4:52 Epsom
This Class 5 handicap over 1m 113y at Epsom on good to soft ground brings together ten three-year-olds, several of whom arrive in modest but consistent form. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Mayaada heading the list on 60, followed closely by Eastern Veil, Sail On Sailor, Arbaawy and Island Bear. Course form is a significant factor at this quirky track, and the race features a notable pace bias that could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to one clear front-runner facing little pressure and an uncontested lead that closers may struggle to overcome. Island Bear is the only front-runner in the field and looks set to dictate matters from the front. The remaining nine runners are all held-up types who will be aiming to produce their efforts late, making the key question whether any of them can bridge the gap to an unpressured leader on this track.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Mayaada KTB Selection60/100
Mayaada is a modest performer who has won once and placed once from two runs at Epsom. She drops back from 1m4f to a trip where she has been placed on both starts without winning, and she has handled good to soft ground. The trainer holds a solid 14% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.42 from seven runs, while the 5lb claimer has yet to ride at Epsom. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she is drawn in stall 3 and her recent form reads 104244. The selection can capitalise on the uncontested lead up ahead given her course record.
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2Eastern Veil58/100
Eastern Veil is a modest performer who showed fair form when winning at this trip on debut last season and has posted two solid placed efforts since returning this year. Stall 1 hands him a good draw at Epsom while the yard and jockey both hold established records at the track, the trainer operating at 16% with an A/E of 0.9 from 454 runs and the jockey at 13% with an A/E of 0.84 from 77 rides. The trip looks ideal but the going remains an unknown with only four runs on the board and no experience of good to soft. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his recent form reads 61-35 and he is another who will be aiming to close late off an uncontested lead.
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3Sail On Sailor57/100
Sail On Sailor is a modest performer who has won once from three starts at Epsom and arrives in reasonable form having won two of his last six starts. He drops back in trip today having last run over a mile and a quarter which poses a fresh question, while he has two runs on good to soft without a win or place. The trainer operates at a 9% strike rate here from a big sample of 535 runs with an A/E of 0.9, though the jockey is more positive with a 17% record from 35 rides and an A/E of 1.2. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, his recent form reads 311156 and a repeat of his course success would put him firmly in the mix.
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4Arbaawy55/100
Arbaawy is a fair performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning. He steps up in trip having shown little on his one previous try at this distance and has failed to place in two runs on good to soft ground. The trainer holds a modest 7% strike rate at Epsom from 14 runs with an A/E of 0.72, while the jockey has no recorded rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he drops in class and his recent form reads 433403. He will need to find extra if he is to overcome the leader from rear.
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5Island Bear54/100
Island Bear is a modest performer who has been largely consistent without progressing in recent starts. He drops back in trip having looked stretched over 1m2f last time, though he has already tried today's distance without success, and he has two runs on good to soft without a win or place. The trainer's modest strike rate at Epsom stands at 9% with an A/E of 0.57 from 11 runs, offset by the jockey's solid record of 18% with an A/E of 1.95 from 28 rides. Tending to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, his recent form reads -75464 and he is the one who can take advantage of the lone-leader pace shape to dictate from the front.
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6Royal Bodyguard51/100
Royal Bodyguard is a modest performer with a solid recent record that includes a win and a second in his last two starts. He steps up in trip for the first time today having shown placed form on good to soft ground but no win on it, while the yard has a 10% strike rate at Epsom from 202 runs with an A/E of 0.72 and the jockey is 13% from 120 rides with an A/E of 0.87. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his recent form reads 836421.
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7Likeness51/100
Likeness is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning. She steps up in trip today having last run over 7.5f, which poses a fresh question, while the good to soft ground is also unproven. The trainer has a solid 15% strike rate at Epsom from 34 runs with an A/E of 1.03 and the jockey is 10% from 20 rides with an A/E of 0.88. Usually held up and producing her effort late, her recent form reads 22-452 and she drops in class.
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8My Old Mate50/100
My Old Mate is a modest performer with a solid recent record of 821132 that includes two wins. He steps up in trip today having never tried this distance before while making a first appearance at Epsom. The trainer and jockey both have established records here with 15% and 17% strike rates respectively and A/E figures of 0.93 and 1.08. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he remains competitive on good to soft having placed once from three runs.
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9Wild Dahlia49/100
Wild Dahlia is a fair performer who showed promise when winning a maiden last year before two solid placed efforts in better company. She has been below that level on both starts this season and is now trying this trip for the first time after racing mainly over shorter, with two runs on good to soft without a win or place. The trainer's modest 10% strike rate at Epsom comes with an A/E of 0.55 from 149 runs, offset by the jockey's strong 18% record with an A/E of 1.14 from 49 rides. Usually held up, her recent form reads 412-36 and she drops in class.
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10Fizzy Bear40/100
Fizzy Bear has shown only limited ability in five runs and failed to land a blow when fifth on his only visit to this track. He steps up in trip today having looked stretched at a mile last time out and has no experience of good to soft ground. The yard has a solid 11% strike rate at Epsom from 122 runs with an A/E of 0.85 while the 5lb claimer is operating at a similar level from limited rides here. Usually held up, his recent form reads 50504 and he steps up in class.
KTB verdict
Mayaada is the KTB Selection and looks to hold solid claims as a modest performer with a winning course record at Epsom. She has been placed both times at this trip without winning and has handled good to soft ground, while the trainer's 14% strike rate at the track with a positive A/E adds further appeal. The uncontested lead promised by the pace shape should suit the closers if they can time their runs, but the selection's prior success here gives her the edge. Main dangers are Eastern Veil, who benefits from a good draw and strong yard and jockey records at the track, and Sail On Sailor, who has already won at Epsom and arrives in reasonable form.
KTB Selection Mayaada
This is the narrative read of the 4:52 Epsom. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Epsom racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Epsom results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Island Bear is the only front-runner in the field and tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence.
How many runners have previous winning form at Epsom?
Mayaada has won once from two runs at Epsom and Sail On Sailor has won once from three starts at the track.
Which horse is dropping back in trip from 1m4f?
Mayaada drops back from 1m4f to a trip where she has been placed both starts without winning.
Who has the strongest jockey record at Epsom among the principals?
Pierre-Louis Jamin has an 18% strike rate at Epsom with an A/E of 1.95 from 28 rides when riding Island Bear.
Which runners are unproven on good to soft ground?
Eastern Veil, Likeness and Fizzy Bear have no runs on good to soft and remain unproven on the surface.
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