3:54 Redcar
This Class 5 handicap division at Redcar over 1m2f1y on good ground brings together nine modest performers, several of them lightly raced three-year-olds mixing with more exposed handicappers. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched, with Golden Caviar heading the list on 55, followed by Titian on 50, Al Fujairah on 49 and Sutton Hoo on 45. Overall the numbers point to a race where experience at the trip, course form and the ability to handle a strong pace will be key.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the field and the pace shape assessed as strong with high confidence, the early fractions are likely to be honest. Al Fujairah and Sutton Hoo are both noted as tending to make the running or race prominently, which should ensure a proper test. That strong pace could collapse late and, in turn, hand the advantage to hold-up performers such as Golden Caviar, Titian, Cosmic Man, Sweet Kiss, Lady Hornblower, Hey Havana and Idyllic. The key question is whether the prominent pair can dictate matters or whether the race will fall apart in the final furlong, suiting those delivered from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Golden Caviar KTB Selection55/100
Golden Caviar is a modest performer who has shown steady rather than sparkling form in three runs, finishing fifth on debut and then two placed efforts at this trip. Lightly raced with only three career starts so far, he drops in class here which could help unlock further progress. The Ed Dunlop yard posts a solid 17% strike rate at Redcar while Hector Crouch has an excellent 31% record here from limited rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well suited by the anticipated strong pace that could collapse. The going remains an unknown after two runs on good without a win or place and he has no course form on record. Overall he is taken to capitalise on his light profile and the race shape.
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2Titian50/100
Titian is a modest performer who has been placed on all three starts here without winning. He steps up in trip today having won four times at this distance in the past, though his recent form is ordinary and he has been beaten a long way on his last two runs. Trainer and jockey both have below-average strike rates at the track, with Julie Camacho on 8% from 312 runs and Tom Kiely-Marshall on 9% from 43 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he should be favoured by the strong pace that is likely to materialise. He has won once from five runs on good ground with two placings and has course form reading fifth, fourth and third.
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3Al Fujairah49/100
Al Fujairah is a modest performer who has shown steady placed form in three starts at shorter trips. He steps up to 1m2f today which asks a fresh question of him as he drops in class. Trainer Iain Jardine has a 9% strike rate from 171 runs at Redcar while jockey Jack Callan is 9% from 11 rides here. Tending to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence, he is one of those who will help ensure the strong pace. He has been placed once from one run on good ground and has no course form on record.
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4Sutton Hoo45/100
Sutton Hoo is a modest performer who has been well below form on his last two starts. He drops back in trip today having won at this distance earlier in his career, though the first-time headgear is an unknown. Trainer Stephen Hanlon has only a small sample at Redcar with a 0% strike rate from four runs while the jockey has a solid 17% strike rate here from 12 rides. Tending to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence, he will be to the fore in what is expected to be a strong pace. He has had two runs on good ground without a win or place and has no course form on record.
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5Cosmic Man45/100
Cosmic Man is a modest performer who has struggled since a fair debut fourth, finishing well held in three starts this season. First-time headgear is now fitted as he steps up in trip for the first time having failed to make an impact at this distance on his only previous attempt. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he should be suited by the race shape. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Redcar.
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6Sweet Kiss44/100
Sweet Kiss is a modest performer who has been consistent this year without winning, finishing placed on three of her last four starts including a good second over course and distance last time. She has a solid record at this trip with three wins from 11 runs and handles good ground well enough. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high confidence, she will be suited by the strong pace. The Tim Easterby yard has a modest strike rate here while David Allan fares a bit better.
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7Lady Hornblower44/100
Lady Hornblower is a modest performer who has shown only fair form at best in nine starts and arrives here in ordinary heart after a string of mid-pack finishes. She steps up in trip for the first time today having failed to land a blow over 1m2f on her sole previous attempt, while the first-time headgear is another unknown. Usually held up and producing her effort late with medium confidence, she should appreciate the pace. Trainer’s modest record at Redcar is offset by the jockey’s solid 14% strike rate here.
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8Hey Havana40/100
Hey Havana is a limited performer who has been placed on four of his eight starts on good ground and has shown consistent form at this track with two seconds and a fourth from three runs. He drops back in trip today having last run over 1m3f and this distance is an unknown for him. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will be suited by the strong pace. The trainer has a 9% strike rate from 224 runs here while the jockey has a 10% strike rate from 627 rides at Redcar.
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9Idyllic37/100
Idyllic is a limited performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He drops back in trip to a distance at which he has won once from 13 starts and acts on good ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence, he should be helped by the race shape. The yard has a modest 4% strike rate at Redcar from a large sample while the jockey fares a little better at 8%.
KTB verdict
Golden Caviar is the KTB Selection. He has shown steady placed form at this trip in his two starts since debut, remains lightly raced with only three outings, and drops in class while being ideally suited by the strong pace that is forecast to collapse late. The combination of the Ed Dunlop yard’s 17% strike rate at Redcar and Hector Crouch’s excellent 31% record at the track adds further appeal. His main dangers are likely to be Titian, who has been placed on all three previous visits to the course and has winning form at the trip, and Al Fujairah, who can set the pace and has shown consistent placed form so far.
KTB Selection Golden Caviar
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 9 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Golden Caviar | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Titian | 8/1 | William Hill |
| Al Fujairah | 4/1 | 7Bet |
| Sutton Hoo | 18/1 | 7Bet |
| Cosmic Man | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| Sweet Kiss | 3/1 | Bet365 |
| Lady Hornblower | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Hey Havana | 7/1 | William Hill |
| Idyllic | 6/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 3:54 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the expected strong pace?
Golden Caviar is best suited as he is usually held up and produces his effort late.
How many previous wins has Titian had at this trip?
Titian has won four times at this distance in the past.
What is the course record of Sweet Kiss?
Sweet Kiss has one run here which produced a second.
Which runners are likely to set the pace?
Al Fujairah and Sutton Hoo both tend to make the running or race on the pace.
What headgear is being fitted to Sutton Hoo and Lady Hornblower?
Sutton Hoo and Lady Hornblower are both wearing first-time headgear.
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