Mark Bolger
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 140 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.93). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 9% (107 rides).
The record is strongest at Tipperary (14.6%, n=41), Down Royal (10.5%, n=105) and Listowel (11.3%, n=53) — all clear of the rider's 5.3% baseline. It is weakest at Cork (0% over 81 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 9.3% (n=107, Fair A/E 0.71). The market has consistently overbet in Group and Graded company the record: 2.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.45 and −57.50 to a £1 stake over 110 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Mrs John Harrington supplied 23% of the rides and edges the rider's average (8.6% vs 5.3%, A/E 1.00) — the market has that partnership priced right. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the I.n.h. Stallion Owners E.B.F. Novice Handicap Hurdle Series Final at Fairyhouse (Apr 2011, £37,375). The standout partner of the record was Ciankyle (IRE) — 5 wins from 26 rides together.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.3% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 2,146 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 2,146 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 20 May 2005 to 18 June 2021.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Mark Bolger's strike rate?
- Mark Bolger has won 105 of 1,973 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.3% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Mark Bolger do best at?
- Down Royal by strike rate: 11 wins from 105 rides (10.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Mark Bolger ride most for?
- Mrs John Harrington, with 452 rides since 2008 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 39 (8.6%).
- What is Mark Bolger's Fair A/E?
- 0.93, from 1,973 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.