What is Noel Garbutt's strike rate?

Noel Garbutt has won 57 of 1,300 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 4.4% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Noel Garbutt do best at?

Yarmouth by strike rate: 7 wins from 73 rides (9.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Noel Garbutt ride most for?

Derek Shaw, with 112 rides since 2008 — 9% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (6.3%).

What is Noel Garbutt's Fair A/E?

0.85, from 1,293 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Noel Garbutt

1,300 rides in the lifetime window · 744 individual horses

As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Jul 2020 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2009→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

57–1,300

Wins / Runs

4.4%

Strike rate

n=1,300

190 (15%)

Placed

0.85

Fair A/E

n=1,293 · 0.73 incl. margin

−636.53

£1 level stake

n=1,300 at SP · −49.0%

£444k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 110 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.85). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 13% (83 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,300 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Derek Shaw: 6.3% from 112 LTO winners: 13.3%

The read

The record is strongest at Yarmouth (9.6%, n=73), clear of the rider's 4.4% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 13.3% (n=83, Fair A/E 1.11). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 3% strike, Fair A/E 0.69 and −453.05 to a £1 stake over 744 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Derek Shaw supplied 9% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (6.3%, A/E 1.14) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well off a 0-7-day break (9.1%, n=132).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.4% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

3%−1.4

n=744 · A/E 0.69 · £1 −453.05

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

13.3%+8.9

n=83 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −20.75

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

3.6%−0.8

n=168 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −101.50

When favourite

31%

n=29 · A/E 1.30 · £1 +7.39

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

4.4%+0.0

n=1,208 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −570.53

Big fields · 14+ runners

2.5%−1.9

n=161 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −109.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 13.3% vs 4.4% · n=83

With David Evans 10.2% vs 4.4% · n=88

Off a 0-7-day break 9.1% vs 4.4% · n=132

At Yarmouth 9.6% vs 4.4% · n=73

With C&D winners 8.2% vs 4.4% · n=146

With new recruits 0% vs 4.4% · n=52

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 488 20 4.1% −260.11

Good to Firm 304 12 3.9% −182.17

Good 197 10 5.1% −44.00

Soft 128 3 2.3% −92.00

Good to Soft 127 9 7.1% −40.75

Firm 40 2 5% −9.50

Heavy 16 1 6.3% −8.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 125 5 4% −80.05

Lingfield (AW) 96 6 6.3% +5.94

Southwell (AW) 87 2 2.3% −74.00

Kempton (AW) 82 2 2.4% −64.00

Chelmsford (AW) 76 4 5.3% −41.00

Yarmouth 73 7 9.6% +24.50

Bath 61 3 4.9% −22.50

Leicester 57 1 1.8% −38.00

Chepstow 55 4 7.3% −24.50

Brighton 52 3 5.8% −32.00

Nottingham 41 3 7.3% +15.33

Newmarket 37 1 2.7% −16.00

Newmarket 36 1 2.8% −28.50

Salisbury 29 3 10.3% −4.25

Redcar 27 0 0% −27.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 615 33 5.4% −252.78

Class 5 401 17 4.2% −187.25

Class 4 137 2 1.5% −124.00

Class 2 77 2 2.6% −49.50

Class 3 55 3 5.5% −8.00

Class 7 14 0 0% −14.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 39 11 28.2% 1.29 +5.89

2nd–3rd fav 92 14 15.2% 1.01 −22.42

4th–6th fav 349 17 4.9% 0.74 −178.00

7th+ in betting 820 15 1.8% 0.70 −442.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Red Shanghai (IRE) 14 0 0 22 Feb 18

Euroquip Boy (IRE) 14 2 5 14 Jul 16

Dynamo Walt (IRE) 12 3 5 8 Feb 17

Celerity (IRE) 11 0 1 18 Jul 20

Gilmer (IRE) 11 4 5 9 Aug 16

Zarosa (IRE) 11 2 3 3 Nov 15

Welliesinthewater (IRE) 10 2 3 1 Jun 18

Le Manege Enchante (IRE) 9 1 3 17 Aug 19

Deep Blue Diamond (GB) 9 1 4 21 Jun 16

Eastern Dragon (IRE) 9 2 4 30 Nov 15

Eilean Mor (GB) 9 0 4 22 Jul 14

Ejabah (IRE) 8 0 0 27 Apr 19

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 744 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

0410555563342

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardDerek Shaw

9% of all rides
6.3% SR · A/E 1.14

TrainerRWSR£1

Derek Shaw 112 7 6.3% +5.00

David Evans 88 9 10.2% −20.80

Hugo Palmer 79 4 5.1% −21.56

Rae Guest 52 4 7.7% −28.00

Charles Smith 49 0 0% −49.00

Denis Quinn 39 1 2.6% −33.00

Gary Moore 35 2 5.7% −23.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2009→

Archived wins

£444k

Prize money

2016

Best season · 18 wins

See And Be Seen (GB) — Betfred Supporting The IJF Cesarewitch Trial Stakes (Handicap) Newmarket · Sep 2014 · Class 2

£31,125

Verse Of Love (GB) — Chester Standard Handicap Chester · Sep 2012 · Class 2

£28,013

Welliesinthewater (IRE) — Blue Line Taxis Barnsley Supporting Wpcc Handicap Doncaster · Jun 2016 · Class 3

£12,291

Notable horses

Gilmer (IRE) Dynamo Walt (IRE) Euroquip Boy (IRE) Zarosa (IRE) Welliesinthewater (IRE) Eastern Dragon (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Exceed and Excel (AUS) 15.4% · 4–26

Progeny have won 11.9% of 16,030 runs since 2008 (1,161 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.

