What is Ian McCarthy's strike rate?

Ian McCarthy has won 77 of 2,050 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 3.8% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Ian McCarthy do best at?

Tramore by strike rate: 5 wins from 74 rides (6.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Ian McCarthy ride most for?

D T Hughes, with 254 rides since 2008 — 12% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (5.5%).

What is Ian McCarthy's Fair A/E?

0.81, from 2,050 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Ian McCarthy

2,050 rides in the lifetime window · 959 individual horses

As at 28 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Jul 2021 99% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

77–2,050

Wins / Runs

3.8%

Strike rate

n=2,050

284 (14%)

Placed

0.81

Fair A/E

n=2,050 · 0.62 incl. margin

−1,095.77

£1 level stake

n=2,050 at SP · −53.5%

£1.25m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 150 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.81). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 7% (84 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,050 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 28 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Jun–Jul 23.9% when favourite D T Hughes: 5.5% from 254 LTO winners: 7.1% Claiming: 4% Rode the favourite in 2% of races

The read

It is weakest at Limerick (0% over 113 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 7.1% (n=84, Fair A/E 0.71). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 1.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.51 and −320.00 to a £1 stake over 461 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. D T Hughes supplied 12% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (5.5%, A/E 0.90). The rider also read well off a 0-7-day break (11%, n=109). The record read poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0.4% over 237 rides, 3.4pts below the baseline. 5 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Freshways Handicap Hurdle at Galway (Aug 2009, £32,550). Seasonally, the rider fired Jun–Jul.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.8% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

3.1%−0.7

n=948 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −450.00

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

7.1%+3.3

n=84 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −46.17

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

1.7%−2.1

n=461 · A/E 0.51 · £1 −320.00

When favourite

23.9%

n=46 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −5.60

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

4%+0.2

n=1,300 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −659.42

Big fields · 14+ runners

3.4%−0.4

n=1,360 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −722.60

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

4.5%+0.7

n=88 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −21.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 0-7-day break 11% vs 3.8% · n=109

With Adrian Sexton 10% vs 3.8% · n=50

With Oliver McKiernan 9.7% vs 3.8% · n=31

With T M Walsh 9.7% vs 3.8% · n=31

Off a break of 180+ days 0.4% vs 3.8% · n=237

At Limerick 0% vs 3.8% · n=113

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 1,639 59 3.6% −888.42

Chase 384 16 4.2% −207.35

Flat 17 1 5.9% −5.00

NH Flat 10 1 10% +5.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 682 29 4.3% −250.10

Good 535 15 2.8% −355.25

Heavy 494 21 4.3% −269.17

Good to Soft 156 6 3.8% −115.25

Good to Firm 152 4 2.6% −94.00

Firm 19 1 5.3% −12.00

Standard (AW) 12 1 8.3% +0.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Punchestown 165 6 3.6% −76.00

Fairyhouse 157 3 1.9% −118.25

Navan 136 6 4.4% −33.75

Kilbeggan 117 6 5.1% −62.67

Thurles 115 4 3.5% −92.25

Limerick 113 0 0% −113.00

Cork 110 4 3.6% −51.00

Clonmel 110 7 6.4% −53.35

Down Royal 100 4 4% −42.00

Ballinrobe 96 4 4.2% −73.00

Downpatrick 78 1 1.3% −67.00

Naas 77 3 3.9% −37.00

Gowran Park 75 4 5.3% −15.00

Tramore 74 5 6.8% −7.50

Roscommon 74 4 5.4% −9.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 89 4 4.5% −22.00

Class 3 4 0 0% −4.00

Class 4 3 0 0% −3.00

Class 5 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 51 11 21.6% 1.01 −10.60

2nd–3rd fav 167 21 12.6% 0.97 −35.17

4th–6th fav 423 23 5.4% 0.87 −166.00

7th+ in betting 1,409 22 1.6% 0.61 −884.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

88.9% completed · 2,023 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 384 81.3% 22 8 40 2 0

Hurdle 1,639 90.7% 30 11 92 11 8

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Jennies Jewel (IRE) 30 4 16 28 Apr 16

L'attesa (IRE) 20 2 3 28 Sep 17

Carlowsantana (IRE) 20 1 6 1 Dec 16

Maca Rince (IRE) 19 0 5 25 May 12

Fergiethelegend (IRE) 18 1 5 28 Apr 18

Returntovendor (IRE) 17 3 8 28 Oct 18

Prince Rudi (IRE) 15 3 8 8 Jun 15

Realdealholyfield (IRE) 14 0 2 19 Jun 15

Chapter Eleven (IRE) 14 1 1 11 Aug 12

Laura's Light (IRE) 14 3 5 3 Mar 10

Dunroe Boy (IRE) 13 2 5 1 May 14

Second Glance (IRE) 13 1 2 7 Nov 13

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 959 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

535335545224

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardD T Hughes

12% of all rides
5.5% SR · A/E 0.90

TrainerRWSR£1

D T Hughes 254 14 5.5% −131.67

John G Carr 135 6 4.4% −79.50

Jarlath P Fahey 132 8 6.1% −57.50

S T Nolan 74 5 6.8% +12.00

Adrian Sexton 50 5 10% +8.50

Mrs Hannah Lee 38 1 2.6% −29.00

Miss Maura McGuinness 32 1 3.1% −6.00

Oliver McKiernan 31 3 9.7% −13.00

Conor O'Dwyer 31 0 0% −31.00

T M Walsh 31 3 9.7% +41.65

Miss Mary Louise Hallahan 30 0 0% −30.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.31m

