3:40 Ayr
The 2026 Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup is a competitive Class 2 Heritage Handicap over six furlongs on soft ground at Ayr, featuring a maximum field of 25 runners. KTB's Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with the selection Spycatcher heading the list on 65/100 ahead of Run Boy Run (63), Binhareer (62), Volterra (60) and Tuco Salamanca (58). The race is notable for the strength of the pace expected and the fact that several smart performers are dropping in class while trying the venue or the ground for the first time.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners declared, the pace shape is strong and the confidence level is high that it will be on the fast side early. Several prominent runners and front-runners including Stratusnine, Candy and Flash Harry are likely to go forward from their various stalls, while the majority of the field are hold-up types. This strong early pace could collapse in the closing stages on soft ground, which would play into the hands of those coming from off the pace. The key question is whether the prominent horses can get away with it or whether the hold-up brigade will be able to pick up the pieces late.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Spycatcher KTB Selection65/100
Spycatcher is a smart performer who has won eight times at this trip and handles soft ground well with two wins and seven places from ten starts. Recent form has been patchy though and the yard's modest strike rate at Ayr adds a note of caution. First run here today. The eight-year-old is held up, usually producing his effort late, which could be ideal given the expected strong pace. Trainer K R Burke has a 13% strike rate at Ayr from 620 runs while jockey Clifford Lee operates at 14% from 228 rides here. Dropping in class from a middle draw of five, he is the KTB Selection on a Fit Score of 65.
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2Run Boy Run63/100
Run Boy Run is a useful performer who has won both starts at this track and on soft ground. Recent form is patchy but the course record and going statistics are solid positives. First-time headgear is now tried. The five-year-old is held up and produces his effort late, fitting the profile that could be favoured if the strong pace collapses. Trainer Richard Spencer has a 15% strike rate at Ayr from 47 runs and jockey George Wood boasts a 23% strike rate from just 13 rides. Drawn wide in stall 23, he arrives with a KTB Fit Score of 63.
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3Binhareer62/100
Binhareer is a useful performer who has won over this trip and on soft ground. He has already scored at Ayr from just two visits and lines up from a handy draw in stall two. Trainer and jockey both hold strong records at the track. The four-year-old is held up, usually producing his effort late, which aligns with the race shape that may suit those coming from off the pace. William Haggas posts a 26% strike rate at Ayr from 130 runs while Tom Marquand is 22% from 27 rides. Dropping in class, he earns a KTB Fit Score of 62.
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4Volterra60/100
Volterra is a smart performer who has finished placed on both starts this season and showed useful form when third over course and distance last year. He drops back to 6f for the first time today after a recent 7f run, which asks a fresh question. Trainer Kevin Ryan has a 10% strike rate at Ayr from 866 runs while jockey Kevin Stott records 14% from 267 rides here. The five-year-old is usually held up, though with medium confidence in that run-style. He has won once from two starts on soft and was placed on his only previous course visit. KTB rates him at a Fit Score of 60 while dropping in class from draw nine.
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5Tuco Salamanca58/100
Tuco Salamanca is a smart performer who has won four times over this trip from 12 attempts and looks well suited by the step back up from 5f. He has won on soft ground and holds solid recent form including a win last time out. Trainer Ollie Sangster strikes at 17% here while the jockey is still seeking a first Ayr winner from five rides. The four-year-old is held up and usually produces his effort late with high confidence. He lines up from draw 12 with a KTB Fit Score of 58 and no previous course form on record.
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6Aramram57/100
Aramram is a smart performer who has run well here before, finishing second on his latest visit to Ayr. He has winning form on soft ground and at this trip, though his recent efforts have been patchy and the wide draw in stall 18 is far from ideal. Trainer's modest strike rate at the track adds a note of caution while he is held up with high confidence.
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7Dance In The Storm57/100
Dance In The Storm is a useful performer who arrives in solid form having won twice and placed once from his last four starts. He has never tackled soft ground so that is an unknown today, while this is also his first visit to Ayr. Stall eight is no help on a track that often favours lower draws in big-field sprints and he is held up with high confidence.
