1:20 Ayr
This Class 2 handicap over a mile at Ayr on soft ground brings together a field of 14 with little in the way of exposed pace. The KTB numbers highlight a strong bias towards course and distance performers, with several runners boasting solid Ayr records and proven ability on soft ground. Thunder Roar tops the KTB Fit ratings at 69 and is the clear selection, while the remainder of the principals sit between 59 and 63, suggesting a competitive but not impossible task for the top pick.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for the many held-up types to reel in. That's Amore and Salam Dubawi are the only runners with front-running or prominent tendencies, yet the data indicates limited evidence for the former and medium confidence for the latter, leaving the likelihood of one horse dictating from the front. The key question is whether any of the numerous late closers, including the selection, can bridge the expected gap on this soft surface where stamina will be at a premium.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Thunder Roar KTB Selection69/100
Thunder Roar arrives with a KTB Fit rating of 69 and is the selection. A 7-year-old with two wins from three starts at Ayr, he has shown he handles the track well and boasts four wins from 14 starts on soft ground. The trainer has a 40% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 2.88, while the jockey posts a 22% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.24. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in what is expected to be a steadily run affair. His recent form of -70008 needs improving upon but the course record and trainer/jockey combination at Ayr make him the one to beat.
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2Hawksbill63/100
Hawksbill is rated 63 on KTB Fit and holds strong claims on his trainer and jockey figures at the track. The 4-year-old has a trainer with a 15% strike rate at Ayr and an A/E of 1.1, while the jockey has a 23% strike rate here with an A/E of 2.04. He usually races held up and produces his effort late. However he has only had one run on soft ground without placing and has no course form on record. His recent form reads 607574 and he will need to improve to trouble the selection, though the Ayr-specific trainer and jockey reads are positive.
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3English Oak62/100
English Oak is next on the KTB Fit list with a mark of 62. The 6-year-old has a jockey with a 25% strike rate at Ayr and an A/E of 1.25, though the trainer is 0 from 1 at the track. He has one win from four starts on soft ground with two places and usually races held up, though with medium confidence in that assessment. There is no course form on record. Recent form of 160206 shows flashes of ability but he steps into this company needing to find more if he is to feature at the business end.
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4Northern Express59/100
Northern Express carries a KTB Fit of 59 and steps up in class. An 8-year-old with one win from four starts at Ayr, he has also shown he handles soft ground with one win from six starts and three places. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.8, while the jockey posts 14% with an A/E of 0.97. Usually held up with medium confidence, he will be aiming to come from off the pace. His recent form of 355135 suggests he remains competitive at a lower level but this represents a stiffer task.
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5Theoryofeverything59/100
Theoryofeverything also rates 59 on KTB Fit and steps up in class. The 6-year-old has a strong course record with two wins from four starts at Ayr and has four wins from 13 starts on soft ground with six places. The trainer has a 15% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 0.91 and the jockey 14% with an A/E of 0.96. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be looking to produce his effort late. Recent form of 545817 includes a win and he could be suited by the expected steady pace.
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6Spoken Truth59/100
Spoken Truth has a KTB Fit of 59. Usually held up with high confidence, he has two wins from three starts on soft ground. The trainer and jockey both have solid Ayr records but there is no course form on record. Recent form reads 326431.
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7That's Amore59/100
That's Amore rates 59 on KTB Fit and tends to make the running or race prominently, though with limited evidence and low confidence. The trainer and jockey both have strong Ayr figures. He has had one run on soft without placing and has no course form. Recent form is /4-160.
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8McMurray59/100
McMurray is rated 59. A 3-year-old with progressive recent form of 2111-1, he is usually held up with high confidence. There are no runs on soft ground so he is unproven on the going and he has no course form. The trainer has a 15% strike rate at Ayr.
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9Pure Legend56/100
Pure Legend has a KTB Fit of 56. Usually held up with limited evidence and low confidence, he is unproven on soft ground. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 0.77 and there is no course form on record. Recent form is -44160.
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10Lattam51/100
Lattam rates 51 on KTB Fit. Usually held up with medium confidence, he has placed three times from eight starts on soft ground without winning. The trainer has a 15% strike rate at Ayr but the jockey is 4% with a low A/E. No course form on record and recent form is 52/07-.
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11Rainbow Nebula50/100
Rainbow Nebula is rated 50 and steps up in class. Usually held up with high confidence, he has had one run on soft without placing and has no course form. The trainer has a 14% strike rate at Ayr with a strong A/E but the jockey is 4% with a low A/E. Recent form is 565003.
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12Naepoint48/100
Naepoint has a KTB Fit of 48 and steps up in class. Typically settles in midfield with medium confidence and has one win from three starts on soft with two places. He ran once at Ayr finishing 13th. The trainer has a 14% strike rate at the track but the jockey is 3% with a low A/E. Recent form is /060-6.
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13Salam Dubawi46/100
Salam Dubawi rates 46 on KTB Fit and tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence. He has been placed once from one run at Ayr, finishing third. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at the track and he has had one run on soft without placing. Recent form is 03D400.
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14Naval Light43/100
Naval Light is rated 43 on KTB Fit and steps up in class. Usually held up with high confidence, he is unproven on soft ground with no runs on the surface. The trainer has a 13% strike rate at Ayr and there is no course form. Recent form is 381173.
KTB verdict
Thunder Roar is the KTB Selection. He boasts a strong course record at Ayr with two wins from three starts and handles soft ground well with four wins from 14 attempts. The trainer's excellent 40% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 2.88 combined with the jockey's solid Ayr figures make him hard to oppose, especially from a decent draw. His held-up run style should see him ideally placed if the expected uncontested lead sets up a race where the leader is hard to peg back. The main dangers are Theoryofeverything, who has a fine Ayr record and proven soft-ground form, and Northern Express, who also has course success and can handle the conditions.
KTB Selection Thunder Roar
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 19 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Thunder Roar | 6/1 | William Hill |
| Hawksbill | 8/1 | BetMGM |
| English Oak | 12/1 | 7Bet |
| Northern Express | 18/1 | BetMGM |
| Theoryofeverything | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Spoken Truth | 5/1 | 7Bet |
| That's Amore | 12/1 | 7Bet |
| McMurray | 4/1 | William Hill |
| Pure Legend | 25/1 | 7Bet |
| Lattam | 25/1 | 7Bet |
| Rainbow Nebula | 18/1 | Bet Victor |
| Naepoint | 66/1 | Bet Victor |
| Salam Dubawi | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Naval Light | 20/1 | Bet Victor |
This is the narrative read of the 1:20 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ayr results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best course record at Ayr?
Thunder Roar has won here with two wins from three starts. Theoryofeverything also has two wins from four starts at the track.
How many horses are proven on soft ground?
Thunder Roar has four wins from 14 on soft, English Oak one win from four, Northern Express one win from six, Theoryofeverything four wins from 13, Spoken Truth two wins from three, Naepoint one win from three, and Lattam has placed three times from eight on soft.
Who is most likely to set the pace?
That's Amore tends to make the running or race on the pace, while Salam Dubawi also tends to make the running or race on the pace. The pace shape indicates a lone leader with high confidence of an uncontested lead.
Which trainers have the strongest Ayr strike rates among the principals?
Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood have a 40% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 2.88 for Thunder Roar. Richard Spencer has 15% with an A/E of 1.1 for Hawksbill.
Which jockeys have the best Ayr records in this field?
Oisin Murphy has a 31% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.54, James Doyle 25% with an A/E of 1.25, and George Wood 23% with an A/E of 2.04.
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