Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.09).
Deterministic profile computed from 109 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 5 Nov 2026
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
9.1%+0.8
n=11 · A/E 1.93 · £1 +2.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
15.4%+7.1
n=13 · A/E 1.19 · £1 +2.50
Debutants · first career start
0%−8.3
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−8.3
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=6 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −1.20
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.7%+0.4
n=23 · A/E 1.64 · £1 +5.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 1m – 1m1f10% vs 8.3% · n=70 · A/E 1.28
With a new jockey booking8.3% vs 8.3% · n=60 · A/E 1.50
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)4337%−20.90
Soft26311.5%+51.00
Good to Soft24312.5%+15.00
Good1100%−11.00
Heavy500%−5.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Chantilly4548.9%−9.90
Deauville (AW)1400%−14.00
Saint-Cloud1100%−11.00
Longchamp (FR)900%−9.00
Amiens (FR)5120%+18.00
Clairefontaine (FR)500%−5.00
Compiegne (FR)4125%+3.50
Dieppe (FR)3133.3%+38.00
Tarbes (FR)3133.3%−0.50
Saint-Malo (FR)2150%+27.00
Fontainebleau (FR)200%−2.00
Vichy (FR)200%−2.00
Moulins (FR)100%−1.00
Craon (FR)100%−1.00
Argentan (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 31417.1%−6.50
Class 2400%−4.00
Class 4300%−3.00
Class 1200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite7228.6%0.94−2.20
2nd–3rd fav1616.3%0.40−11.20
4th–6th fav23313%1.69+20.50
7th+ in betting6334.8%1.63+22.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f70710%+50.60
6f – 7f2827.1%−10.50
1m2f – 1m4f900%−9.00
Under 6f200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20252414.2%−21.70
20268589.4%+50.80
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps38410.5%−2.90
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners4124.9%−18.50
11-13 runners3538.6%−14.90
8-10 runners18316.7%+54.50
5-7 runners1119.1%+12.00
17+ runners400%−4.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 24 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 24 horses listed, 13 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from M Rulec (3) and Joao Pedro Macedo Da Costa Oliveira (2); 11 had their first archived run for this yard.
6 have since run for another yard, most often for M Boutin (2); 18 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 6
Only 6 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
040017001712100200
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 9.6% of 2,090 runs since 2020 (246 horses). Strongest on Good going: 12.7% from 245. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 15% from 200.
Progeny have won 11.4% of 1,819 runs since 2022 (239 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 105. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 16.1% from 267.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 110 · newest first
The latest 50 of 110 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 8 February 2012 to 3 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Leonardo D Racco's strike rate?
Leonardo D Racco has won 9 of 109 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.3% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Leonardo D Racco do best at?
Chantilly by strike rate: 4 wins from 45 runners (8.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is Leonardo D Racco in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Leonardo D Racco's Fair A/E?
1.09, from 109 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Leonardo D Racco·SR 8.3%·A/E 1.09
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