2:47 Downpatrick
This 2m1f165y handicap hurdle (Div I) at Downpatrick on good ground brings together a field of 13 where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top end, ranging from 53 down to 34. The race lacks a natural leader and looks set to be a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy could prove advantageous. Two Can Plan heads the KTB Fit ratings as the selection despite a string of modest efforts this year, while several others arrive with placed course form or recent consistency that keeps the contest competitive.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious leader in the field and the pace shape pointing to a lack of early pace, the race is likely to be run at a steady tempo in which those positioned handy can conserve energy for a tactical sprint. Most of the principals, including the selection Two Can Plan, Tropical Twist, Mercurial Sea, Pahlavi and Whispering Hopes, are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the key question is whether any of them can negotiate the steady gallop well enough to land a telling blow from off the pace. The race could be won or lost in the closing stages once the tempo lifts, with positioning on the turn into the straight likely to be critical.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Two Can Plan KTB Selection53/100
Two Can Plan is a useful performer who has been well below that level in five runs this year and was pulled up on his last completed start. The step up in trip poses a fresh question while the yard's modest record at Downpatrick offers little encouragement. Jockey has a solid strike rate here though. He is the KTB Selection with a Fit score of 53 and will be held up, producing his effort late in what is expected to be a steadily-run race. Recent form figures of 067P-0 underline the dip in form yet he remains the top-rated on KTB figures in a race where being handy pays.
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2Tropical Twist52/100
Tropical Twist is a useful performer on his day and has solid recent form with a win and two placed efforts in his last five starts. He has been consistent at Downpatrick without winning and acts on good ground having scored once from four attempts. The trip looks on the short side for him and the 7 lb claimer has yet to strike at this track from 14 rides. Rated just behind the selection on KTB Fit at 52, he will be held up and produce his effort late. His course form reads 8th, 4th, 6th while recent figures of P-5418 show he is competitive when on song.
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3Mercurial Sea51/100
Mercurial Sea is a useful performer who has run well here twice without winning, finishing second in both placed efforts at this track. He drops back from 2m6f to a trip where he is two from two in the frame, though he has never won on good ground despite four placed efforts from seven starts. Trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Downpatrick is a negative while the jockey's 9% record offers only limited encouragement. With a KTB Fit of 51 he will be held up, as is his usual style. Recent form of 6-2828 confirms his ability to place without getting his head in front.
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4Pahlavi50/100
Pahlavi is a useful performer who has won both here and at today's trip. He has been out of form for most of this season though, with a string of modest efforts and a pulled-up run. The trainer's modest record at Downpatrick and the jockey's complete lack of success at the track add further negatives. Carrying a KTB Fit score of 50, he will race held up and produce his effort late. Course winner from three runs, his recent form reads 655P56 and he has scored once from 19 starts on good ground.
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5Whispering Hopes48/100
Whispering Hopes is a useful performer who has placed both here and over today's trip without winning. He drops back from 2m4f having shown competitive form on good ground. Trainer's modest 3% strike-rate at the track is a negative while the claiming jockey has too few rides here to judge. Rated 48 on KTB Fit, he will be held up in a steadily-run affair. Recent form of F6083- shows placed efforts, including a second at this course, and he has been placed four times from 11 starts on good ground.
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6Glendaars Crystal45/100
Glendaars Crystal is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He has shown very little in four starts so far and was beaten a long way on his only attempt at this trip. The trainer holds a solid 9% strike rate here from a big sample while the jockey is operating at 6%. KTB Fit 45 and held up in his running style.
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7Might Be The One44/100
Might Be The One is a fair performer who has been consistent in recent starts without winning. He drops back in trip today having failed to place in two previous attempts at this distance and has never shown any spark on good ground in three runs. Trainer has a poor record here while the jockey is only modestly effective at the track. First-time headgear is an unknown. KTB Fit 44 and held up.
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8Paymelater43/100
Paymelater is a fair performer who has shown only modest form this season and finished well down the field on both previous visits to Downpatrick. The yard has a poor record here and the first-time headgear is an unknown that needs to spark improvement if he is to be competitive. He drops back in trip today having been tried over further last time. KTB Fit 43 and held up.
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9John Dixen42/100
John Dixen is a modest performer who has shown a bit of promise on his latest two starts, finishing sixth then a close third over this trip at this track. The first-time headgear is an interesting addition and he stays the distance well enough. Trainer and jockey both have modest records here. KTB Fit 42 and held up.
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10Doyen Og41/100
Doyen Og is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. He steps up in trip today for the first time in over a year and that distance question is added to his first run at Downpatrick. Trainer has a poor record here while the jockey has done well with a 19% strike rate. KTB Fit 41 and held up.
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11Lucky This Time38/100
Lucky This Time is a fair performer who has been well beaten on all five starts to date and showed no encouragement when last seen. He steps up in trip with first-time headgear on today. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Downpatrick. KTB Fit 38 and held up.
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12Greenroad Girl38/100
Greenroad Girl is a fair sort who has shown only modest form in three starts so far. She has been beaten a fair way in both runs at this track and trip and the yard's poor record here adds little encouragement. The jockey has a solid strike rate at Downpatrick but there is not enough evidence yet to know if she will improve for the step back up in trip. KTB Fit 38 and held up.
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13Nelliestar34/100
Nelliestar is a fair performer on the balance of her ratings and overall record yet has failed to place in any of her 14 starts. She was well held on her only previous run here and has shown nothing on good ground in six attempts or over this trip in three starts. The trainer has had too few runners at Downpatrick to read and the jockey is still waiting for a first winner from 16 rides at the track. KTB Fit 34 and typically settles in midfield.
KTB verdict
Two Can Plan is the KTB Selection at the head of the Fit ratings despite a patchy record this season and the yard's modest record at Downpatrick. His jockey's solid strike rate at the track offers some encouragement in a steadily-run race where his held-up style may suit if the leaders come back to him. The main dangers are Tropical Twist, who brings solid recent form and a win on good ground, and Mercurial Sea, who has twice finished second over course and distance. Pahlavi cannot be entirely dismissed as a previous course-and-distance winner, while Whispering Hopes adds further depth with placed efforts at this track and trip.
KTB Selection Two Can Plan
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:18 UTC, 18 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Two Can Plan | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Tropical Twist | 4/1 | Bet Victor |
| Mercurial Sea | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Pahlavi | 12/1 | William Hill |
| Whispering Hopes | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Glendaars Crystal | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Might Be The One | 15/8 | Bet365 |
| Paymelater | 14/1 | Bet Victor |
| John Dixen | 13/2 | Bet Victor |
| Doyen Og | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Lucky This Time | 33/1 | Bet Victor |
| Greenroad Girl | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Nelliestar | 33/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 2:47 Downpatrick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Downpatrick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Downpatrick results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit score and is the selection?
Two Can Plan with a KTB Fit of 53/100 is the selection.
What is the expected pace shape of the race?
Lacks a leader with medium confidence, likely a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
How many horses in the field have course form at Downpatrick?
Several including Tropical Twist (three runs), Mercurial Sea (three runs), Pahlavi (three runs), Whispering Hopes (two runs), Paymelater (two runs), John Dixen (one run), Greenroad Girl (two runs) and Nelliestar (one run).
Which runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Might Be The One, Paymelater, John Dixen and Lucky This Time.
Who has the best trainer strike rate at Downpatrick among the principals?
Gordon Elliott with an 18% strike rate at Downpatrick for Tropical Twist.
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