4:21 Bath
This Class 5 handicap division at Bath over 1m2f37y on good ground brings together a field of ten modest performers where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top. The selection Oman shares the highest Fit score of 58 alongside Condotti, with the next three principals all rated in the mid-50s, underlining how little separates the main players on the numbers. With no obvious front-runner in a steadily-run, tactical affair, the race is likely to hinge on positioning and timing of efforts from the rear.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of an obvious leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy should pay dividends. Almost every runner is described as held up, producing its effort late, so the field is expected to bunch early before the race develops into a test of when to commit in the straight. The key question is which of these late runners can pick up best off a muddling gallop without having too much ground to make up in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Oman KTB Selection58/100
Oman is a modest performer who knows his way around this track having won on his only previous visit. He has a solid strike rate at the trip with two wins from nine attempts and has shown enough on good ground to suggest the surface will be fine. Trainer Tony Carroll and jockey Myla Coppins both have above-average records here, with the trainer on 11% strike rate at Bath and the jockey on 18%. The horse arrives in ordinary form overall from recent figures of 479651 but his course win and trip effectiveness make him the one to beat from draw 7.
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2Condotti58/100
Condotti is a modest performer who has been consistent this year with a win and several placed efforts from 16 starts. He has won at this trip and is placed on two of six runs on good ground so the conditions look suitable enough. Hugo Palmer has a solid 21% strike rate at Bath while David Probert is a regular here with a 13% record. From a low draw of 1 and with held-up run style, he can be expected to come from off the pace in a steadily-run affair, building on recent form figures of 932521.
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3Daretobedifferent56/100
Daretobedifferent is a modest performer who has been on the go for a long time and looks exposed after 18 runs. Dropping back from 1m4f to 1m2f asks a fresh question while the first visit to Bath is an unknown. Des Donovan has a solid 15% strike-rate here from 13 runs and the horse has shown it can act on good ground, with one win from six attempts. Stepping up in class from recent form of 369450, the 3-year-old will need to improve on what he has shown so far from his held-up position.
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4Albus Anne54/100
Albus Anne is a modest performer who has won five times at this track from nine runs and also has a win on good ground from four attempts. She has been placed on both starts at this trip this year yet her recent form has been ordinary overall from figures of 7-4663. Jimmy Fox has a solid record here with an 11% strike rate while the small sample for jockey Olivia Haines prevents any firm view. Dropping in class from draw 8, her course record is the standout positive in a race where most are held up.
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5Mathoura52/100
Mathoura is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning in five starts. He finished a solid third here on his only visit to Bath and has been placed twice at today's trip, though he has failed to land a blow in three attempts at this distance. Joe Tickle and Taylor Fisher both have solid records at the track with strike rates around 11-12%. Dropping in class from an wide draw of 11, his course placing offers encouragement despite no win or place from two runs on good ground.
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6Prodigal Son50/100
Prodigal Son is a modest performer who won over 1m here last month and has placed on good ground. He steps up in trip today having been well held in his only previous try at this distance, with recent form of 374921. Dropping in class, the trainer's modest record at Bath is offset by Luke Morris's solid strike rate at the track.
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7Crimson Road49/100
Crimson Road is a modest performer who has been in good heart this year with three wins from his last six starts. He has run only once at Bath and has failed to place in eight runs on good ground so he comes here with a couple of questions to answer, though the trip is no issue as he has won five times over this distance.
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8King's Castle48/100
King's Castle is a modest performer with a solid career record that includes six wins on good ground from 16 starts. He has winning form at this trip and shaped well when third over course and distance on his only previous visit to Bath. The yard's strong 21% strike rate at the track is a plus but the 5 lb claimer has a modest record here.
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9She's Ideal46/100
She's Ideal is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year with two wins from 18 starts. She steps up markedly in trip today from a recent 6f run though she has placed three times from five attempts at this distance. The trainer's modest 5% strike-rate at Bath is offset by the jockey's solid 10% record from his small sample here.
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10Pangbourne35/100
Pangbourne is a limited performer who has shown only modest form this year and was well held when last seen over this trip. He has placed on good ground and at today's distance but his sole Bath run was poor and the yard's modest strike-rate here adds no confidence, while the jockey is still seeking a first winner at the track.
KTB verdict
Oman stands out as the KTB Selection. He is a modest performer who knows his way around this track having won on his only previous visit, with a solid strike rate at the trip and enough ability shown on good ground. The above-average records of both trainer and jockey at Bath add to his claims in a race where most runners are held up. His main dangers are Condotti, who has been consistent with a win and several places this year and benefits from Palmer's strong record here, and Albus Anne, whose five course wins from nine starts make her a major player on her return to Bath despite ordinary recent form.
KTB Selection Oman
This is the narrative read of the 4:21 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won five times at Bath?
Albus Anne has won five times at this track from nine runs.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Bath among the principals?
Hugo Palmer has a 21% strike rate at Bath for Condotti.
How many wins has Crimson Road recorded over this trip?
Crimson Road has won five times over this distance.
Which horse has course form of a third-place finish?
King's Castle shaped well when third over course and distance on his only previous visit to Bath.
What is the recent form of the selection Oman?
Oman's recent form figures are 479651.
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