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Trainer profile

Paul Fitzsimons

247 runners in the lifetime window · 57 individual horses
As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Nov 2015 90% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2011→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
15–247
Wins / Runs
6.1%
Strike rate
n=247
36 (15%)
Placed
1.12
Fair A/E
n=244 · 0.96 incl. margin
−59.02
£1 level stake
n=247 at SP · −23.9%
£63,170
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
3.8%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 50 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 6% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.12).

Deterministic profile computed from 247 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026
The read

The record is strongest at Kempton (AW) (10%, n=30), clear of the yard's 6.1% baseline. It is weakest at Wolverhampton (AW) (2.6% over 38 runners) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. The yard also read well over 1m – 1m1f (17.9%, n=39). The record read poorly in Class 4 — 2.3% over 44 runners, 3.8pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 6f – 7f: Fair A/E 0.70 across 110 runners (3.6% strike, −63.77 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.4%−0.7
n=37 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −14.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
3.6%−2.5
n=28 · A/E 0.69 · £1 −11.00
Debutants · first career start
3.4%−2.7
n=29 · A/E 1.57 · £1 +5.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−6.1
n=22 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −22.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.1
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
When favourite
50%
n=2 · A/E 1.46 · £1 −0.27
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.3%−0.8
n=38 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −27.77
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−6.1
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 1m – 1m1f 17.9% vs 6.1% · n=39
With C&D winners 15.6% vs 6.1% · n=32
In Class 4 2.3% vs 6.1% · n=44
At Kempton (AW) 10% vs 6.1% · n=30
At Wolverhampton (AW) 2.6% vs 6.1% · n=38
Over 6f – 7f 3.6% vs 6.1% · n=110
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 222 15 6.8% −34.02
Hurdle 20 0 0% −20.00
Chase 4 0 0% −4.00
NH Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 112 8 7.1% +0.25
Good 42 2 4.8% −23.50
Good to Firm 35 3 8.6% −13.50
Soft 27 0 0% −27.00
Good to Soft 26 2 7.7% +9.73
Heavy 3 0 0% −3.00
Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Wolverhampton (AW) 38 1 2.6% −34.75
Lingfield (AW) 31 2 6.5% +9.00
Kempton (AW) 30 3 10% +27.00
Brighton 14 2 14.3% −3.50
Southwell (AW) 11 2 18.2% +1.00
Windsor 11 1 9.1% −9.27
Newbury 10 1 10% +0.00
Bath 8 1 12.5% +0.50
Warwick 8 0 0% −8.00
Leicester 7 0 0% −7.00
Salisbury 7 0 0% −7.00
Uttoxeter 7 0 0% −7.00
Lingfield 6 0 0% −6.00
Chepstow 6 0 0% −6.00
Newmarket 5 0 0% −5.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 99 8 8.1% −18.02
Class 5 89 6 6.7% +7.00
Class 4 44 1 2.3% −33.00
Class 7 7 0 0% −7.00
Class 3 4 0 0% −4.00
Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 2 1 50% 1.46 −0.27
2nd–3rd fav 30 7 23.3% 1.59 +7.75
4th–6th fav 78 3 3.8% 0.62 −48.50
7th+ in betting 137 4 2.9% 1.14 −18.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Clapperboard (GB) 23 3 7 16 Dec 14
Compton Bird (GB)from Hans Adielsson 21 4 7 20 Nov 15
Beauchamp Melba (GB) 12 0 0 5 Apr 15
While You Wait (IRE)from Gary Moore · then Sue Gardner 9 0 2 14 Nov 15
Chandigarh (IRE) 9 2 2 21 Jun 12
Triskaidekaphobia (GB)from Miss J R Tooth · then Wilf Storey 8 1 1 4 Jul 11
Beauchamp Ace (GB) 7 0 0 8 Apr 15
Banreenahreenkah (IRE)from Jennie Candlish 7 0 1 6 Jan 15
Quasi Congaree (GER)from Ian Wood 7 0 0 29 May 13
Compton Sky (USA)then Jo Hughes 6 0 0 26 Oct 15
Fu Fic Fas (GB) 6 0 1 21 Jun 12
Habsburg (GB) 6 0 0 14 Oct 11
All 57 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 57 horses listed, 28 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Ian Wood (7) and Miss J R Tooth (6); 29 had their first archived run for this yard.