Prize money

2008

Best season · 14 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Island Myth (IRE) — Freshways Handicap Hurdle Galway · Aug 2009

£32,550

Jennies Jewel (IRE) — Tara Handicap Hurdle (grade B) Navan · Dec 2013 · Grade B

£32,500

Prince Rudi (IRE) — Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (grade C) Galway · Aug 2014 · Grade C

£29,250

Notable horses

Jennies Jewel (IRE) Returntovendor (IRE) Prince Rudi (IRE) Laura's Light (IRE) Old Si (IRE) Luckyinmilan (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Old Vic (GB) 4.8% · 3–63

Progeny have won 11.7% of 6,916 runs since 2008 (630 horses).

Presenting (GB) 3.6% · 2–55

Progeny have won 11% of 20,050 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Definite Article (GB) 5.8% · 3–52

Progeny have won 10.5% of 5,617 runs since 2008 (527 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 5.1% from 138. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 4.3% from 211.

Flemensfirth (USA) 7.8% · 4–51

Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,282 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses).

Oscar (IRE) 4.1% · 2–49

Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.

Beneficial (GB) 8.5% · 4–47

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,044 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 28 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,165 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,165 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 10 December 2005 to 29 July 2021.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

29 Jul 21 Galway Hanoi Jane (IRE)T: T M Walsh Guinness Novice Hurdle16f · Good · 12 ran 10th 80/1

09 Jul 21 Cork Silver Barrel (IRE)T: V T O'Brien Follow Us On Twitter Maiden Hurdle24f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 16th 300/1

09 Jul 21 Cork Colfer Me (IRE)T: Sean Byrne Mallow Handicap Hurdle (80-109)16f · Good To Yielding · 17 ran 14th 50/1

09 Jul 21 Cork Carroll's Pride (IRE)T: Noel Brett CorkRacecourse.ie Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 11th 125/1

09 Jul 21 Cork I Sea The Moon (IRE)T: Barry J Fitzgerald Fermoy Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 11th 200/1

16 Jun 21 Navan Supreme Joy (IRE)T: Michael G Kennedy Kilberry Maiden Hurdle22f · Good · 18 ran 12th 11/1

06 Jun 21 Kilbeggan (IRE) Keenaghan Lass (IRE)T: T F Shaw Follow Kilbeggan On Twitter Handicap Hurdle24.5f · Good · 16 ran PU 40/1

05 Jun 21 Tramore Yulong Voice (GB)T: Shane Nolan Tramore Farmers Market Handicap Hurdle (80-109)21.5f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 4th 10/1

25 May 21 Tipperary One Cool Choice (IRE)T: Jarlath P Fahey Follow TipperaryRaces On Twitter Maiden Hurdle (Div 1)16f · Heavy · 16 ran PU 25/1

13 May 21 Clonmel Yulong Voice (GB)T: Shane Nolan Team Powerstown Handicap Hurdle (80-102)16.5f · Good · 13 ran 9th 10/1

04 May 21 Ballinrobe Pairc Na Ngael (IRE)T: R P Burns Donnelly's Of Barna Beginners Chase17f · Soft · 14 ran 10th 50/1

04 May 21 Ballinrobe Simply Shabra (IRE)T: Anthony McCann Join tote.ie Maiden Hurdle21.5f · Soft · 11 ran 3rd 50/1

04 May 21 Ballinrobe Pythion (FR)T: Michael Winters Ballinrobe Racecourse Centenary Year Maiden Hurdle17f · Soft · 12 ran 7th 16/1

19 Apr 21 Tramore Chapter Two (IRE)T: T F Shaw West Waterford Handicap Chase (0-95)22f · Good · 12 ran 7th 11/1

19 Apr 21 Tramore Yulong Voice (GB)T: Shane Nolan Copper Coast Handicap Hurdle (80-102)16f · Yielding · 13 ran 4th 14/1

15 Apr 21 Limerick Keenaghan Lass (IRE)T: T F Shaw Newcastlewest Handicap Hurdle (80-95) (Div 2)21f · Yielding · 13 ran PU 40/1

09 Apr 21 Wexford Chapter Two (IRE)T: T F Shaw Traynor's Of Wexford For Paint Handicap Chase (0-102)25.5f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 5th 28/1

22 Mar 21 Navan Yulong Voice (GB)T: Shane Nolan Nobber Handicap Hurdle (80-102)16f · Yielding · 17 ran 9th 25/1

12 Mar 21 Gowran Park Terr Byrne (IRE)T: James Gerard Kelly Goresbridge Maiden Hurdle (Div 2)16f · Heavy · 16 ran PU 200/1

22 Feb 21 Fairyhouse Red Sole Diva (IRE)T: W McCreery Fairyhouse Bobbyjo Chase Day 27th February Mares Maiden Hurdle (Div 2)16f · Heavy · 14 ran 9th 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Ian McCarthy's strike rate?: Ian McCarthy has won 77 of 2,050 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 3.8% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Ian McCarthy do best at?: Tramore by strike rate: 5 wins from 74 rides (6.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Ian McCarthy ride most for?: D T Hughes, with 254 rides since 2008 — 12% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (5.5%).
What is Ian McCarthy's Fair A/E?: 0.81, from 2,050 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.