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Trainer profile

S Michael Millar

164 runners in the last 5 seasons · 23 individual horses
As at 21 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 33 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2016→)
from 1 Jan 2022
2–164
Wins / Runs
1.2%
Strike rate
n=164
21 (13%)
Placed
0.42
Fair A/E
n=164 · 0.33 incl. margin
−131.00
£1 level stake
n=164 at SP · −79.9%
£51,354
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 1% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.42).

Deterministic profile computed from 164 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Aileen O'Sullivan: 1.5% from 65 Claiming riders: 1.4%
The read

The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 1.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.49 and −112.00 to a £1 stake over 145 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Aileen O'Sullivan rides 40% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (1.5%, A/E 0.69). The market has consistently overbet the yard over 2m1f – 2m4f: Fair A/E 0.00 across 62 runners (0% strike, −62.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 1.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−1.2
n=32 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −32.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−1.2
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−1.2
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−1.2
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−1.2
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
1.4%+0.2
n=145 · A/E 0.49 · £1 −112.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−1.2
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 1.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 0% vs 1.2% · n=62 · A/E 0.00
In Flat races 0% vs 1.2% · n=55 · A/E 0.00
With a new jockey booking 0% vs 1.2% · n=52 · A/E 0.00
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 77 1 1.3% −51.00
Flat 55 0 0% −55.00
NH Flat 25 1 4% −18.00
Chase 7 0 0% −7.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 55 1 1.8% −48.00
Soft 48 0 0% −48.00
Standard (AW) 22 0 0% −22.00
Good to Soft 20 1 5% +6.00
Heavy 19 0 0% −19.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Down Royal 22 0 0% −22.00
Dundalk (AW) 21 0 0% −21.00
Downpatrick 19 0 0% −19.00
Fairyhouse 16 1 6.3% −9.00
Navan 12 0 0% −12.00
Punchestown 11 0 0% −11.00
Kilbeggan 9 1 11.1% +17.00
Bellewstown 8 0 0% −8.00
Clonmel 8 0 0% −8.00
Sligo 8 0 0% −8.00
Wexford 7 0 0% −7.00
Naas 5 0 0% −5.00
Curragh 3 0 0% −3.00
Galway 3 0 0% −3.00
Tramore 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 4 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 1 0 0% 0.00 −1.00
2nd–3rd fav 11 0 0% 0.00 −11.00
4th–6th fav 27 1 3.7% 0.77 −20.00
7th+ in betting 125 1 0.8% 0.49 −99.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Breagagh (IRE)from M C Grassick 38 0 12 1 Jan 25
San Martino (IRE)from Peter Fahey 15 0 2 29 Jun 24
Paymelater (IRE) 14 0 2 18 Sep 26
Deo Bellator (IRE) 14 1 1 1 Oct 23
Drimsree Lad (IRE)from Dermot A McLoughlin 13 0 2 16 Dec 23
Carnival Spirit (IRE) 8 0 0 28 Nov 25
Hestheboycandoit (IRE) 7 0 0 30 Aug 24
Arctic Craft (IRE)from Hugh Paul Finegan 6 1 1 17 Mar 26
Hague Convention (IRE)from W J Bryson 6 0 0 29 Nov 23
Kalamkan (USA)from T G McCourt 6 0 0 7 Aug 22
Loughdoo (IRE) 5 0 0 28 Aug 26
Tomannie (IRE) 5 0 0 28 Sep 23
All 23 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 23 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive; 14 had their first archived run for this yard.

3 have since run for another yard; 20 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
000800000800
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderAileen O'Sullivan
40% of all rides
1.5% SR · A/E 0.69
RiderRWSR£1
Aileen O'Sullivan 65 1 1.5% −58.00
Mr N Gault 51 1 2% −25.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2016→
5
Archived wins
£84,067
Prize money
2020
Best season · 2 wins
American Image (IRE) — Clonmel Handicap Chase Clonmel · Oct 2020
£6,490
Arctic Craft (IRE) — Morgan Fuels Supporting Louth GAA (Ladies Pro/Am) Flat Race Fairyhouse · Oct 2024
£5,900
Deo Bellator (IRE) — Mullingar Handicap Hurdle (80-95) Kilbeggan · Apr 2022
£5,900
Notable horses
Deo Bellator (IRE) American Image (IRE) Lady Of The Sea (IRE) Arctic Craft (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Slade Power (IRE) 0% · 0–38
Progeny have won 9.5% of 2,938 runs since 2008 (208 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.4% from 125.
Getaway (GER) 6.7% · 1–15
Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,914 runs since 2008 (1,026 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.7% from 131.
The Gurkha (IRE) 0% · 0–15
Progeny have won 9.7% of 2,022 runs since 2008 (127 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.7% from 183. Weakest on Heavy going: 2.9% from 105. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.3% from 111.
Laverock (IRE) 0% · 0–14
Progeny have won 11.5% of 523 runs since 2008 (59 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 18.3% from 104. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 240.
Mr Combustible (IRE) 0% · 0–13
Progeny have won 6.9% of 638 runs since 2008 (53 horses).
Conduit (IRE) 0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 6.2% of 403 runs since 2008 (57 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 281 · newest first

