7:00 Wolverhampton (AW)
This Class 6 handicap over 1m5f219y at Wolverhampton on standard ground brings together a field of ten limited performers, none of whom have been setting the world alight lately. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Trojan Truth, Baileys Warrior and Billingsgate Gold all rated around the 50 mark, underlining how little separates the principals on current form and course knowledge. With the race run on the all-weather and featuring several runners stepping up markedly in trip, the contest looks likely to hinge on which horse can best handle the stamina test while navigating the tight Wolverhampton track.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for those coming from off the pace to reel in. Bigz Belief is the only confirmed front-runner in the field and is expected to take up that role from draw 4, while most of the others, including the selection Trojan Truth, prefer to be held up and produce their effort late. This sets up a race where the key question will be whether the leader can dictate terms throughout or if the closers, aided by the tight nature of the track, can close the gap in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Trojan Truth KTB Selection51/100
Trojan Truth is a limited performer who has been running to his level without winning for some time. He has won once here from ten runs and holds a solid 1-from-10 record on standard going, though he steps up in trip today having failed to make the frame in three previous attempts at this distance. The yard's 10% strike rate at Wolverhampton from a big sample gives no particular edge, and the trainer-jockey combination shows 5/77 (6%) with an A/E of 0.67. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 3, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the uncontested leader may be hard to catch.
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2Baileys Warrior50/100
Baileys Warrior is a limited class performer who has been placed twice from his last three starts and knows his way around this track having won here from 24 runs. He steps up in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance in the past. The trainer has a solid 15% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 141 runs, while the jockey is 0-5 at the course, and their combined record reads 9/82 (11%) with an A/E of 0.84. Typically settling in midfield from draw 10, he has a 2-from-28 record on standard going and will need to find a way to bridge the gap to the likely lone leader.
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3Billingsgate Gold50/100
Billingsgate Gold is a limited horse who has shown very little in five runs to date and now steps up markedly in trip in first-time headgear. The yard has a solid 15% strike rate at Wolverhampton from a big sample, though the horse has no course form on record and just one run on standard ground without placing. Their trainer-jockey partnership stands at 130/879 (15%) with an A/E of 0.98. Usually held up and producing effort late from stall 1, which could prove handy on this tight track, he remains modest on the bare form and has recent figures of 06067.
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4Lednikov42/100
Lednikov is a limited performer who has been placed once in five starts at Wolverhampton without winning. He stays the trip well enough having scored at this distance and has a solid record on standard going with 5 wins from 29 starts. The yard's modest 10% strike rate here from a large sample offers no particular edge, and the trainer-jockey record is 30/421 (7%) with an A/E of 0.81. Usually held up from draw 2 with medium confidence, his recent form reads 557435 and course efforts include a second placing among eight runs here.
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5Dijon Gone40/100
Dijon Gone is a limited performer who has shown little in eight starts and looks up against it from a modest ratings base. He steps up markedly in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question, while the yard’s 14% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 205 runs offers some course encouragement. Their trainer-jockey record stands at 19/180 (11%) with an A/E of 0.98. Typically settling in midfield from draw 6 with medium confidence, he has no course form on record and only one previous start on standard ground, leaving his ability on this surface unknown with form figures of 087626.
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6Wonderful Wendy39/100
Wonderful Wendy is a limited performer who has shown ordinary form in six starts, most recently finishing a modest fourth and sixth here without threatening to win. She steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of her stamina, with the trainer on a 9% strike rate from 220 runs at Wolverhampton.
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7Long Reign39/100
Long Reign is a limited performer who has failed to show much in four starts to date. First-time headgear is now fitted as he steps up markedly in trip for a yard that operates at a 15% strike rate here, though nothing in the bare form suggests he is ready to turn things around while dropping in class.
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8Zafaan38/100
Zafaan is a limited performer who has shown just modest form on this track with an 8th and 4th from two runs here. He drops back from 2m to an untested 1m6f today which asks a fresh question, while his record on standard going is only placed once in eight starts without a win.
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9Bigz Belief36/100
Bigz Belief is a limited handicapper who has been competitive on his last few starts without winning. He has placed once from three runs over today's trip and shown similar form on this track, finishing second on his most recent visit here, and is the one likely to make the running.
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10Late Claim33/100
Late Claim is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and is now 0-19 on the AW. He has placed once in seven runs at Wolverhampton but has been well held on his last three visits here and steps up in trip for the first time today.
KTB verdict
Trojan Truth is named as the KTB Selection. A limited performer who has been running to his level without winning for some time, he brings a course win here from ten runs and a solid record on standard ground, though the step up in trip is a clear concern having failed to make the frame in three previous attempts at the distance. The held-up run-style will need to overcome the likely uncontested lead in a race where the pace shape favours the front-runner. Main dangers are Baileys Warrior, who knows the track well and has been placed recently, and Billingsgate Gold, who receives the benefit of first-time headgear and a good draw in stall 1 despite modest form.
KTB Selection Trojan Truth
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 28 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Trojan Truth | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Baileys Warrior | 10/1 | William Hill |
| Billingsgate Gold | 12/1 | William Hill |
| Lednikov | 15/2 | 7Bet |
| Dijon Gone | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Wonderful Wendy | 9/2 | 7Bet |
| Long Reign | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Zafaan | 9/4 | Bet365 |
| Bigz Belief | 18/1 | 7Bet |
| Late Claim | 22/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 7:00 Wolverhampton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wolverhampton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Wolverhampton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Bigz Belief is the only confirmed front-runner in the field and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many previous attempts at this distance has Trojan Truth made?
Trojan Truth has failed to make the frame in three previous attempts at this distance.
What is the combined trainer-jockey strike rate for the selection Trojan Truth?
The trainer and jockey record for Ed de Giles and Luke Morris is 5/77 (6%) with an A/E of 0.67.
Which runner is wearing first-time headgear?
Billingsgate Gold and Long Reign are both fitted with first-time headgear.
What is Baileys Warrior's record at Wolverhampton?
Baileys Warrior has won here from 24 runs.
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