4:05 Worcester
This Class 5 novices' handicap hurdle over 2m at Worcester on good ground features an 11-runner field where the KTB numbers point to a competitive but open-looking event. The top two in the KTB Fit rankings, Monark Wood (62) and Calibos (60), stand out as the clearest contenders on recent form and trainer/jockey course figures, while the remainder largely carry modest Fit Scores between 55 and 32. Most runners are dropping in class and several have limited or no course form, with the tentative pace shape adding an element of uncertainty to how the race will unfold.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as tentative with medium confidence and only thin evidence of a confirmed front-runner. Monark Wood is the one horse noted as tending to make the running or race prominently, though that assessment comes with low confidence given limited evidence. Most of the field, including Calibos, Finjimk, Famous Shoes, Jollie Dame and the majority of the others, are held-up types who produce their effort late. The key question is whether the lack of confirmed pace on paper will result in a steady gallop that plays into the hands of the prominent runners or if the race will develop into a sprint for the held-up brigade.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Monark Wood KTB Selection62/100
Monark Wood is a fair performer who has shown some ability in three starts, including a second on debut. He drops back from 2m4f to 2m today having failed to trouble the judge in his one previous run at this trip. The 4-year-old arrives off an official rating of 87 with form figures of 0274- and is dropping in class. Trainer Max Comley and jockey Freddie Mitchell both operate at a useful level at Worcester, the yard recording a 10% strike rate with an A/E of 1.2 while the 3lb claimer boasts a 24% strike rate and A/E of 1.52 from 17 rides. The combination looks well equipped to take advantage of any lack of confirmed pace up front.
-
2Calibos60/100
Calibos is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form on good ground and at this trip. The 4-year-old, rated 93, has form figures of 4-3 and is dropping in class having been competitive without winning over slightly further last time. He is held up and produces his effort late with high confidence in that run-style. Trainer Jo Davis records a solid 10% strike-rate at Worcester with an A/E of 1.17 from 81 runs while jockey Gavin Sheehan operates at 18% with an A/E of 1.09 from a large sample of 255 rides. He has been placed on three of six starts on good ground and looks sure to be involved if the race falls into his lap.
-
3Finjimk55/100
Finjimk is a fair sort who has struggled since an early promise, finishing well down the field in all five starts this year. Rated 86, he has form figures of P78800 and drops back to 2m having failed to make an impact at the trip in three previous attempts, while the going remains an unknown on the basis of such limited racing with four runs on good yielding no win or place. The 4-year-old is held up with limited evidence and low confidence in that assessment. Trainer Nick Scholfield holds a solid 20% strike rate at Worcester from ten runs with an A/E of 1.45 and jockey Kielan Woods is operating at a steady 17% from 230 rides with an A/E of 1.1.
-
4Famous Shoes53/100
Famous Shoes is a fair performer who has struggled to make an impact in nine starts and arrives off the back of a modest fifth last time. Rated 84 with form figures of 9FPU5-, he drops back to 2m today having failed to trouble the judge in three previous runs at the trip and is 0-3 on good ground. The 5-year-old is held up with high confidence in that run-style and is dropping in class. Trainer Neil Mulholland holds a solid 14% strike-rate at Worcester from a big sample of 522 runs with an A/E of 1.01 while jockey James Bowen is even stronger at 23% with an A/E of 1.27 from 166 rides.
-
5Jollie Dame53/100
Jollie Dame is a useful performer on the balance of her ratings and race history. The 5-year-old has form figures of 43334- and has been placed at this trip on two of her six starts while holding strong course connections through the yard and rider. Rated 98, she is dropping in class and is held up with medium confidence in that style. Trainer Dan Skelton has a 17% strike rate at Worcester with an A/E of 0.77 from 409 runs and jockey Harry Skelton operates at 20% with an A/E of 0.86 from 394 rides. The lightly-raced profile means her exact going preference remains unclear after two runs on good without a win or place.
-
6Estate Planning50/100
Estate Planning is a fair performer who ran respectably when fourth on his recent return here over this trip. He has placed three times at 2m without winning and has shown some competitiveness on good ground, though he is now 0-17. The trainer has a modest 9% strike-rate at Worcester while the jockey fares slightly better at 13%.
-
7Play On Court49/100
Play On Court is useful on his day but has failed to build on an early promise and arrives here on the back of a poor recent effort. He drops back to 2m having been well held over longer trips lately and the small sample means his effectiveness on good ground remains untested. Both trainer and jockey have modest records at Worcester.
-
8I Heard A Rumour49/100
I Heard A Rumour is a fair performer who has shown little in three starts since switching to hurdling. He drops back to 2m having been well held over further last time, though he has already been beaten twice at today's trip. Trainer continues in solid form at Worcester while the jockey's modest strike rate here reflects the quality of his usual rides.
-
9Billy Butcher45/100
Billy Butcher is a fair performer who has been largely out of form since returning from a long absence. He has twice finished sixth here over this trip without showing any real spark and remains winless in six career starts. The trainer and jockey both have modest records at Worcester.
-
10Thesoldiersminit44/100
Thesoldiersminit is a fair performer who has shown a bit of ability on his better days yet remains winless after six runs. He has already placed over today's trip but was only seventh when he tried this track last time and the yard's record here is poor. Jockey has a modest strike-rate at Worcester as well.
-
11Delta Legend32/100
Delta Legend is a modest performer who has failed to place in 26 starts this year and arrives on the back of a pulled-up effort. He has shown little at this track in two runs and is 0-5 on good ground. Trainer's modest 3% strike-rate at Worcester adds little confidence.
KTB verdict
Monark Wood is the KTB Selection. A fair performer who has shown some ability including a second on debut, he drops back to 2m having failed to trouble the judge in his one previous run at the trip yet looks well placed dropping in class with trainer and jockey both operating at a useful level at Worcester. The tentative pace shape could play to his strengths as the one horse noted as tending to make the running or race prominently. Calibos is the obvious main danger, a consistent performer on good ground who is also dropping in class and benefits from a strong jockey booking, while Finjimk, Famous Shoes and Jollie Dame are the other principals who cannot be entirely ruled out on trainer and jockey course figures.
KTB Selection Monark Wood
This is the narrative read of the 4:05 Worcester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Worcester racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Worcester results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the only one noted as tending to make the running or race prominently?
Monark Wood
How many runs has Finjimk had on good ground without winning or placing?
4
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Worcester among those with runners in this race?
Nick Scholfield with 20% from 10 runs
What is the course record of Estate Planning at Worcester?
Ran once, finishing 7th with no win or place
How many times has Billy Butcher finished sixth at Worcester over this trip?
Twice
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies