4:24 Salisbury
This Class 4 handicap division at Salisbury over 1m1f201y on good to soft ground features a field of 13, several of them 3yos still progressing against more exposed handicappers. The KTB Fit scores identify Oracle Mission as the top-rated on 65, followed by Bnaider on 60, with the rest of the field clustering between 57 and 37. A strong pace is anticipated, which according to the numbers should play into the hands of those capable of coming from off the pace.
How the race shapes up
With at least two habitual front-runners declared, including Oracle Mission, Alcaraz, Barry's Boy and Hello Cotai, the pace shape is expected to be strong and potentially testing. Several hold-up performers such as Bnaider, Dancing Tiger and Morcar are likely to be positioned towards the rear early. The key question is whether the pace will collapse in the closing stages, in which case the hold-up horses will be favoured to pick up the pieces.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Oracle Mission KTB Selection65/100
Oracle Mission shaped well when winning a 6f maiden on debut last year and followed up with a solid third in a nursery. He looked a shade below that level when eighth on his return at Newmarket last month over 7f. The step up in trip is an unknown at this stage while the wide draw is far from ideal. He tends to make the running or race on the pace. The trainer has a 22% strike rate at Salisbury with an A/E of 1.48 from 23 runs while the jockey posts an 18% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.79 from 17 rides. He is unproven on good to soft ground.
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2Bnaider60/100
Bnaider is a fair performer who has shown steady progress and arrives in decent form after a recent win. He has already scored on this ground and at today's trip, with the Salisbury course connections adding another positive. Trainer and jockey both operate at a steady level here without setting the place alight. He is usually held up and produces his effort late. The trainer has a 13% strike rate at Salisbury with an A/E of 0.77 from 32 runs while the jockey records a 12% strike rate with an A/E of 0.93 from 49 rides. He steps up in class having won once from one run on good to soft.
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3Dancing Tiger57/100
Dancing Tiger is a fair performer who has won three times at this trip and handles good to soft ground well with two wins and a further two places from four starts. Has course experience but could only finish fifth when tried here before. Trainer has a solid 12% strike rate at Salisbury from a decent sample while the claiming jockey is less proven at the track. He is usually held up and produces his effort late. The trainer records a 12% strike rate at Salisbury with an A/E of 1.1 from 113 runs while the jockey has a 9% strike rate with an A/E of 0.68 from 11 rides.
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4Felix Gem54/100
Felix Gem is a fair 3 year old with solid placed form at this trip and a recent win on his second start. He has course connections through his trainer and should handle the good to soft ground given his lightly raced profile. The yard's modest strike rate here is offset by the jockey's stronger record at the track. He typically settles in midfield. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Salisbury with an A/E of 0.84 from 355 runs while the jockey posts a 14% strike rate with an A/E of 1.21 from 35 rides.
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5Morcar53/100
Morcar is a fair handicapper who has been consistent without winning for some time. He has solid course form with a second here on his only visit and drops back to a trip he has won over five times from 22 starts. The yard and jockey both record 12% strike rates at Salisbury while his record on good to soft is modest from just two runs. He is usually held up and produces his effort late. The trainer has a 12% strike rate at Salisbury with an A/E of 0.74 from 791 runs while the jockey records a 12% strike rate with an A/E of 0.9 from 612 rides.
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6Mr Seagull53/100
Mr Seagull is a modest performer on the balance of his 11 starts and recent form figures of 465045. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Salisbury though the yard has failed to land a blow with this one on good to soft ground in three attempts. Untried beyond 1m1f and no standout positives in the data. He is usually held up and produces his effort late.
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7Arbaawy53/100
Arbaawy is a modest performer who has been consistent enough to place three times from 13 starts but has failed to win. Steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question while his three runs on good to soft have produced no win or place. Trainer has a solid 14% strike rate here from 14 runs while jockey is still seeking a first Salisbury winner from seven rides. He is usually held up and produces his effort late.
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8Kudos Too53/100
Kudos Too is a fair performer who has shown steady rather than sparkling form in three runs this year. Drops back from 1m3f to a trip he has already tried twice without success, which poses a fresh question. Trainer holds a solid 9% strike rate here while Marquand is operating at 13%. He is usually held up and produces his effort late.
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9Maldives52/100
Maldives is a fair performer who showed promise when placed over this trip on his second start. He was well held in a stronger race last time when stepped up to 1m4f, so the drop back in distance looks a sensible move. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Salisbury though the small going sample leaves that side of things unknown. He is usually held up and produces his effort late.
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10Alcaraz49/100
Alcaraz is a fair performer who has been out of form this year with three modest efforts from his last three starts. He has handled good to soft ground in the past with a win and two places from five runs but is now trying Salisbury for the first time from a wide draw. The trainer has a modest 5% strike rate here while the jockey fares better at 10%. He tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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11Barry's Boy48/100
Barry's Boy is a modest performer who has been up and down this year and ran to form when second at this trip last time. Has a poor record at Salisbury on his only visit and has shown little on good to soft ground. Trainer and jockey both have solid enough records at the track. He tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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12Hello Cotai40/100
Hello Cotai is a modest performer who has won three times at today's trip but is 0-5 since his last success in April. He ran creditably when third over C&D on his only previous visit to Salisbury and handles good to soft ground. Both trainer and jockey have modest records at the track. He tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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13Albus Anne37/100
Albus Anne is a modest performer who has placed twice from four runs at Salisbury without winning. Steps up in trip today having won once over this distance in the past though her recent form is ordinary and she showed little on her only previous run on good to soft ground. Trainer's modest record here adds no confidence. She is usually held up and produces her effort late.
KTB verdict
Oracle Mission is the KTB Selection. He shaped well when winning a 6f maiden on debut last year and followed up with a solid third in a nursery before looking a shade below that level on his return. The step up in trip is an unknown and the wide draw is far from ideal yet he remains the highest rated on KTB Fit. His main dangers are Bnaider, who arrives in decent form after a recent win and has already scored on this ground and at today's trip, and Dancing Tiger, who has won three times at this trip and handles good to soft ground well. Morcar and Felix Gem are others who can feature.
KTB Selection Oracle Mission
This is the narrative read of the 4:24 Salisbury. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Salisbury racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Salisbury results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is proven at both today's trip and on good to soft ground?
Bnaider has already scored on this ground and at today's trip.
How many wins has Dancing Tiger recorded at this trip?
Dancing Tiger has won three times at this trip.
What is Morcar's course record at Salisbury?
Morcar has solid course form with a second here on his only visit.
Which front-runners are likely to contribute to the strong pace?
Oracle Mission, Alcaraz, Barry's Boy and Hello Cotai tend to make the running or race on the pace.
How many placed efforts has Albus Anne recorded from her four runs at Salisbury?
Albus Anne has placed twice from four runs at Salisbury without winning.
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