £1 +4.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
7.3%−0.5
n=41 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −13.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Good going 13.9% vs 7.8% · n=36
Off a 15-30-day break 2.4% vs 7.8% · n=42
With a new jockey booking 5.6% vs 7.8% · n=36
With W J Lee 10% vs 7.8% · n=30
Over 6f – 7f 9.4% vs 7.8% · n=53 · A/E 1.49
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 36 5 13.9% −1.63
Soft 20 1 5% −14.00
Good to Soft 13 0 0% −13.00
Standard (AW) 13 0 0% −13.00
Good to Firm 12 1 8.3% −6.00
Heavy 8 1 12.5% +9.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Curragh 21 1 4.8% −4.00
Naas 21 4 19% +13.50
Dundalk (AW) 13 0 0% −13.00
Cork 11 2 18.2% −5.13
Tipperary 8 0 0% −8.00
Leopardstown 7 0 0% −7.00
Fairyhouse 5 0 0% −5.00
Gowran Park 4 0 0% −4.00
Listowel 3 0 0% −3.00
Navan 3 0 0% −3.00
York 1 1 100% +5.00
Doncaster 1 0 0% −1.00
Down Royal 1 0 0% −1.00
Maisons-Laffitte (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00
Ayr 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 41 3 7.3% −13.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 4 1 25% 1.02 −1.38
2nd–3rd fav 17 4 23.5% 1.51 +2.75
4th–6th fav 23 2 8.7% 1.19 +5.00
7th+ in betting 58 1 1.7% 0.63 −45.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Rapid Reaction (IRE) 29 2 7 16 Oct 20
Katla (IRE) 28 4 13 13 Jun 13
Mount Ruapehu (IRE)then Andrew Slattery 14 1 5 23 Sep 23
Nuclear Option (IRE) 7 0 1 16 Jun 17
Sziget (IRE)then David Henry Bergin 6 1 2 11 Apr 21
Western Seaboard (IRE)then M D O'Callaghan 6 0 0 3 Aug 15
Cartesienne (IRE)from M Halford 4 0 1 14 Aug 20
Red Cavier (IRE) 4 0 0 23 May 14
Dark Danger (IRE)from Kevin Prendergast · then David Peter Nagle 2 0 0 3 Jun 12
Dontnotheclue (IRE) 2 0 0 15 Aug 10
All 10 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 10 horses listed, 2 arrived from another yard in our archive; 8 had their first archived run for this yard.

4 have since run for another yard; 6 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
··00057617180·
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderAndrew Slattery
30% of all rides
9.7% SR · A/E 1.41
RiderRWSR£1
Andrew Slattery 31 3 9.7% −9.38
W J Lee 30 3 10% −16.25
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
8
Archived wins
3
Pattern / graded wins
£287k
Prize money
2018
Best season · 2 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Katla (IRE) — Dark Angel E.B.F. Sweet Mimosa Stakes (Fillies' Listed) Naas · Jul 2011 · Listed
£41,600
Rapid Reaction (IRE) — Joe McGrath Handicap (Premier Handicap) Naas · Sep 2018
£29,500
Katla (IRE) — Mick Ramsey Lifetime In Racing Achievement Waterford Testimonial Stakes (listed) Curragh · Oct 2012 · Listed
£26,000
Notable horses
Katla (IRE) Rapid Reaction (IRE) Mount Ruapehu (IRE) Sziget (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Shamardal (USA) 6.9% · 2–29
Progeny have won 14.7% of 10,414 runs since 2009 (1,008 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11.7% from 1,289. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.3% from 475.
Majestic Missile (IRE) 14.3% · 4–28
Progeny have won 8.4% of 1,897 runs since 2010 (110 horses).
Invincible Spirit (IRE) 7.1% · 1–14
Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,875 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.
Frozen Power (IRE) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 8.4% of 1,887 runs since 2015 (132 horses).
Footstepsinthesand (GB) 16.7% · 1–6
Progeny have won 10.2% of 12,819 runs since 2009 (938 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.9% from 321.
