5:25 Down Royal
The 5:25 at Down Royal is a 17-runner Molson Coors Beverage Handicap over 1m4f194y on good ground. A competitive field mixes three-year-olds with more experienced handicappers, several of whom arrive in modest recent form yet hold course or trip credentials. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Youcansaythatagain heading the numbers on 56, closely followed by Open Secret on 54 and Neptunes Staircase on 52, underlining how little separates the principals on this assessment.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy should pay. With the vast majority of runners, including all five principals, tending to be held up and produce their efforts late, the race is likely to develop into a sprint for the line from around the home turn. The key question is whether the prominent or midfield runners can steal an uncontested advantage or whether the closers will find the gaps in a crowded straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Youcansaythatagain KTB Selection56/100
Youcansaythatagain is a fair 3-year-old who won on his only previous run here at Down Royal. He has shown mixed form since, including a win on good ground, but steps up in trip today for the first time which remains an open question. The trainer and jockey both operate at a modest 8% strike rate at this track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 4 in a race where being handy pays. Recent form figures of 7159 reflect that inconsistency yet the course success remains a strong positive.
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2Open Secret54/100
Open Secret is a fair handicapper who has shown bits of form at this trip without winning. He drops back from 2m3f having been placed once from one run at the shorter distance, while he has also placed twice from five starts on good ground. Trainer Gordon Elliott has a solid 21% strike rate at Down Royal but the jockey has no recorded rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late from stall 15, he brings a respectable handicap profile into what looks a steadily-run affair.
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3Neptunes Staircase52/100
Neptunes Staircase is a fair performer who has been out of form this year with two poor efforts after a long break. First-time headgear is now tried as he steps back up to a trip he has placed at before. Trainer G M Lyons has a solid 15% strike rate at Down Royal while the jockey is operating above expectations here with an A/E of 1.19. The 6-year-old has won on good ground from a single start and is drawn in stall 8, which could prove handy in a tactical race.
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4Rock Of Ireland50/100
Rock Of Ireland is a fair performer who has shown a mixed bag this year with a win and a couple of placed efforts among six runs. He steps up in trip again today having been placed once at this distance without winning, though he has failed to place in five runs on good ground. Trainer Rory Anthony Devine has no previous runners here while the jockey operates at a 7% strike rate from 27 rides at the track. Usually held up from the inside draw in stall 1, he will hope the race develops favourably.
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5Faro Island50/100
Faro Island is a modest performer who won on his only previous visit to Down Royal. He has a solid recent record with two wins from his last six starts yet has failed to place in three runs on good ground. Trainer Oliver has an 8% strike rate here from 203 runs while jockey Whelan fares better with 16% from 129 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late from stall 14, the 4-year-old brings course-winning form into a race where that local knowledge could count.
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6Earthsong49/100
Earthsong is a modest performer who has shown little on good ground in three starts and remains winless at this trip from two attempts. First-time headgear is now applied after a mixed recent run of form that includes one placed effort. Trainer and jockey both hold solid records at Down Royal but the wide draw in stall 17 adds another question mark.
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7Sea Eagle48/100
Sea Eagle is a fair performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts including a last-place finish on his most recent start. He has shown ability on good ground with a win and three places from eight attempts but now drops back in trip to an untried distance which asks a fresh question. The trainer has an 11% strike rate from 37 runs at Down Royal while the jockey has only one ride at the track so far.
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8Rakki48/100
Rakki is a modest performer who has shown some competitiveness on good ground with a placed effort from two starts. He steps up in trip today which poses a fresh question having not been tried over this distance before. The yard holds a 16% strike rate at Down Royal from 239 runs while the jockey is operating at 9% from 100 rides here.
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9Ephesus48/100
Ephesus is a fair handicapper who has been out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He drops back from 2m to a trip he has placed at in the past and acts on good ground having won twice from seven starts on it. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Down Royal from 98 runs while the jockey is a little better on 11% from 63 rides here.
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10Genoah47/100
Genoah is a modest performer whose recent form has been ordinary at best. Trainer and jockey both hold a 14% strike rate at the track from decent sample sizes. Steps up in trip for the first time today while showing no win or place from eight runs on good ground.
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11Nod Of Approval47/100
Nod Of Approval is a modest performer who has been consistent enough to place without winning in 11 starts. Finished second here over further on his only previous visit to Down Royal and has shown he can be competitive on good ground. Drops back from 2m1f today with first-time headgear applied.
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12Michinaga45/100
Michinaga is a fair 3-year-old who has shown little in three starts to date, finishing no better than ninth. He now steps up markedly in trip for the first time while wearing headgear, both of which pose fresh questions. The trainer has only a tiny sample at Down Royal while the jockey's 11% strike rate from 44 rides here is respectable.
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13Neo Smart44/100
Neo Smart is a modest performer with a solid recent record of consistency, finishing second in two of his last three starts. He steps up markedly in trip today having never gone beyond 1m1f, which asks a fresh question of his stamina. The trainer has a strong 24% strike rate at Down Royal from a big sample.
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14Sarangpur44/100
Sarangpur is a modest performer with a solid recent record of 411213 that includes two wins. Steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question while the yard has a 0% strike rate from 15 runs at Down Royal. Jockey is operating at a 6% strike rate from 214 rides here and the horse has shown it handles good ground.
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15Flying Fortress43/100
Flying Fortress is a modest performer who has shown some consistency of late with form figures of 0824 in his last four starts. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question while this is also his first run at Down Royal. The trainer has a solid 11% strike rate here from a big sample but the jockey is still seeking his first winner from 49 rides at the track.
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16Cooley's Mist41/100
Cooley's Mist is a modest performer who has been placed on three of his last six starts and won over today's trip earlier in his career. He has course experience but finished seventh of eight when tried here before, while the yard's modest 4% strike-rate at Down Royal from a big sample is another negative. Drops back from 1m6f to a distance that should suit him on good ground where he has already shown he can win.
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17Pillar Of Hope40/100
Pillar Of Hope is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with recent figures of 804648. He has shown some course familiarity here at Down Royal but has failed to place in two runs and his trainer is currently without a winner from five attempts at the track. The step up to this trip poses a fresh question as he has been unsuccessful in three previous attempts at the distance while his record on good ground is only one win from ten starts.
KTB verdict
Youcansaythatagain is the KTB Selection. A fair 3-year-old who won on his only previous run at Down Royal, he brings course-winning form and a win on good ground into a steadily-run handicap where his held-up style should be suited if the gaps appear. The step up in trip is the main unknown, yet the balance of his profile and local knowledge make him the one to beat. Main dangers are Open Secret, who drops back having shown form at the trip and enjoys the services of a yard with a strong 21% strike rate here, and Neptunes Staircase, who tries first-time headgear at a suitable distance for a trainer and jockey combination operating above expectations at the track.
KTB Selection Youcansaythatagain
This is the narrative read of the 5:25 Down Royal. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Down Royal racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Down Royal results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-winning form at Down Royal?
Youcansaythatagain won on his only previous run here and Faro Island also won on his only previous visit.
How many of the principals are usually held up?
All five principals are described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
Which runner is trying first-time headgear?
Neptunes Staircase, Earthsong and Nod Of Approval are all trying first-time headgear.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Down Royal among those with significant sample sizes?
J S Bolger has a 24% strike rate at Down Royal from 183 runs.
Which 3-year-old has already placed at the course?
Nod Of Approval finished second here over further on his only previous visit to Down Royal.
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