The latest 50 of 281 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 17 June 2016 to 18 September 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
18 Sep 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Paymelater (IRE)J: Ricky Doyle MB McGrady And Co Chartered Accountants Handicap Hurdle (Div I)18f · Good · 12 ran PU 16/1
28 Aug 26 Down Royal (IRE) Loughdoo (IRE)J: Harry Sexton Dale Farm Dromona Mares Maiden Hurdle17.5f · Good · 10 ran 7th 200/1
09 Aug 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Paymelater (IRE)J: Ricky Doyle J Murdoch Contracts Maiden Hurdle22f · Good · 7 ran 6th 20/1
06 Aug 26 Sligo (IRE) Loughdoo (IRE)J: Mr N Gault Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race18.5f · Good · 8 ran 8th 40/1
04 Jul 26 Bellewstown Paymelater (IRE)J: Ricky Doyle Grimme Ireland Maiden Hurdle17f · Good · 16 ran 13th 66/1
14 Jun 26 Downpatrick Freeway (IRE)J: Aileen O'Sullivan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race18f · Good · 8 ran 6th 80/1
14 Jun 26 Downpatrick Paymelater (IRE)J: Harry Sexton Randox Maiden Hurdle19f · Good · 14 ran 7th 33/1
08 May 26 Downpatrick Freeway (IRE)J: Mr N Gault Joe Rea Memorial Mares Flat Race18f · Good · 9 ran 8th 125/1
17 Mar 26 Down Royal Freeway (IRE)J: Mr N Gault Bluegrass Mare Prepare Mares Flat Race17.5f · Yielding · 13 ran 10th 100/1
17 Mar 26 Down Royal Arctic Craft (IRE)J: Mr N Gault Bluegrass Relite Maiden Hurdle17.5f · Yielding · 19 ran 11th 150/1
20 Dec 25 Thurles Loughdoo (IRE)J: Mr N Gault Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Flat Race16f · Yielding To Soft · 16 ran 15th 100/1
29 Nov 25 Fairyhouse Loughdoo (IRE)J: Aileen O'Sullivan Willie Elliott Memorial (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Yielding To Soft · 11 ran PU 100/1
28 Nov 25 Dundalk (AW) Carnival Spirit (IRE)J: Wayne Hassett Floodlit Fridays At Dundalk Stadium Nursery Handicap (0-60)6f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 66/1
23 Nov 25 Punchestown Paymelater (IRE)J: Mr N Gault Jimmy Hayes Memorial (Pro/Am) Flat Race17f · Soft To Heavy · 6 ran 6th 125/1
22 Nov 25 Punchestown Arctic Craft (IRE)J: Aileen O'Sullivan Exhibit A Displays (Pro/Am) Flat Race16.5f · Soft To Heavy · 8 ran 7th 66/1
19 Nov 25 Dundalk (AW) Carnival Spirit (IRE)J: Aileen O'Sullivan Irishinjuredjockeys.com Nursery Handicap (0-60)7f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 40/1
14 Nov 25 Dundalk (AW) Carnival Spirit (IRE)J: Wesley Joyce View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Nursery Handicap8f · Standard · 12 ran 7th 100/1
01 Nov 25 Down Royal Paymelater (IRE)J: Aileen O'Sullivan Eventsec (Pro/Am) Flat Race17f · Yielding · 6 ran 4th 33/1
09 Oct 25 Tramore Paymelater (IRE)J: Aileen O'Sullivan Copper Coast (Ladies Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Yielding · 8 ran 6th 18/1
29 Sep 25 Down Royal Carnival Spirit (IRE)J: Aileen O'Sullivan Molson Coors Beverage Company Nursery Handicap5f · Yielding · 12 ran 12th 100/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is S Michael Millar's strike rate?
S Michael Millar has won 2 of 164 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 1.2% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Who rides most for S Michael Millar?
Aileen O'Sullivan, with 65 runners since 2022 — 40% of the total. That pairing has won 1 (1.5%).
What is S Michael Millar's Fair A/E?
0.42, from 164 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 21 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).