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Trainer profile

M F O'Dowd

56 runners in the lifetime window · 9 individual horses
As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Jun 2025 91% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
2–56
Wins / Runs
3.6%
Strike rate
n=56
5 (9%)
Placed
1.22
Fair A/E
n=56 · 0.95 incl. margin
−20.00
£1 level stake
n=56 at SP · −35.7%
£20,020
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−3.6
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−3.6
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−3.6
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
10%+6.4
n=20 · A/E 3.39 · £1 +16.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−3.6
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With a new jockey booking 5.6% vs 3.6% · n=36
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 31 1 3.2% −10.00
NH Flat 13 1 7.7% +2.00
Chase 7 0 0% −7.00
Flat 5 0 0% −5.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 26 1 3.8% −11.00
Heavy 18 1 5.6% +3.00
Good 6 0 0% −6.00
Good to Firm 3 0 0% −3.00
Good to Soft 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Fairyhouse 8 0 0% −8.00
Clonmel 7 0 0% −7.00
Punchestown 5 0 0% −5.00
Navan 4 1 25% +11.00
Naas 4 0 0% −4.00
Wexford 3 0 0% −3.00
Tramore 3 0 0% −3.00
Roscommon 3 0 0% −3.00
Limerick 3 1 33.3% +18.00
Wexford 2 0 0% −2.00
Thurles 2 0 0% −2.00
Gowran Park 2 0 0% −2.00
Galway 2 0 0% −2.00
Cork 2 0 0% −2.00
Killarney 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
4th–6th fav 10 0 0% 0.00 −10.00
7th+ in betting 46 2 4.3% 1.95 −10.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
63.2% completed · 38 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 7 57.1% 2 0 0 1 0
Hurdle 31 64.5% 0 1 10 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Realtin Lonrach (IRE) 14 0 1 16 Jun 25
Occidental Lady (IRE) 9 1 1 23 Sep 15
Celerity Rules (IRE) 9 1 1 12 Jul 13
Pariah (IRE) 8 0 0 25 Jan 17
His Highness (IRE) 7 0 2 1 Dec 13
Faithful Rosanna (IRE) 5 0 0 19 May 16
Close The Bar (IRE)from Patrick J Flynn 2 0 0 1 Dec 12
Dormers Girl (IRE) 1 0 0 18 May 13
Dame Edith (IRE)from Michael Butler 1 0 0 24 May 08
All 9 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 9 horses listed, 2 arrived from another yard in our archive; 7 had their first archived run for this yard.

None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
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A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Andrew P Thornton 6 0 0% −6.00
J J Slevin 6 0 0% −6.00
Michael O'Sullivan 5 0 0% −5.00
Mark Bolger 3 0 0% −3.00
M P Fogarty 3 0 0% −3.00
Mr M T Slevin 3 1 33.3% +12.00
Derek McCormack 3 0 0% −3.00
Patrick Mangan 2 0 0% −2.00
Roger Loughran 2 0 0% −2.00
Jonathan Moore 2 1 50% +19.00
John Cullen 2 0 0% −2.00
Mr N J Redmond 2 0 0% −2.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2008→
2
Archived wins
£20,020
Prize money
2015
Best season · 1 win
Occidental Lady (IRE) — Limerick Family Fun Day 29th March Handicap Hurdle (80-109) Limerick · Mar 2015
£7,590
Celerity Rules (IRE) — Garlow Cross (pro/am) Flat Race Navan · Sep 2012
£5,520
Notable horses
Occidental Lady (IRE) Celerity Rules (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Ocovango (GB) 0% · 0–14
Progeny have won 9.4% of 3,022 runs since 2019 (308 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 13.8% from 196.
Lahib (USA) 11.1% · 1–9
Progeny have won 7.6% of 1,699 runs since 2008 (176 horses).
Westerner (GB) 11.1% · 1–9
Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,873 runs since 2009 (946 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.
Hurricane Run (IRE) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 10.9% of 3,152 runs since 2010 (273 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 4.8% from 104.
Flemensfirth (USA) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,295 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).
Zagreb (USA) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 7.3% of 1,455 runs since 2008 (150 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 56 · newest first

