3:22 Chepstow
This Class 4 mares' handicap hurdle at Chepstow over 2m3f100y on good to soft ground brings together a field of nine where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. The principals are led by a pair rated 60, with Miss Cynthia and Miss Carbo heading the numbers, while Love Sonnet and Kosasiempre sit just behind on 57 and 56. Overall the KTB assessments point to a race that will be decided by tactical positioning and late effort rather than blistering pace, with several runners stepping up or down in class adding an extra layer of interest.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and confidence is medium, suggesting a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy will pay dividends. With the top four principals all described as usually held up and producing their effort late, along with the majority of the field sharing similar run-styles, the race is likely to develop into a sprint for the line from the home turn. The key question is which of these patiently ridden types can summon the strongest finishing effort off a steady gallop without getting caught out of position.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Miss Cynthia KTB Selection60/100
Miss Cynthia arrives with a KTB Fit Score of 60 and is the clear selection. Rated OR 113, the 6-year-old has recent form figures of P/710- and is held up, usually producing her effort late. The Dan Skelton and Harry Skelton combination carries a 22% strike rate with an A/E of 0.90, though the trainer's record at Chepstow reads 12% strike rate and A/E 0.76. She has shown ability on good to soft ground with two wins from five runs and five places, but has no course form on record. The market read positions her SP in a field of nine, underlining her solid claims in what looks a suitable contest.
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2Miss Carbo60/100
Miss Carbo shares the top KTB Fit Score of 60 and is rated OR 108. The 4-year-old has recent form figures of 57615- and is stepping up in class. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she is trained by Neil Mulholland who has an 11% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 1.13, while jockey Bradley Harris has an 18% strike rate and A/E 1.4 at the track from limited rides. She has been competitive on good to soft without winning, placing once from three starts, and has no course form on record. The market read has her SP in a field of nine, making her a major player if the step up in class is within her compass.
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3Love Sonnet57/100
Love Sonnet is rated 57 on the KTB Fit Scores and carries an OR of 114. The 4-year-old has recent form figures of 2114- and is dropping in class, which could prove beneficial. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she is trained by Tim Vaughan who has a 7% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 0.78, while David Noonan has an 8% strike rate and A/E 0.8 at the venue. She showed strong ability on good to soft when winning her only start on the surface and has no course form on record. The market read positions her SP in a field of nine, suggesting she could be well-treated on her best efforts.
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4Kosasiempre56/100
Kosasiempre is next in the KTB Fit order on 56 and is rated OR 107. The 8-year-old has recent form figures of 71431- and is usually held up, producing her effort late. Trainer Stuart Edmunds has a 20% strike rate with an A/E of 1.10 overall, but at Chepstow his record is 7% with an A/E of 0.59, while jockey Charlie Hammond has a 12% strike rate and A/E 1.5 at the track. She has one win from five runs on good to soft with two places but her course record reads three runs without a win or place. The market read has her SP in a field of nine, leaving her with something to prove at this venue despite her recent competitiveness.
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5Onefournine53/100
Onefournine has a KTB Fit Score of 53 and is rated OR 115. The 6-year-old has recent form figures of /2201- and is usually held up. Trainer Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill have a 4% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 0.34, while Jonjo O'Neill Jr. has a 14% strike rate and A/E 0.84 at the track. She has one run on good to soft without a win or place and has no course form on record.
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6Only One Blue51/100
Only One Blue is rated 51 on the KTB Fit Scores and carries an OR of 107. The 4-year-old has recent form figures of 23324- and is dropping in class. Usually held up and producing her effort late, trainer Max Comley has a 0% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 0 from ten runs, while jockey Freddie Mitchell has a 23% strike rate and A/E 1.3 at the venue. She has one run on good to soft without a win or place and finished third on her only previous course visit.
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7Flash Bardot44/100
Flash Bardot has a KTB Fit Score of 44 and is rated OR 106. The 6-year-old has recent form figures of 3-2 and is usually held up. Trainer Henrietta C Knight has a 3% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 0.24, while Brendan Powell has a 5% strike rate and A/E 0.5 at the track. She has been competitive on good to soft, placing three times from seven starts without winning, and has no course form on record.
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8Where's Cato43/100
Where's Cato is rated 43 on the KTB Fit Scores and carries an OR of 101. The 7-year-old has recent form figures of 10123- and is stepping up in class. Usually held up, trainer Mrs C. Williams has a 9% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 0.56, while Adam Wedge has a 12% strike rate and A/E 0.96 at the track. She has two runs on good to soft without a win or place and finished fifth on her only previous course start.
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9Jammy Jay38/100
Jammy Jay has the lowest KTB Fit Score of 38 and is rated OR 98. The 6-year-old has recent form figures of 48-242 and is stepping up in class. Usually held up and producing her effort late, trainer James Evans has a 0% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 0, while Charlie Deutsch has a 10% strike rate and A/E 0.77 at the venue. She has three runs on good to soft without a win or place and has no course form on record.
KTB verdict
The steadily-run nature of this mares' handicap should suit those capable of producing their effort late, and the KTB Selection Miss Cynthia looks ideally placed to capitalise. With a Fit Score of 60 matching the highest in the field, a solid record on good to soft and the assistance of the Skelton team, she has the ability and the profile to take this contest. Miss Carbo, who also scores 60 on the KTB numbers, is the most obvious danger if the step up in class is not beyond her, while Love Sonnet dropping in class and Kosasiempre add depth to what looks a competitive race.
KTB Selection Miss Cynthia
This is the narrative read of the 3:22 Chepstow. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chepstow racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Chepstow results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Chepstow racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the KTB Selection and what is its Fit Score?
Miss Cynthia with a KTB Fit Score of 60.
What is the expected pace shape and how should it influence the race?
Lacks a leader with medium confidence, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which of the principals is dropping in class?
Love Sonnet.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Chepstow among those represented in the top four?
Neil Mulholland with an 11% strike rate.
How many of the nine runners have no course form on record?
Six runners have no course form on record.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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