R Fradet
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.73).
It is weakest at Chantilly (FR) (0% over 32 runners) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 3% (n=66, Fair A/E 0.39). The yard also reads well off a 31-60-day break (11.8%, n=34). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 2.6% over 39 runners, 3.8pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Standard (AW) going: Fair A/E 0.41 across 54 runners (3.7% strike, −43.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Prix la Camargo at Saint-Cloud (FR) (Mar 2026, £21,870).
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.4% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses trained
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleWhen the yard fires
strike by month, lifetimeJockey bookings
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2023→Sires in the string
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 187 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 187 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 28 March 2023 to 11 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is R Fradet's strike rate?
- R Fradet has won 12 of 187 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.4% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does R Fradet do best at?
- Chantilly (FR) by strike rate: 0 wins from 32 runners (0%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Is R Fradet in form?
- Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 10 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is R Fradet's Fair A/E?
- 0.73, from 185 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.