The latest 50 of 56 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 24 May 2008 to 16 June 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
16 Jun 25 Kilbeggan Realtin Lonrach (IRE)J: Sean Cleary-Farrell Belvedere House & Gardens Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)24.5f · Good · 14 ran PU 18/1
27 Mar 25 Clonmel Realtin Lonrach (IRE)J: Richard Deegan Glenary Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)18.5f · Good · 13 ran PU 28/1
13 Mar 25 Limerick Realtin Lonrach (IRE)J: P J O'Hanlon Lynch Quarries Handicap Hurdle (0-100)22.5f · Yielding · 18 ran UR 28/1
27 Jan 25 Punchestown Realtin Lonrach (IRE)J: Michael O'Sullivan Festival Hospitality Selling Fast Handicap Hurdle (0-100)19.5f · Heavy · 17 ran PU 16/1
13 Jan 25 Punchestown Realtin Lonrach (IRE)J: Michael O'Sullivan Festival 2025 Hospitality Selling Fast Novice Handicap Hurdle19.5f · Soft · 10 ran 5th 25/1
01 Jan 25 Tramore Realtin Lonrach (IRE)J: Michael O'Sullivan Tramore Medical Clinic Handicap Hurdle (0-100)21.5f · Heavy · 15 ran PU 18/1
09 Nov 24 Gowran Park Realtin Lonrach (IRE)J: Michael O'Sullivan Pat Carroll's Pub Kilkenny Mares Handicap Hurdle (80-95) (Div 1)20f · Yielding · 15 ran 11th 10/1
28 Oct 24 Wexford Realtin Lonrach (IRE)J: Richard Condon County Wexford Vintners Federation Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (80-109)16.5f · Soft · 11 ran 5th 16/1
29 May 24 Wexford Realtin Lonrach (IRE)J: J J Slevin Fleadh Cheoil Wexford August 4th - 11th Handicap Hurdle (80-95) (Div 2)17f · Yielding To Soft · 14 ran 3rd 28/1
16 May 24 Clonmel Realtin Lonrach (IRE)J: J J Slevin Download The New Tote App Handicap Hurdle (80-95) (Div 2)19f · Yielding · 13 ran 13th 25/1
31 Mar 24 Fairyhouse Realtin Lonrach (IRE)J: Michael O'Sullivan Ryan's Cleaning Maiden Hurdle16f · Heavy · 20 ran 10th 300/1
10 Mar 24 Naas Realtin Lonrach (IRE)J: Sean O'Keeffe Bar One Racing 'Guaranteed Multiples All Shops' Maiden Hurdle19f · Soft · 21 ran 13th 250/1
13 Feb 24 Thurles Realtin Lonrach (IRE)J: J J Slevin thurles.ie Maiden Hurdle (Div 2)15.5f · Soft To Heavy · 12 ran 8th 150/1
24 Jan 24 Fairyhouse Realtin Lonrach (IRE)J: J J Slevin Easter Festival Early Bird Maiden Hurdle16f · Heavy · 15 ran 6th 150/1
25 Jan 17 Fairyhouse Pariah (IRE)J: Jonathan Burke Online Discounts At fairyhouse.ie Mares Maiden Hurdle20f · Yielding To Soft · 16 ran PU 100/1
27 Dec 16 Limerick Pariah (IRE)J: David Splaine Goggin Buckley Mares Maiden Hurdle18f · Heavy · 15 ran 7th 40/1
19 May 16 Clonmel Faithful Rosanna (IRE)J: Mark Bolger Ancient East Mares Maiden Hurdle19.5f · Good · 18 ran PU 100/1
04 May 16 Tramore Faithful Rosanna (IRE)J: Mark Bolger www.tramore-racecourse.com Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 13 ran 13th 100/1
21 Apr 16 Tipperary Faithful Rosanna (IRE)J: Mark Bolger Follow TipperaryRaces On Twitter Maiden Hurdle24f · Yielding To Soft · 15 ran 14th 80/1
08 Apr 16 Wexford Faithful Rosanna (IRE)J: Mr M T Slevin Freddie Doyle Memorial & Liz Doyle Racing E.B.F. Mares Flat Race16f · Heavy · 14 ran 9th 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is M F O'Dowd's strike rate?
M F O'Dowd has won 2 of 56 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.6% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is M F O'Dowd's Fair A/E?
1.22, from 56 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 12 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).