4:24 Redcar
This Class 6 handicap at Redcar over 5f 217y on good ground features a field of 17 limited performers, many of whom have been knocking on the door without winning of late. The KTB Fit scores reflect a race with few standouts, though Hurstwood edges matters on 65 while the remainder are tightly bunched between 59 and 30. With the majority of the field tending to race held up, the pace shape points to an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for late closers to overcome.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead with little pressure from prominent runners. Most of the field, including all five principals, are held-up types who produce their effort late, which could leave them with plenty to do if the leader gets an easy time up front. Stormy Pearl is the one horse likely to race prominently, while Lesley Buckley has front-running tendencies and could contest the early pace. The key question is whether any of the closers can bridge the gap in the final furlong on a track where an easy lead has often proved decisive.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Hurstwood KTB Selection65/100
Hurstwood is a limited performer who has been in and out this season but showed he retains ability when winning over this trip at Musselburgh last time. He has a solid record here with two wins from seven runs and the trainer and jockey both hold above-average strike rates at the track. The nine-year-old has only one win from 17 starts on good ground though and is drawn widest of all in stall 17. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the race to fall right given the uncontested lead likely to be enjoyed by the front-runner. The Peter Niven and Mark Winn combination brings a 4/27 record with an A/E of 1.39, while the trainer's 11% strike rate at Redcar carries an A/E of 1.37 from 82 runs and the jockey's 20% strike rate here has an A/E of 1.72 from 66 rides.
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2Soul Warrior59/100
Soul Warrior is a limited class performer who has been largely out of form this season yet showed he can handle this track when winning here on his only previous visit. He has won at today's trip and has placed on good ground, though he has failed to trouble the judge in three of his last four starts. The three-year-old is another who usually races held up and produces his effort late. Nigel Tinkler's modest 7% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 0.87 from 914 runs is offset by Alex Jary's solid 13% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.76 from 77 rides. The trainer and jockey combination shows 47/493 with an A/E of 0.94.
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3Blindfold Games55/100
Blindfold Games is a limited performer who has shown bits of ability at this trip without winning, including two placed efforts from eight attempts. This will be his first run at Redcar and he is unproven on good ground, which adds unknowns at this stage. The three-year-old usually races held up and produces his effort late. Edward Bethell strikes at a solid 24% at the track with an A/E of 1.2 from 98 runs, though jockey P J McDonald is more modest at 10% with an A/E of 0.84 from 627 rides. The trainer and jockey combination records 31/196 with an A/E of 0.90.
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4Night Emperor51/100
Night Emperor is a limited horse who has shown just enough to be competitive at this level. He has won over this trip and at this track from only three visits, though his recent form has been patchy with just one success from his last six starts. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 16. Tina Jackson's modest 6% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 0.78 from 123 runs is offset by Warren Fentiman's solid 16% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.19 from 37 rides. The trainer and jockey combination shows 4/13 with an A/E of 1.64.
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5Ridgemaster50/100
Ridgemaster is a limited class performer who has been knocking on the door without winning lately, finishing placed on four of his last six starts. He drops back to 5f today having been placed at the trip earlier in his career, though he has never run at Redcar. The four-year-old usually races held up and produces his effort late from stall 2. Simon Waugh has a solid 10% strike rate here from a small sample with an A/E of 1.98 from 10 runs, while Amie Waugh remains winless from 47 rides at the track. The trainer and jockey combination records 10/150 with an A/E of 0.94.
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6Golden Prosperity49/100
Golden Prosperity is a limited class performer who has been placed a few times this year but is now 0-19 since his last win. He has shown some ability at this track but his four runs here read modestly overall. He drops back to a trip he has won at in the past while the yard and jockey both have solid strike rates at Redcar.
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7Stormy Pearl43/100
Stormy Pearl is a limited performer who has been largely consistent this year without winning. She has a solid course record here including a win from 14 runs and has also won on good ground as well as at today's trip. Both trainer and jockey have modest records at Redcar.
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8Sovereign Class42/100
Sovereign Class is a limited performer who has shown little spark in three runs this year and now drops back from a mile to a trip where he has been placed but never won. He is competitive on good ground but has looked modest overall. Trainer and jockey both have established records at Redcar without setting the place alight.
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9Long Shot41/100
Long Shot is a limited performer who has been placed three times from five runs at Redcar without winning. He drops back to 5f today having been placed at the trip earlier in the year, though his recent form has been patchy and he is now 0-13. Trainer and jockey both have solid if unspectacular records at the track.