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8Wiltshire56/100
Wiltshire is a useful performer who has won four times over this trip from 14 starts and arrives in decent form having landed a race earlier this season. He has shown he can be competitive on soft ground with a placed effort from four runs though he has been below his best on his last couple of starts. Haggas has a solid 26% strike rate at Ayr while this is the horse's first run at the track and he is held up with high confidence.
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9Fine Interview55/100
Fine Interview is a useful performer with a solid record on soft ground, recording five wins from nine starts and seven places overall. He has won six times at this trip from 14 attempts and arrives in decent form having won one of his last three starts. The trainer has only a single run at Ayr so that is too small a sample to judge while the jockey has a strong 25% strike rate here from 28 rides and he is held up with high confidence.
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10Stratusnine55/100
Stratusnine is a useful performer who won this race last year from a single visit to Ayr and has placed on soft ground. He has three wins over today's trip from 13 attempts but his recent form has been patchy and he now steps back into Class 2 company. He tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence and the trainer and jockey both hold modest strike rates at the track.
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11Rock On Thunder55/100
Rock On Thunder is a useful performer who has won over this trip but arrives in modest recent form having been well beaten on his last three starts. First time at Ayr and unproven on soft ground both add unknowns at this level. He is held up with medium confidence, the trainer has a solid 10% strike rate here from a large sample while the jockey has no prior course experience.
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12Pellitory54/100
Pellitory is a useful performer who has been in and out of form this year but showed his best when winning a 7f handicap at York in August. He drops back to 6f for the first time in a while having failed to land a blow at the trip on his three previous attempts, while first-time headgear is now added. Trainer and jockey both operate at a solid 15% strike rate here and he is held up with high confidence.
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13Two Tribes53/100
Two Tribes is a useful performer who has run well at this track once before when finishing second. He drops back to his winning trip today having been out of form over longer distances recently. Trainer does well enough at Ayr but the jockey's modest record here is a slight negative on soft ground where this horse is yet to place and he is held up with high confidence.
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14Candy53/100
Candy is a useful performer with a rock-solid record at this track, having won both starts here. She handles soft ground well and has won four times at today's trip, though her recent form has been poor and she now tries first-time headgear. The trainer holds a solid record at Ayr while the jockey's strike-rate at the course is low and she tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence.
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15Evening Saigon52/100
Evening Saigon is a useful performer who has won three times over this trip including a recent success. She handles soft ground well with a win from a single start on it and looks open to a bit more improvement. First time at Ayr for both horse and trainer while the jockey has no previous course experience and she usually races handily, on or close to the lead with medium confidence.
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16Flash Harry51/100
Flash Harry is a useful performer who has won three times over this trip. He showed his best form when winning at Goodwood last time but was well held on his only previous visit here. The yard and jockey both have solid records at Ayr while he has won on soft ground and tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence.
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17Twilight Calls49/100
Twilight Calls is a useful performer who arrives in strong form having won three of his last five starts. He has no great record on soft ground or at this track and is drawn widest of all in stall 19. Trainer and jockey both have solid strike rates here and he is held up with high confidence.
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18Fandom49/100
Fandom is a useful performer who has been consistent enough through a busy recent spell without winning. He has already scored at this trip and holds a solid draw, yet his only soft-ground run brought no reward and the yard's modest record here adds a note of caution. First time at Ayr and the jockey also has no prior course experience while he typically settles in midfield.
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19Ardisia49/100
Ardisia is a useful performer who has won over this trip and on soft ground. She has a solid course record with one win from one run at Ayr and her recent form of 463042 shows consistent effort at this level. The trainer has an 11% strike rate from 71 runs here while the jockey is operating at 4% from 26 rides and she is held up with high confidence.
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20Red Spells Danger47/100
Red Spells Danger is a useful performer on his figures who has won three times at this trip. He has run well at Ayr before and the yard plus jockey both have solid records at the track. Soft ground remains a question as he has only tried it once without success while he typically settles in midfield with medium confidence.
