Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.62). With a claiming rider up the record reads 6% (67 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 120 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 6%
The read
The yard also reads well on Soft going (11.8%, n=34) and over 2m5f – 3m (7.4%, n=54). The record reads poorly on Good going — 0% over 47 runners, 4.2pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Colls Corner (IRE) — 5 wins from 52 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.9%+1.7
n=17 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −7.00
Debutants · first career start
10%+5.8
n=10 · A/E 2.08 · £1 −2.50
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.2
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.2
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
0%
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6%+1.8
n=67 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −30.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On Soft going11.8% vs 4.2% · n=34
With a new jockey booking8.7% vs 4.2% · n=46
On Good going0% vs 4.2% · n=47
On Good to Soft going0% vs 4.2% · n=30
Over 2m5f – 3m7.4% vs 4.2% · n=54
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle8833.4%−58.50
Chase2229.1%−3.50
NH Flat600%−6.00
Flat400%−4.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good4700%−47.00
Soft34411.8%−1.00
Good to Soft3000%−30.00
Heavy8112.5%+7.00
Good to Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Tramore1715.9%−7.00
Cork1500%−15.00
Limerick1300%−13.00
Kilbeggan1300%−13.00
Killarney1218.3%−4.50
Wexford1100%−11.00
Ballinrobe8112.5%−3.50
Clonmel700%−7.00
Roscommon600%−6.00
Tipperary500%−5.00
Listowel3133.3%+8.00
Punchestown3133.3%+12.00
Sligo300%−3.00
Downpatrick200%−2.00
Galway (IRE)100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite600%0.00−6.00
2nd–3rd fav2015%0.36−15.50
4th–6th fav33412.1%1.59+10.50
7th+ in betting6100%0.00−61.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m5f – 3m5447.4%−16.00
2m1f – 2m4f4212.4%−32.00
1m5f – 2m1400%−14.00
Over 3m1000%−10.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2022900%−9.00
20232100%−21.00
20242713.7%−22.50
20253625.6%−13.50
20262727.4%−6.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps7222.8%−47.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners5211.9%−42.00
11-13 runners3139.7%−0.50
17+ runners1800%−18.00
8-10 runners1616.3%−8.50
5-7 runners300%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 10 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 10 horses listed, none arrived from another yard in our archive — all 10 had their first archived run here.
1 has since run for another yard; 9 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
03301157050000
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,807 runs since 2008 (704 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 203. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.3% from 816.
Sholokhov (IRE)4.5% · 1–22
Progeny have won 12.5% of 4,258 runs since 2008 (419 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 8.9% from 157.
Progeny have won 7.4% of 1,584 runs since 2008 (131 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 3.5% from 172. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 3.3% from 122.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 225 · newest first
The latest 50 of 225 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2007 to 18 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Michael Barry's strike rate?
Michael Barry has won 5 of 120 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 4.2% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Michael Barry in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Michael Barry's Fair A/E?
0.62, from 120 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Michael Barry·SR 4.2%·A/E 0.62
KTB
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