1:55 Ayr
This Class 2 EBF nursery handicap at Ayr over six furlongs on soft ground brings together 13 two-year-olds, several of whom remain unproven on the surface. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Siouxperb and Baddaddan separated by just a single point, underlining a competitive field where class drops, headgear firsts and course experience will all come into play. Overall the numbers suggest a race that could be shaped as much by how the pace unfolds as by raw ability.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to Siouxperb being allowed an uncontested lead from his favourable draw. With the majority of the field, including Influencer Man, Crystal Queen, Dontlookanyfurther, Trumpety Trump and several others, all tending to be held up, there is little pressure on the front. The key question is whether the clear leader can build up an unassailable advantage on soft ground or whether the closers can reel him in late.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Siouxperb KTB Selection67/100
Siouxperb is a fair two-year-old with solid recent form that includes a win and a second. He drops back to six furlongs today, a trip at which he has already won from three attempts. The yard holds a strong 31% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.41 from 61 runs, and Daniel Tudhope posts a steady 15% strike rate at the track from 815 rides. Connections are dropping him in class, which looks a positive move. His front-running style matches the race shape perfectly from draw four, though he remains unproven on soft ground and has no previous course form. Overall this looks a good opportunity for him.
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2Baddaddan66/100
Baddaddan is a fair performer who won over this trip on debut and has shown mixed form since. First-time headgear is now applied after two modest efforts and the wide draw in stall 12 is far from ideal on soft ground. The trainer and jockey both hold solid records at Ayr, with the yard posting a 17% strike rate and an A/E of 1.29 from 42 runs, while Saffie Osborne has a 27% strike rate and A/E of 1.47 from just 11 rides here. He steps up in class today. While his ability is not in question, the combination of the wide draw and the surface he has yet to encounter makes this a stiffer task.
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3Influencer Man61/100
Influencer Man is a fair performer who has shown a mix of promise and disappointment across four starts. He ran respectably when fourth over course and distance on his penultimate start yet failed to build on that last time. First-time headgear is now fitted as he steps back up to six furlongs on soft ground. The trainer has a 19% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.2 from 177 runs, and the jockey has a 14% strike rate with an A/E of 1.24 from 14 rides. His held-up run style means he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time up front.
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4Crystal Queen58/100
Crystal Queen is a fair two-year-old who has shown mixed form, including a win and a second on her first two starts before two poor efforts. She ran well to finish second on her only previous visit to Ayr but has no win at this trip and the going remains an unknown with just four runs on the board. The Fahey team have a solid 14% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.35 from 22 runs while the 3lb claimer is operating at a modest 4% strike rate from his 23 rides at the track. Her held-up style with high confidence will see her biding her time behind the likely clear leader.
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5Dontlookanyfurther56/100
Dontlookanyfurther is a useful sort who has won two of three starts including at this trip. Stall one is a plus on soft ground but the yard's modest record at Ayr, an 8% strike rate with an A/E of 0.53 from 51 runs, tempers expectations. Jockey Jason Hart has a solid 13% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.95 from 564 rides and the colt remains open to improvement. His held-up run style carries limited evidence but low confidence in the data. He will be another looking to close late if the leader gets his own way.
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6Trumpety Trump55/100
Trumpety Trump is a fair two-year-old who has shown consistent form, finishing in the first four on all four starts including a win last time out. He has already won on soft ground and at today's trip, while his third on this track suggests the course suits. The yard's modest 10% strike-rate at Ayr is offset by the jockey's solid 12% record here.
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7Gladys Pugh53/100
Gladys Pugh is a fair performer who has shown consistent form in three runs, finishing second over this trip on her latest start. She is lightly raced so the soft ground remains an unknown. The trainer has a modest record at Ayr but the jockey is operating above expectations here.
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8Mind Those Steps52/100
Mind Those Steps is a fair performer who won over this trip on debut then finished third in a stronger race at York. He has twice failed to fire since and now tries headgear for the first time. Trainer and jockey both have solid rather than sparkling records at Ayr.
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9Furturra49/100
Furturra is a fair performer who has been busy this year and showed mixed form, landing a win at this trip but finishing down the field on his last two starts over 5f. He steps up in distance today having already won over 6f once from eight attempts, though he remains unproven on soft ground. The yard posts an 11% strike rate at Ayr while the jockey is operating at 13%.
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10Tropical Crown47/100
Tropical Crown showed fair form when winning on debut over 5f before finishing fifth in a stronger race last time. He steps up to 6f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate at Ayr while the jockey is operating at a 5% strike rate from 22 rides here.
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11Deputy Vice41/100
Deputy Vice is a modest performer who has shown consistent form in four starts, finishing no worse than third including a placed effort over today's trip. Stall two looks fine and the yard has a solid record at Ayr though the claiming jockey is operating at a lower strike rate here. Data confidence is high but the soft ground remains an unknown with such a light career.
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12Turnstile40/100
Turnstile is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning, placing once in five starts at this trip. No experience on soft ground adds a question mark today, though the yard's solid record at Ayr suggests they know what they need to do with their runners here. First run at the track is neutral given the high data confidence from ratings and race history.
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13Inns And Out38/100
Inns And Out is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this season with a win at Carlisle and a solid third at York. He drops back to 6f today having been placed at the trip earlier without winning, though the recent 7½f run suggests stamina is not an issue. Trainer and jockey both have solid if unspectacular records at Ayr.
KTB verdict
Siouxperb is the KTB Selection. He brings solid recent form, a win at today's trip already on his record, a perfect front-running style for the shape of the race and strong yard figures at Ayr. The drop in class further strengthens his claims and his draw allows him to dictate terms. Main dangers are likely to come from Baddaddan, who is of similar ability and benefits from first-time headgear despite the wide draw, and the course-experienced pair Influencer Man and Crystal Queen, both of whom can close late if the leader falters on the soft ground.
KTB Selection Siouxperb
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:02 UTC, 18 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Siouxperb | 6/1 | 7Bet |
| Baddaddan | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Influencer Man | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| Crystal Queen | 12/1 | BetMGM |
| Dontlookanyfurther | 11/8 | 7Bet |
| Trumpety Trump | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Gladys Pugh | 20/1 | Bet365 |
| Mind Those Steps | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Furturra | 20/1 | Bet Victor |
| Tropical Crown | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Deputy Vice | 12/1 | 7Bet |
| Turnstile | 40/1 | 7Bet |
| Inns And Out | 25/1 | Bet Victor |
This is the narrative read of the 1:55 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ayr results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to get an uncontested lead?
Siouxperb, whose front-running style matches the lone-leader pace shape with high confidence.
How many of the field remain unproven on soft ground?
The majority, with only Trumpety Trump having won on soft from one run and Deputy Vice having two runs without placing.
Which runners have previous course form at Ayr?
Influencer Man finished fourth on his only visit, Crystal Queen was second on her only visit, and Trumpety Trump was third on his only visit.
Who applies first-time headgear in this race?
Baddaddan, Influencer Man and Mind Those Steps.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Ayr among those represented?
Archie Watson with a 31% strike rate at Ayr and an A/E of 1.41 from 61 runs.
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