5:20 Beverley
This Class 6 handicap division at Beverley over 1m100y on good ground features a field of ten limited performers where the KTB Fit scores range from 65 down to 35. The race looks likely to revolve around an uncontested lead according to the pace shape, which could make things tough for those coming from off the pace. Casilli tops the KTB Fit ratings at 65 and is the clear selection, with his proven record at the track and trip giving him the edge over rivals who largely arrive with modest or unproven form here.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will get an uncontested lead that could prove hard for closers to reel in late on. Most of the field are held-up types who produce their effort late, which sets up a test of whether any prominent racer can get close enough to the leader or if the held-up brigade can close the gap on good ground. Diamond Aura is the one noted as a front-runner, but the shape implies a clear leader may get its own way. The key question is whether the leader can be pegged back or if the race will be won from the front in these conditions.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Casilli KTB Selection65/100
Casilli is a limited performer who has nevertheless run consistently enough to win five times at Beverley from 16 starts. He drops back to his winning trip today having last run over 1m2f and holds a solid record on good ground with three wins and six places from 13 starts. The Easterby yard posts a 14% strike rate here from 240 runs while the 5lb claimer Shay Farmer is aboard. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time out front. His course record and proven ability at the trip and on the ground make him the one to beat from draw 10.
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2Star Suepreme52/100
Star Suepreme is a limited performer who has struggled in four starts to date and now drops back in trip having last run over a mile and a half. First-time headgear is tried in a bid to spark improvement. The trainer has a strong 60% strike rate at Beverley from a small sample, though the yard's small-sample record must be treated with some caution. Usually racing prominently and on or close to the lead, this three-year-old could be one of the few to chase the likely uncontested leader. With no runs on good ground he remains unproven on the surface and has no course form on record, leaving him with plenty to prove from draw 4.
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3Love You More48/100
Love You More is a limited performer who has won once from seven starts at this trip but has struggled for consistency overall with a recent form line of 270716. First run at Beverley so the track is an unknown while the yard has failed to score in five attempts here. Luke Morris has a modest 12% strike rate from 155 rides at the track and this one has only placed once in two runs on good ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to find extra in a race where the leader could prove hard to catch. The combination of a new track, modest trainer record here and limited overall profile leaves him with questions to answer from draw 5.
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4Copper And Five46/100
Copper And Five is a limited handicapper who has been around a long time and remains consistent enough to place regularly. He has won over this trip in the past and returns to it today after a step back from 1m2f, while his record at Beverley reads one win from seven runs. The yard's modest 9% strike-rate here from a big sample is another negative to weigh against his placed efforts on good ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to close in the straight but may find the leader difficult to reel in. At the age of ten he retains enough ability to place but looks vulnerable to anything improving.
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5Itszaboy42/100
Itszaboy is a limited performer who has shown little spark in nine starts this year and finished no better than fifth on his last two outings. He has been beaten a long way on his only visit to Beverley and holds no obvious edge on good ground. The yard and rider both have modest records at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, this three-year-old will need the race to fall his way if he is to get competitive. With a recent form line of 066525 he arrives without obvious claims and the modest trainer and jockey strike rates at Beverley add to the negatives from draw 7.
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6Kameel41/100
Kameel is a limited performer who has been consistent enough to place twice from his last six starts but remains winless after 20 runs. Dropping back to 1m today poses a fresh question having failed to win in six previous attempts at the trip and he showed little on his only visit to Beverley. The yard records a modest 8% strike-rate here from 38 runs.
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7Elettaria40/100
Elettaria is a limited performer who has been a regular at Beverley without winning in 12 runs, though she has managed a couple of placed efforts. She has shown competitive form on good ground and at this trip without getting her head in front, and her recent efforts have been respectable without suggesting she is about to break the losing run. Both trainer and jockey have modest records at the track.
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8Golden Samba39/100
Golden Samba is a limited performer who has shown only modest form in recent starts and is now dropping in trip to a distance it has never tried. It has been competitive on good ground without winning and makes its first visit to Beverley. Both trainer and jockey have modest 9% strike rates here from large samples.
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9Al Baahy38/100
Al Baahy is a limited performer on his overall record and has been struggling for form this year with a string of mid-pack finishes. He steps up in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance in the past while his record on good ground reads just one win from nine runs. The yard has had too few runners at Beverley to judge while Jason Hart has a solid 11% strike-rate at the track from over 400 rides.
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10Diamond Aura35/100
Diamond Aura is a limited performer who has shown inconsistent form across 11 starts and now drops back in trip. Has never won and looks modest at this level on recent ratings. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 10% strike rate here.
KTB verdict
Casilli stands out as the KTB Selection with a Fit score of 65 and a strong record of five wins from 16 starts at Beverley. His proven ability at the trip, solid placed form on good ground and the Easterby yard's respectable 14% strike rate at the track all point to a big run from off the pace. The uncontested lead predicted by the pace shape could make life difficult for the held-up contingent, but Casilli has the course-and-distance profile to overcome that. His main dangers are likely to come from Copper And Five, who retains consistency at a trip he has won over, and possibly Star Suepreme if the first-time headgear sparks the required improvement from a prominent position.
KTB Selection Casilli
This is the narrative read of the 5:20 Beverley. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Beverley racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Beverley results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Casilli the KTB Selection?
Casilli tops the KTB Fit ratings at 65, has won five times at Beverley from 16 starts, drops back to his winning trip, and holds a solid record on good ground with three wins and six places from 13 starts.
How does the pace shape influence the race?
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to one clear front-runner with little pressure and an uncontested lead that can be hard for closers to peg back.
What is the significance of first-time headgear for Star Suepreme?
First-time headgear is tried in a bid to spark improvement in a limited performer who has struggled in four starts to date.
Which horses have previous Beverley wins?
Casilli has won here five times from 16 starts and Copper And Five has won here once from seven runs.
Who are the prominent or front-running horses in the field?
Star Suepreme usually races prominently and on or close to the lead, while Diamond Aura tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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