Silver Frost (IRE) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 6.4% of 1,339 runs since 2014 (164 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 105 · newest first

The latest 50 of 105 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 17 June 2005 to 23 September 2023.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
23 Sep 23 Curragh Mount Ruapehu (IRE)J: Cian Horgan Fitzpatrick's Mercedes-benz Joe Mcgrath Handicap5f · Yielding To Soft · 16 ran 16th 66/1
06 Sep 23 Cork Mount Ruapehu (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Follow Us On Instagram Handicap6f · Good · 9 ran 5th 20/1
11 Aug 23 Tipperary Mount Ruapehu (IRE)J: Ben Coen Coast To Curragh Charity Cycle On 26th August Handicap5f · Soft · 10 ran 10th 40/1
05 Jul 23 Tipperary Mount Ruapehu (IRE)J: Ben Coen Irish Stallion Farms EBF Race5f · Good · 6 ran 6th 16/1
16 Jun 23 Cork Mount Ruapehu (IRE)J: Andrew Slattery Sign Up To Our Newsletter Handicap5f · Yielding · 10 ran 2nd 18/1
17 May 23 Cork Mount Ruapehu (IRE)J: Andrew Slattery Follow Us On Social Media Handicap5f · Good · 10 ran 10th 7/1
08 Apr 23 Cork Mount Ruapehu (IRE)J: Andrew Slattery Sp Or Better Guaranteed With Tote Handicap5f · Soft To Heavy · 10 ran 7th 15/2
27 Sep 22 Cork Mount Ruapehu (IRE)J: Andrew Slattery Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden5f · Good · 12 ran 1st 13/8F
15 Sep 22 Naas Mount Ruapehu (IRE)J: Andrew Slattery Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden6f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran 4th 5/2
21 Aug 22 Naas Mount Ruapehu (IRE)J: Andrew Slattery Irish EBF Auction Series Maiden6f · Good · 13 ran 3rd 4/1
06 Aug 22 Curragh Mount Ruapehu (IRE)J: Andrew Slattery John Ormonde Gallop & Arena Construction Irish EBF Maiden6f · Good · 13 ran 3rd 28/1
20 Jul 22 Naas Mount Ruapehu (IRE)J: Andrew Slattery Irish Stallion Farms Ebf Maiden6f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 50/1
24 Jun 22 Curragh Mount Ruapehu (IRE)J: Andrew Slattery Brentford Fc Sponsors The Garden Province Irish Ebf Maiden6f · Good · 16 ran 11th 200/1
10 Jun 22 Fairyhouse Mount Ruapehu (IRE)J: Andrew Slattery Irish EBF Auction Series Maiden6f · Good · 17 ran 16th 20/1
11 Apr 21 Leopardstown Sziget (IRE)J: W J Lee Ballylinch Stud 'Priory Belle' 1,000 Guineas Trial Stakes (Fillies' Group 3)7f · Good · 15 ran 13th 40/1
28 Mar 21 Naas Sziget (IRE)J: Colin Keane Lodge Park Stud Irish EBF Park Express Stakes (Fillies' And Mares' Group 3)8f · Soft · 8 ran 3rd 16/1
16 Oct 20 Dundalk (AW) Rapid Reaction (IRE)J: Andrew Slattery Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Pat Smullen Mercury Stakes (Group 3)5f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 40/1
02 Oct 20 Dundalk (AW) Sziget (IRE)J: W J Lee Irish Stallion Farms EBF Star Appeal Stakes (Listed)7f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 14/1
17 Sep 20 Naas Sziget (IRE)J: Wayne Lordan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden (Plus 10)7f · Good · 12 ran 1st 10/1
13 Sep 20 Curragh Rapid Reaction (IRE)J: Andrew Slattery Derrinstown Stud Flying Five Stakes (Group 1)5f · Good · 14 ran 10th 80/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is J F Grogan's strike rate?
J F Grogan has won 8 of 102 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.8% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is J F Grogan's Fair A/E?
1.16, from 102 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 14 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).