17 have since run for another yard, most often for Jonathan Portman (3) and Alastair Lidderdale (2); 40 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
072105710450115
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderFrankie McDonald
13% of all rides
6.3% SR · A/E 1.86
RiderRWSR£1
Frankie McDonald 32 2 6.3% +36.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2011→
15
Archived wins
£63,170
Prize money
2014
Best season · 7 wins
Compton Bird (GB) — Ashtead Handicap Epsom Downs · Jul 2014 · Class 4
£5,822
Compton Bird (GB) — Al Basti Equiworld Handicap Newbury · May 2015 · Class 5
£4,528
My Bethany (USA) — Learn English At Isehove.com Ebf Stallions Maiden Fillies' Stakes Kempton (AW) · Nov 2015 · Class 5
£4,205
Notable horses
Compton Bird (GB) Clapperboard (GB) Chandigarh (IRE) Young Ranger (GB) Triskaidekaphobia (GB) Bunce (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Royal Applause (GB) 11.1% · 3–27
Progeny have won 8.6% of 12,434 runs since 2008 (774 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.4% from 323.
Compton Admiral (GB) 0% · 0–25
Progeny have won 7.7% of 418 runs since 2008 (34 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.2% from 106. Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 12.6% from 103.
Motivator (GB) 19% · 4–21
Progeny have won 12.1% of 5,572 runs since 2008 (510 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 15.9% from 1,079. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.8% from 1,277. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 15.1% from 589. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.7% from 572.
Bertolini (USA) 8.3% · 1–12
Progeny have won 8% of 7,851 runs since 2008 (518 horses).
Moss Vale (IRE) 22.2% · 2–9
Progeny have won 8.3% of 2,012 runs since 2008 (145 horses).
Whipper (USA) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 9.8% of 4,594 runs since 2008 (395 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.6% from 513. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.7% from 1,126.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 247 · newest first

The latest 50 of 247 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 28 January 2011 to 20 November 2015.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
20 Nov 15 Wolverhampton (AW) Compton Bird (GB)J: Fergus Sweeney Coral HandicapClass 4 · 9.5f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 10/1
20 Nov 15 Wolverhampton (AW) So The Story Goes (GB)J: Chris Kelly 32Red.com Maiden Auction Stakes (Div 2)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 100/1
14 Nov 15 Uttoxeter While You Wait (IRE)J: Gavin Sheehan Banks's Sunbeam Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Soft · 11 ran 7th 5/1
09 Nov 15 Kempton (AW) Compton Bird (GB)J: Joe Fanning Betdaq.com 50 In Free Bets HandicapClass 3 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 20/1
09 Nov 15 Kempton (AW) My Bethany (USA)J: Fergus Sweeney Learn English At Isehove.com Ebf Stallions Maiden Fillies' StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 33/1
04 Nov 15 Warwick While You Wait (IRE)J: Gavin Sheehan 32red Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 4th 20/1
30 Oct 15 Wolverhampton (AW) Beauchamp Monark (GB)J: David Nolan 32red Casino Median Auction Maiden StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 25/1
30 Oct 15 Newmarket Compton Bird (GB)J: Fergus Sweeney Racing FX HandicapClass 4 · 10f · Soft · 12 ran 3rd 25/1
26 Oct 15 Leicester So The Story Goes (GB)J: Chris Kelly Cossington Median Auction Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10)Class 5 · 6f · Soft · 12 ran 11th 200/1
26 Oct 15 Leicester Compton Sky (USA)J: Richard Kingscote Haymarket NurseryClass 6 · 7f · Soft · 17 ran 16th 28/1
12 Oct 15 Salisbury Beauchamp Monark (GB)J: Liam Keniry Bathwick Car & Van Hire Maiden Auction Stakes (Div 2)Class 5 · 7f · Soft · 9 ran 6th 8/1
09 Oct 15 Wolverhampton (AW) Compton Sky (USA)J: Pat Cosgrave Hotel & Racing Packages Available NurseryClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 7 ran 6th 8/1
08 Oct 15 Worcester While You Wait (IRE)J: James Davies 7bets4free.com Says No2 Wins Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 8/1
24 Sep 15 Newmarket Compton Bird (GB)J: Fergus Sweeney Newmarket Challenge Whip (Handicap)Class 6 · 10f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 2nd 9/2
23 Sep 15 Kempton (AW) Compton Sky (USA)J: Martin Lane Richard Casey 80th Birthday NurseryClass 6 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 11 ran 8th 16/1
22 Sep 15 Kempton (AW) Beauchamp Dame (GB)J: Harry Bentley Learn English At isehove.com Claiming StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 6 ran 6th 50/1
20 Sep 15 Uttoxeter While You Wait (IRE)J: James Davies Sentinel Cashback Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 33/1
05 Sep 15 Kempton (AW) Compton Bird (GB)J: Pat Cosgrave totepoolliveinfo.com Handicap (Jockey Club Grassroots Flat Middle Distance Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 11f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 4th 16/1
22 Aug 15 Chelmsford City (AW) Compton Sky (USA)J: Liam Jones toteexacta Maiden Stakes (Plus 10)Class 4 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 10/1
15 Aug 15 Newbury While You Wait (IRE)J: Page Fuller Betfred Ladies Derby Handicap (Lady Amateur Riders)Class 4 · 12f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 9th 33/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Fitzsimons's strike rate?
Paul Fitzsimons has won 15 of 247 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.1% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Fitzsimons do best at?
Kempton (AW) by strike rate: 3 wins from 30 runners (10%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Paul Fitzsimons's Fair A/E?
1.12, from 244 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 15 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).