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21Bodhi Bear45/100
Bodhi Bear is a useful performer on his day with a win at this trip from eight attempts. He has been below form on his only previous run at Ayr and on soft ground, while the first-time headgear is an unknown. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at the track and he is held up with high confidence.
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22Fahrenheit Seven44/100
Fahrenheit Seven is a useful performer on his day but has been out of form for a while and finished 19th when he tried this track. He acts on soft ground and has won three times at this trip yet the yard's modest record here and his own recent efforts suggest he will need to bounce back sharply. Oliver Stammers improves the picture slightly with a solid strike rate at Ayr and he is held up with high confidence.
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23Far Above Dream44/100
Far Above Dream is a useful performer who has won five times over this trip from 12 starts and arrives in solid recent form. He has not fired on his only previous run at Ayr and holds a modest record on soft ground from just two attempts. Jason Hart's solid 14% strike-rate at the track offers some encouragement while he is held up with high confidence.
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24Caburn43/100
Caburn is a useful performer who has won twice at this trip from ten attempts and brings solid recent form figures into the race. First time at Ayr and no experience on soft ground both count as unknowns rather than weaknesses. Trainer holds an 8% strike rate from 25 runs at the track while the jockey has had too few rides here to form any reliable view and he is held up with medium confidence.
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25Hammer The Hammer43/100
Hammer The Hammer is a useful performer who has shown enough at this track to suggest he can be competitive from a wide draw. Two placed efforts from nine starts at this trip are a plus but his recent form is poor and he has only run once on soft ground. The yard and jockey both have solid records here though neither is setting the track alight while he typically settles in midfield with medium confidence.
KTB verdict
Spycatcher is the KTB Selection. He remains a smart performer with an excellent record at this trip and on soft ground, and his hold-up style looks well suited to the strong pace that is anticipated. The drop in class is another plus, though his recent form has been patchy and the yard's modest record at Ayr is a slight negative. Main dangers are likely to come from Run Boy Run, who boasts a perfect record at the track and on the ground, Binhareer with his course win and strong trainer-jockey combination from a good draw, and Volterra who showed useful form when third over course and distance last year. Tuco Salamanca also enters calculations having won last time out and with a good record at the trip.
KTB Selection Spycatcher
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:16 UTC, 19 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Spycatcher | 33/1 | William Hill |
| Run Boy Run | 22/1 | William Hill |
| Binhareer | 4/1 | 7Bet |
| Volterra | 18/1 | William Hill |
| Tuco Salamanca | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Aramram | 40/1 | William Hill |
| Dance In The Storm | 7/1 | BetMGM |
| Wiltshire | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Fine Interview | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Stratusnine | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| Rock On Thunder | 80/1 | William Hill |
| Pellitory | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Two Tribes | 18/1 | William Hill |
| Candy | 20/1 | William Hill |
| Evening Saigon | 30/1 | 7Bet |
| Flash Harry | 33/1 | William Hill |
| Twilight Calls | 10/1 | William Hill |
| Fandom | 80/1 | 7Bet |
| Ardisia | 22/1 | William Hill |
| Red Spells Danger | 22/1 | William Hill |
| Bodhi Bear | 50/1 | William Hill |
| Fahrenheit Seven | 150/1 | 7Bet |
| Far Above Dream | 7/1 | William Hill |
| Caburn | 28/1 | William Hill |
| Hammer The Hammer | 28/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 3:40 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ayr results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the KTB Selection and what is its Fit Score?
Spycatcher with a KTB Fit Score of 65/100.
What is the expected pace shape and how might it affect the race?
Strong pace likely with high confidence, two or more habitual front-runners, which could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which horses are noted as having won at Ayr previously?
Run Boy Run (won both starts here), Binhareer (won from two visits), Stratusnine (won this race last year), Candy (won both starts here) and Ardisia (one win from one run).
Which principals are dropping in class?
Spycatcher, Binhareer and Volterra.
How many runners are held up according to their run-style?
The majority of the field, including all five principals, are described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
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