3:09 Ffos Las
A Class 6 handicap over six furlongs on heavy ground at Ffos Las features a field of eight modest performers where recent form and course knowledge will be at a premium. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Happier heading the numbers on 60, just ahead of Son of Astar on 58, Connie's Rose on 54 and Up The Anti on 51. With the official ratings reflecting limited ability across the board, the race is likely to be decided by which horse handles the testing surface best and can capitalise on the shape of the contest.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to Connie's Rose taking up the running from her wide draw with little to challenge her early on. The remainder of the field are predominantly held-up types who will be looking to produce their efforts from off the pace. This uncontested lead could prove difficult for the closers to overcome on heavy ground, making the key question whether any horse can bridge the gap in the closing stages or whether the leader will prove hard to peg back.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Happier KTB Selection60/100
Happier arrives in solid nick with a recent record of 611241 that includes two wins from his last six starts. A modest performer, he has already won on this track from a single visit and has shown he can be competitive on heavy ground, though he is yet to score on it. The trip looks fine and the yard know the place well, with the trainer holding a 15% strike rate at Ffos Las from 74 runs for an A/E of 1.14. Toby Moore takes the ride but has no record at the course. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 7 and should be coming home strongly if the uncontested leader sets a strong pace.
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2Son of Astar58/100
Son of Astar is a limited class performer who has won twice at this track from four runs and also has a win on heavy ground from just two attempts. He steps up from 5f to 6f today having been placed once in six runs at the trip without winning. Trainer and jockey both hold solid records at Ffos Las, with Tony Carroll on 12% from 150 runs for an A/E of 0.94 and David Probert on 20% from 265 rides for an A/E of 1.06, though their combined record reads 33/424 (8%) with an A/E of 0.72. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he is drawn in stall 5 and his recent form of 602071 suggests he is capable of a bold show.
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3Connie's Rose54/100
Connie's Rose is a modest performer who has been consistent without winning lately, finishing in the first four in all six starts this year. She steps up from 5f to a trip she has won over before while her record on heavy ground reads a solid one win and three places from five runs. Dropping in class should suit and she tends to make the running or race on the pace, which aligns perfectly with the lone-leader pace shape and could see her dictate terms from draw 8. The trainer's 9% strike rate at the course from 164 runs for an A/E of 0.85 is matched by Oisin Murphy's stronger 22% record here from 125 rides for an A/E of 0.87, though their partnership shows 1/15 (7%) with an A/E of 0.40. Her recent form of 444333 underlines her reliability.
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4Up The Anti51/100
Up The Anti is a limited class performer who has been largely out of form this year and was pulled up last time. He has placed on heavy ground and showed some promise when second over course and distance on his only visit here. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Ffos Las, with Tony Carroll on 12% from 150 runs for an A/E of 0.94 and Saffie Osborne on 16% from 62 rides for an A/E of 0.87, though their partnership reads 1/14 (7%) with an A/E of 0.55. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence from stall 1, he could be ideally placed to strike if the leader falters, despite his recent form of 4648P9.
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5Manhattan Mirage49/100
Manhattan Mirage is a modest performer who has shown little spark in two runs this year and now tries headgear for the first time. He has placed once from two starts at this track and is proven at the trip, though he drops back from 7½f today, while remaining unproven on heavy ground. The trainer and jockey both have modest records at Ffos Las.
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6Counting Cards47/100
Counting Cards is a modest performer who has been well below form this year and finished eighth of nine when he ran here over a mile on his only previous visit. Dropping back to 6f is a positive as he has placed at the trip before, though he is unproven on heavy ground and now tries headgear for the first time. The trainer has a modest record at the track which is offset by the jockey's solid 17% strike rate here.
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7Bama Lama46/100
Bama Lama is a limited horse who has been out of form for some time with three modest efforts this year. He has won over this trip before and handles heavy ground, plus he has a solid record at Ffos Las including a victory here. Both trainer and jockey have established records at the track though neither is flying at present.
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8Call Time40/100
Call Time is a limited horse who has been a regular at this track and knows his way around Ffos Las well, finishing second four times and third once from five runs. He acts on heavy ground, having been placed on it three times from five starts, though he is stepping up from 5f to 6f today for the first time in a while and has only placed without winning at the longer trip. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate from 57 runs here adds a note of caution.
KTB verdict
Happier is the KTB Selection and sets a strong standard with his solid recent record that features two wins from his last six starts. He has already won on this track from a single visit, shown he can be competitive on heavy ground, and is with a yard that knows the place well. The held-up run style should see him well placed to challenge an uncontested leader in the latter stages on this surface. His main dangers are Son of Astar, who has won twice here and on heavy ground, and Connie's Rose, who is likely to set the pace and has a strong recent consistency record, while Up The Anti cannot be entirely ruled out given his course and distance placing.
KTB Selection Happier
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 21 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Happier | 7/4 | William Hill |
| Son of Astar | 7/2 | 7Bet |
| Connie's Rose | 7/2 | Bet365 |
| Up The Anti | 11/1 | BetMGM |
| Manhattan Mirage | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Counting Cards | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Bama Lama | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Call Time | 9/2 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 3:09 Ffos Las. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ffos Las racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ffos Las results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Connie's Rose, as the only front-runner in the field who tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many wins has Happier recorded at Ffos Las?
One win from one visit.
What is Son of Astar's record on heavy ground?
One win from two starts, with one placed.
Which runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Manhattan Mirage and Counting Cards.
How many times has Call Time been placed at Ffos Las without winning?
Five times, with four seconds and one third.
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