Iffraaj (GB) 0% · 0–24

Progeny have won 10.5% of 13,971 runs since 2008 (1,091 horses).

Sir Percy (GB) 8.3% · 2–24

Progeny have won 11.1% of 7,150 runs since 2008 (473 horses).

Zebedee (GB) 4.3% · 1–23

Progeny have won 9% of 7,139 runs since 2008 (435 horses).

Bertolini (USA) 0% · 0–21

Progeny have won 8% of 7,851 runs since 2008 (518 horses).

Compton Place (GB) 14.3% · 3–21

Progeny have won 8.5% of 8,347 runs since 2008 (515 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 11.5% from 165.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,300 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,300 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 21 April 2009 to 18 July 2020.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

18 Jul 20 Bath Mrs Tiffen (GB)T: Lisa Williamson visitbath.co.uk HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Firm · 9 ran 8th 150/1

18 Jul 20 Bath Celerity (IRE)T: Lisa Williamson visitbath.co.uk Classified StakesClass 6 · 5.5f · Firm · 13 ran 12th 25/1

07 Jul 20 Leicester Celerity (IRE)T: Lisa Williamson Welcomm Communications HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 3rd 50/1

03 Jul 20 Haydock Celerity (IRE)T: Lisa Williamson bet365 HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 6 ran 6th 150/1

29 Jun 20 Yarmouth Intense Style (IRE)T: Phil McEntee attheraces.com HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 9th 18/1

23 Jun 20 Chepstow Celerity (IRE)T: Lisa Williamson Chepstow Contract Rentals HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Good · 8 ran 6th 50/1

21 Jun 20 Redcar Celerity (IRE)T: Lisa Williamson Watch Racing TV HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Good · 11 ran 11th 100/1

15 Jun 20 Goodwood Purbeck Hills (IRE)T: John Gallagher Coral Beaten By A Length Free Bet HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 2nd 14/1

12 Jun 20 Kempton (AW) Celerity (IRE)T: Lisa Williamson Unibet Thanks The Frontline Workers HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Standard To Slow · 8 ran 8th 200/1

11 Jun 20 Lingfield (AW) No No Cardinal (IRE)T: Mark Gillard Read Andrew Balding On Betway Insider HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 12th 150/1

07 Jun 20 Lingfield (AW) Intense Style (IRE)T: Phil McEntee Betway Heed Your Hunch HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 9th 33/1

03 Oct 19 Chelmsford City (AW) Atwaar (GB)T: Charles Smith Bet Totescoop6 At Totesport.com HandicapClass 7 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 5th 50/1

02 Oct 19 Kempton (AW) Sinndarella (IRE)T: Sarah Hollinshead Bet At racingtv.com HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Standard To Slow · 14 ran 5th 33/1

28 Sep 19 Newmarket Music Seeker (IRE)T: Declan Carroll bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap (Heritage Handicap)Class 2 · 9f · Good · 30 ran 27th 100/1

26 Sep 19 Southwell (AW) Atwaar (GB)T: Charles Smith Watch Sky Sports Racing In HD Classified StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 13 ran 8th 50/1

25 Sep 19 Redcar Dubai Elegance (GB)T: Derek Shaw Watch Race Replays At racingtv.com Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Good · 13 ran 8th 14/1

25 Sep 19 Redcar Speed Dating (FR)T: Derek Shaw Best Flat Races Live On Racing TV NurseryClass 6 · 6f · Good · 12 ran 7th 28/1

21 Sep 19 Wolverhampton (AW) Is She The One (GB)T: Denis Quinn Compare Bookmaker Sites At bonuscodebets.co.uk Selling StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 50/1

19 Sep 19 Southwell (AW) Misty Breese (IRE)T: Sarah Hollinshead 8th November 30th Anniversary Dinner HandicapClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 50/1

18 Sep 19 Yarmouth Dubai Elegance (GB)T: Derek Shaw Youngs London Original Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 4th 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Noel Garbutt's strike rate?: Noel Garbutt has won 57 of 1,300 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 4.4% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Noel Garbutt do best at?: Yarmouth by strike rate: 7 wins from 73 rides (9.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Noel Garbutt ride most for?: Derek Shaw, with 112 rides since 2008 — 9% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (6.3%).
What is Noel Garbutt's Fair A/E?: 0.85, from 1,293 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.