4:14 Nottingham
This Class 5 handicap division at Nottingham over 1m75y on good to soft ground brings together ten three-year-olds, most of them modest performers seeking to break their duck or return to the winner's circle. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched across the top half of the field, with Lieutenant Kije heading the numbers on 56, followed closely by Magic Box, Mayaada, Mr Tony and Blue Boy Junior. Trainer and jockey Nottingham records vary markedly, from strong to modest, while several runners step up or down in trip and a few have yet to prove themselves on the surface.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a natural leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay. With the first five principals and every other runner in the field all described as held up types who produce their effort late, the race is likely to develop into a sprint for the line from off the pace. The key question is whether any horse can get into a rhythm early enough without over-racing in a race where the pace may be slow to develop.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Lieutenant Kije KTB Selection56/100
Lieutenant Kije is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form this year without winning. He steps up in trip today having failed to land a blow in his one previous run at a mile. The Tom Ward yard continues in solid form at Nottingham with a 22% strike rate and A/E of 1.46 from 37 runs, while Kieran Shoemark's local record stands at 12% with an A/E of 0.82 from 105 rides. He is usually held up and produces his effort late. There is no form on good to soft and no course form on record. From an OR of 69 and with recent form figures of 26-532, he is the KTB Selection.
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2Magic Box54/100
Magic Box is a modest performer who has shown enough to be competitive at this level without winning in 12 starts. He has been placed once from three runs on good to soft and once at today's trip, though first-time headgear is now fitted after a string of ordinary efforts. William Haggas has a solid 19% strike rate at Nottingham from a big sample of 390 runs while Tom Marquand's 13% record here from 221 rides is in line with expectations. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he carries an OR of 70 with recent form figures of 5-4873.
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3Mayaada53/100
Mayaada is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning in 19 starts. She drops back to 1m having been placed twice at the trip earlier in the year and has shown she handles good to soft ground. Ollie Sangster and Oisin Murphy both have solid Nottingham records, the trainer at 15% with an A/E of 0.67 from 13 runs and the jockey at 19% with an A/E of 1.05 from 206 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she carries an OR of 70 with recent form figures of 424485 and is dropping in class.
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4Mr Tony52/100
Mr Tony is a modest performer who has shown a fair level of consistency, winning twice this year including at today's trip. He has form on good to soft though it is limited to a single run without a placing. Owen Burrows has a solid 25% strike rate at Nottingham from 55 runs while Callum Rodriguez sits on 14% from 76 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he carries an OR of 63 with recent form figures of 413-14.
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5Blue Boy Junior51/100
Blue Boy Junior is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in four starts so far, finishing no better than fourth. He has twice raced at today's trip without success and the small sample makes going suitability hard to pin down. The David & Nicola Barron yard has a solid 15% strike rate at Nottingham from 20 runs while Hector Crouch has a 14% record here from 139 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he carries an OR of 67 with recent form figures of 4456.
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6Whatever Bruce51/100
Whatever Bruce is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in three runs over shorter trips. He steps up to 1m for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him while dropping in class. The Gemma Tutty yard holds a solid 17% strike rate at Nottingham from 18 runs though Joanna Mason operates at a more modest 8% from 89 rides here.
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7Anton Mauve49/100
Anton Mauve is a modest performer who showed little in three runs before springing a surprise to win a 7f maiden at Redcar last time. He steps up in trip today while stepping up in class for a yard with a solid 13% strike rate at Nottingham from eight runs. Jack Nicholls has a modest 7% record from 14 rides here.
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8Ubetterseethis48/100
Ubetterseethis is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He steps up in trip for the first time today having placed once at this distance without winning, while he has shown he can be competitive on good to soft ground. Craig Lidster has a solid 14% strike rate here though Tom Eaves's record is weaker at 5%.
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9Gunalt Wavelength44/100
Gunalt Wavelength is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year with two wins from 15 starts. He has placed at today's trip but is 0-3 on good to soft ground and makes his first visit to Nottingham. The Michael & David Easterby yard's 7% strike rate here from 87 runs is modest while the 5 lb claiming jockey has a fair 13% record from a small sample of eight rides.
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10Gwen's Girl33/100
Gwen's Girl is a limited performer on the evidence of her seven runs and recent form figures of 4-7665. She has shown little at this trip in three previous attempts and was well held when sixth on her only visit to Nottingham while stepping up in class. The Mark Walford yard holds a solid 10% strike-rate at the track from 59 runs while the 7lb claimer has too few rides here to assess.
KTB verdict
Lieutenant Kije heads the KTB Fit scores and is taken as the selection. A modest performer with consistent placed form this year, he steps up in trip for a yard that continues in solid form at Nottingham and a jockey whose local record is respectable. The steadily-run nature of the race should suit his held-up run style if he can time his late effort. Main dangers are Magic Box, who gets first-time headgear for a strong yard, and Mayaada, who drops in class with a good jockey booking and proven ability at the trip on this ground. Mr Tony and Blue Boy Junior complete the main principals in a race where the lack of obvious pace adds a tactical element.
KTB Selection Lieutenant Kije
This is the narrative read of the 4:14 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Nottingham results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Nottingham racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is unproven on good to soft ground among the top KTB-rated runners?
Lieutenant Kije and Blue Boy Junior have no runs on good to soft.
How many of the ten runners are described as held up types?
All ten runners are described as held up and usually producing their effort late.
Which horse is dropping in class and has been placed at today's trip?
Mayaada is dropping in class and has been placed twice at 1m earlier in the year.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Nottingham among those represented?
Owen Burrows has a 25% strike rate at Nottingham from 55 runs.
Which runner won last time out before stepping up in trip and class?
Anton Mauve won a 7f maiden at Redcar last time before stepping up in trip and class.
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