5:37 Bath
This Class 5 handicap division at Bath over 5f 160y on good to firm ground features a field of nine where the KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top. The principals sit between 61 and 53, suggesting a competitive race in which course knowledge, draw and proven ability at the trip will carry significant weight. With the pace shape pointing to a lone leader enjoying an uncontested advantage, the race is likely to hinge on whether that front-runner can dictate terms or if the held-up types can bridge the gap in the closing stages.
How the race shapes up
The pace map indicates a lone leader with high confidence and little to challenge it early, which should allow an uncontested lead that is often difficult for closers to overcome over this trip. Level Up is the only confirmed front-runner in the line-up and therefore looks set to take up that role from stall nine, while the remainder of the field, headed by Charlie Boyo, HK Fourteen, Army Bugler and several others, are all held-up or midfield types. The key question is whether the uncontested leader can maintain the advantage all the way to the line or if the late runners, aided by the good to firm surface that favours speed, can reel him in late.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Charlie Boyo KTB Selection61/100
Charlie Boyo arrives with a KTB Fit of 61 and is the selection. A fair performer, he has shown his best form over this trip, winning once from four attempts and finishing second on his most recent start. He has already won on good to firm ground and holds a solid course connection through Clive Cox's 18% strike rate at Bath from 477 runs. Stall one could prove an advantage if he breaks sharply enough from his usual held-up position, though the run-style is taken with medium confidence. Rossa Ryan takes the ride on a trainer-jockey combination that has recorded a 17% strike rate from 344 runs together.
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2HK Fourteen59/100
HK Fourteen is rated just behind on a KTB Fit of 59. This modest performer has won both starts at this track and also possesses a solid record at today's trip. Recent form has been ordinary, yet he has placed four times from eight runs on good to firm ground and the yard's Bath record is respectable with an 11% strike rate and A/E of 1.01 from 877 runs. Jack Doughty, who has a 15% strike rate at the track from 89 rides, takes the mount on a horse that usually produces its effort late from a held-up position with high confidence.
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3Army Bugler58/100
Army Bugler carries a KTB Fit of 58. A modest performer, he has shown consistent placed form at this trip, finishing second in both runs over it. He also has course experience here, having been placed on his only visit to Bath, and the going looks suitable with one win from three starts on good to firm. Warren Greatrex holds a solid 14% strike rate at the track from 21 runs while Rob Hornby operates at a 9% strike rate from 304 rides at Bath. Like most of his rivals he is usually held up and produces his effort late, a trait taken with high confidence.
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4Level Up53/100
Level Up is next in on a KTB Fit of 53 and looks sure to make the running. This modest performer has a solid placed record at Bath, though without a win in three runs here, recording a third, second and second. He has won three times on good to firm and the yard's modest 9% strike rate at the track from 748 runs is backed by a large sample. Pat Dobbs improves matters with a 16% strike rate from 344 rides at Bath, while the step up to this trip remains an unknown for a horse that tends to make the running or race prominently with high confidence.
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5Guilty Verdict53/100
Guilty Verdict is a modest performer who has shown some ability in three runs, finishing third on his most recent start over this trip. Lightly raced and not fully exposed, he is dropping in class with both trainer and jockey holding solid 16% strike rates at Bath, though he remains unproven on good to firm ground.
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6Moe's Legacy51/100
Moe's Legacy is a modest performer with a solid course record here, having won three of his 15 starts at Bath. He steps up in trip today having won five times over this distance in the past, and his recent form shows consistent placings without winning. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from five runs at the track while the jockey's 15% record from 131 rides is more positive on good to firm ground where the horse has three wins from 12 starts.
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7Monsieur Patat50/100
Monsieur Patat is a modest performer with a solid recent record of placed efforts and a win at today's trip from 27 attempts. He has handled good to firm ground in the past though his record on it is only ordinary. Both trainer and jockey have established records at Bath that sit around the course average.
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8Savannah Smiles46/100
Savannah Smiles is a modest performer who has won once from 11 starts at Bath and holds a solid record on good to firm ground with two wins and three places from eight runs. She steps up in trip today having last run over 5f yet has won five times at this distance in the past. The trainer holds a 9% strike rate from 311 runs here while the jockey is 12% from 41 rides at the track.
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9Nuevo Slovo41/100
Nuevo Slovo is a modest performer who has failed to place in nine starts and shown no improvement in three runs on good to firm ground. He has been beaten at this trip four times already and now tries first-time headgear. The trainer has yet to record a winner from six runs at Bath while the jockey operates at a solid 15% strike rate here.
KTB verdict
The pace shape favours the lone leader, but with Level Up the only confirmed front-runner the race could still fall to one of the held-up types if the leader overdoes things or fails to see out the trip. Charlie Boyo is the KTB Selection. He has shown his best form over this distance, winning once from four attempts and finishing second last time out, has already won on good to firm and benefits from the trainer's strong Bath record plus a potentially advantageous draw in stall one. His main dangers are HK Fourteen, who has won both starts at the track and possesses a solid trip record, and Army Bugler, who brings consistent placed form at the distance plus course experience.
KTB Selection Charlie Boyo
This is the narrative read of the 5:37 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Level Up is the only front-runner in the field and tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence.
How many wins has HK Fourteen recorded at Bath?
HK Fourteen has won both starts at this track.
What is Charlie Boyo's record on good to firm ground?
Charlie Boyo has 1 win from 3 starts on good to firm with 2 placed.
Which runners are dropping in class?
HK Fourteen, Level Up, Guilty Verdict and Nuevo Slovo are all dropping in class.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Bath for the selection's yard?
Clive Cox has an 18% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 0.95 from 477 runs.
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