4:07 Redcar
This Class 4 Weatherbys & Birdie Calendars Handicap over 1m2f1y at Redcar on good to firm ground features a field of 12 three-year-olds and older horses. The KTB Fit scores range from 68 down to 37, highlighting a competitive but spread-out contest where the top five principals stand out on recent consistency and course-trainer stats. With a strong pace shape indicated by multiple front-runners, the race is set up to test stamina late on and reward those who can time their runs effectively from off the pace.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is strong with high confidence, driven by two or more habitual front-runners including Percy's Daydream and Poet's Dawn who tend to make the running or race prominently. This is likely to set up a contested lead that could collapse in the closing stages, favouring the cluster of hold-up performers who can produce their efforts late. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate terms and hold on, or if the race will fall to one of the patient hold-up types coming from the rear as the leaders tire.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Domination KTB Selection68/100
Domination is a fair performer who has been consistent this year with form figures of 14133. He drops back from 1m4f to a trip he has won over already and acts well on good to firm, where he is 1 from 2. The colt is held up and usually produces his effort late with high confidence in that run-style. Trainer Harriet Bethell has a 33% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 2.23 from 12 runs, while the jockey combination shows an 8/24 (33%) record with an A/E of 1.99 and +£13.35 LSP. This is his first visit to the track but that carries no negative given the yard's strong record here.
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2Ciao Capo62/100
Ciao Capo is a modest performer who has won three of his last six starts including two at this trip. He steps up in class but holds a solid record on good to firm ground with three wins from four runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, the colt has no course form on record but the yard posts a 17% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.21 from 24 runs. The jockey shows a 19% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.16 from 111 rides, while the trainer and jockey combination is 22/141 (16%) with an A/E of 1.04 and -£29.16 LSP.
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3Percy's Daydream61/100
Percy's Daydream is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately, finishing second of 10 here on his only previous visit to Redcar. He acts on good to firm with three wins from seven starts on the surface and has scored three times from eight runs at this trip. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence, he is drawn in stall 10. The David O'Meara yard posts a 15% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.04 from 777 runs, while Kevin Stott is 14% at the track with an A/E of 0.9 from 270 rides. The trainer and jockey combination is 4/35 (11%) with an A/E of 0.54 and -£11.17 LSP.
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4Rizal61/100
Rizal is a fair performer with solid recent form including two wins this year from figures of 6-3114. He drops back from 1m4f to a trip he has won over before and holds a strong record on good to firm ground with two wins from three starts. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, this is his first visit to Redcar. The yard fires at a 26% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.18 from 35 runs, though the jockey is 4% here with an A/E of 0.47 from 24 rides. The trainer and jockey combination reads 42/265 (16%) with an A/E of 1.14 and -£61.78 LSP.
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5Everyoneknowsadave57/100
Everyoneknowsadave is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning often, with form of 321428. He has a win on good to firm from three starts and has scored at today's trip, but the wide draw in stall 12 is a clear negative from the highest stall. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, the yard is operating at a 0% strike rate from 24 runs at Redcar. The jockey shows a 50% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.9 from just 4 rides, while the trainer and jockey combination is 1/5 (20%).
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6Night Wolf52/100
Night Wolf is a fair 3-year-old who showed promise when third over C&D on debut but has looked limited in two starts this year. He steps up in trip having failed to land a blow at this distance last time, and the wide draw in stall 11 adds to the task while the trainer holds an 11% strike rate from 45 runs at Redcar.
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7Borjina51/100
Borjina is a modest performer who has shown fair form on her day, including a win and two placed efforts from six starts. She ran respectably when fifth over a mile here last time but now steps up in trip for the first time, which asks a fresh question, though the yard has a solid 25% strike rate at Redcar from 100 runs.
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8Saxophonist49/100
Saxophonist is a modest performer who has been consistent without winning, finishing in the first three in five of his eight starts including two placings at this trip. He has handled good to firm ground okay without winning on it while stepping up in class, and the yard has a solid 15% strike rate at Redcar from a large sample.
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9Optician47/100
Optician is a modest performer who has run five times here without winning yet has been placed on three of his last four starts at this trip. Consistent on good to firm ground and showed his best effort of the season when second at this track on his penultimate run, though the trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Redcar is a negative.
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10Poet's Dawn46/100
Poet's Dawn is a modest 11-year-old with a solid recent record of three wins from his last six starts yet he has never won in seven runs at Redcar. He has placed here with a 2-8 record on good to firm ground while stepping up in class, and the yard posts an 8% strike rate from over 2,300 runs at the track.
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11His Finest Hour45/100
His Finest Hour is a modest performer who has shown some consistency this year with placed efforts at this trip on good to firm. He has won once from three runs on this ground and two from ten at the distance overall, though the trainer records a 6% strike rate from 125 runs at Redcar.
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12Mayflower Billy37/100
Mayflower Billy is a modest performer whose recent form has been ordinary at best. He drops back in trip today having failed to make the frame in two runs at this distance and looked stretched by the extra yardage last time, while the trainer has a 0% strike rate from 24 runs at Redcar.
KTB verdict
The strong pace should play into the hands of hold-up performers, and Domination is the KTB Selection. A fair performer with consistent form figures of 14133, he drops to a trip he has won over and boasts a strong record on good to firm while the trainer holds a 33% strike rate at Redcar. His late-run style is ideally suited to the shape of the race. The main dangers are Ciao Capo, who has won three of his last six including two at this trip and has a fine record on the ground, and Percy's Daydream, who has course placings and can make the running to test the field from the front. Rizal and Everyoneknowsadave are next in the Fit order and cannot be dismissed if the race sets up as expected.
KTB Selection Domination
This is the narrative read of the 4:07 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is favoured by the strong pace shape?
Hold-up horses are favoured as the strong pace from two or more front-runners could collapse late.
How many wins has Ciao Capo recorded on good to firm ground?
Three wins from four starts on good to firm.
What is Harriet Bethell's strike rate at Redcar?
33% strike rate at Redcar from 12 runs with an A/E of 2.23.
Has Percy's Daydream placed at this course before?
Yes, he finished second of 10 here on his only previous visit to Redcar.
What trip has Domination previously won over?
He has won over today's trip of 1m2f1y.
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