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10Hyrcanian37/100
Hyrcanian is a limited performer who has struggled at this track, finishing tenth on all three previous visits. He has shown the odd bit of ability at today's trip but is 0-7 in this sphere and has been well beaten on his last four starts. Trainer's modest 6% strike-rate here from a big sample is offset by the jockey's 11% from his small number of rides.
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11Ziva's Star36/100
Ziva's Star is a limited performer who has shown occasional spark at this track, finishing second and fourth from five runs here. She has placed on good ground and at today's trip without winning either, and her recent form has been modest at best. The trainer's poor 2% strike rate at Redcar is a clear negative while the jockey's record is more respectable.
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12Pinpoint35/100
Pinpoint is a limited performer who has been placed on both previous visits to Redcar without winning. He has shown consistent form of late with three placed efforts in his last five runs but remains winless in 33 starts over the past year. The trainer's modest 3% strike rate at the track and the wide draw in stall 13 add to the negatives on good ground where he has two wins from ten runs.
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13Ninety Nine35/100
Ninety Nine is a limited performer who has shown very little spark in recent starts and looks up against it from a modest career record. He has run just once at Redcar and never won or placed on good ground in nine attempts. Trainer's poor strike-rate at the track adds to the negatives while the jockey at least brings a solid 14% record here.
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14Brave Bob35/100
Brave Bob is a limited performer who has been placed once in his last three starts but has failed to win in 12 career runs. He has shown little at this track in three previous visits and has never placed on good ground. The step up in trip today asks a fresh question of a horse that has already been tried seven times at this distance without success.
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15Lesley Buckley34/100
Lesley Buckley is a limited performer who has failed to place in nine starts and looks up against it from a wide draw. She drops back to 5f today having shown nothing at that trip earlier in the season. Jockey has a solid 14% strike rate here from 85 rides but the yard has no recorded runners at Redcar.
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16Breeze Star31/100
Breeze Star is a limited performer who has shown little since an early 8th on debut here. She steps up in trip today having failed to place in three previous attempts at this distance and looks poorly treated on recent form. Trainer's modest record at the track adds little confidence.
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17Captain Bentley30/100
Captain Bentley is a limited horse who has been out of form for some time and showed little spark when eighth on his last two starts here. He has never won or placed on good ground or at this trip in six attempts, and first-time headgear is now reached for. Trainer has only one previous runner at the track so that side remains unknown.
KTB verdict
Hurstwood is the KTB Selection. A limited performer who has been in and out this season, he showed he retains ability when winning over this trip at Musselburgh last time and brings a solid record at Redcar with two wins from seven runs. The trainer and jockey both hold above-average strike rates at the track, and although he has only one win from 17 starts on good ground and is drawn widest of all, his ability to produce a late effort fits the shape if the leader can be reeled in. Main dangers include Soul Warrior, who won here on his only previous visit, and Night Emperor, who has won over this trip and at this track, while Ridgemaster has been knocking on the door of late and Blindfold Games cannot be entirely dismissed despite the unknowns.
KTB Selection Hurstwood
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 9 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Hurstwood | 9/2 | 7Bet |
| Soul Warrior | 20/1 | William Hill |
| Blindfold Games | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Night Emperor | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Ridgemaster | 8/1 | Bet365 |
| Golden Prosperity | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Stormy Pearl | 7/1 | 7Bet |
| Sovereign Class | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Long Shot | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Hyrcanian | 50/1 | 7Bet |
| Ziva's Star | 8/1 | BoyleSports |
| Pinpoint | 6/1 | 7Bet |
| Ninety Nine | 40/1 | 7Bet |
| Brave Bob | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Lesley Buckley | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Breeze Star | 40/1 | 7Bet |
| Captain Bentley | 50/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 4:24 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Hurstwood the selection despite his wide draw and modest record on good ground?
Hurstwood is the selection as he showed he retains ability when winning over this trip at Musselburgh last time, has a solid record here with two wins from seven runs, and the trainer and jockey both hold above-average strike rates at the track.
How does the uncontested lead in the pace shape affect the held-up principals?
With one clear front-runner and little to pressure it, the pace shape suggests an uncontested lead that can be hard for closers to peg back, and all five principals are held-up types who usually produce their effort late.
What are the key course factors for the principals at Redcar?
Hurstwood has won here twice from seven runs, Soul Warrior and Night Emperor have each won here from one and three visits respectively, while Blindfold Games and Ridgemaster have no course form on record.
Which horse is most likely to challenge for the early lead?
Lesley Buckley tends to make the running or race on the pace, while Stormy Pearl usually races handily on or close to the lead; the remainder of the field are held-up types.
What does the trainer and jockey combination data show for Hurstwood?
The trainer and jockey combination for Hurstwood shows 4/27 (15%) with an A/E of 1.39 and -£5.67 LSP.
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