5:22 Nottingham
This Class 6 handicap over the minimum trip of 5f8y at Nottingham on good to soft ground features a field of 14 limited performers where the KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 55 and 29. The top five in the KTB rankings are separated by just four points, underlining the modest nature of the race and the small margins that could decide it. With the KTB Selection carrying an official rating of just 44, the contest highlights how even the lowest-rated runners can compete at this level when conditions align.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners present, including Loco Lobo and The Fixer, which should ensure an honest gallop that has the potential to collapse in the closing stages. This shape is likely to play into the hands of the numerous hold-up performers such as Rambuso Creek, Legendsoftheland and many of those drawn wider. The key question will be whether any prominent runners can withstand the late challenge of the hold-up brigade or if the pace will prove too demanding on the leaders.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Loco Lobo KTB Selection55/100
Loco Lobo is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts. He has won over today's trip in the past but his record on good to soft ground is poor from a small sample. The trainer holds a modest 7% strike rate at Nottingham while the jockey has too few rides here to judge. An eight-year-old with an official rating of 44, he arrives off the back of recent form figures of 20/3-5 and makes his first start at the track from draw 4. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he could set the early tempo in a race where the pace shape looks strong and liable to collapse late.
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2Rambuso Creek53/100
Rambuso Creek is a limited performer who has been in and out of form this year but did win over this course and trip on his penultimate start. He has shown he can handle good to soft ground and drops back to his winning distance today after a recent try over 6f. The trainer holds a solid record at Nottingham while the jockey's strike rate here is modest. A seven-year-old rated 53, his recent form reads 655154 and he has course form of one win from two starts. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he is well suited by the anticipated strong pace that could favour hold-up horses.
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3Aleppo Pepper53/100
Aleppo Pepper is a limited performer who has shown little since a promising second on debut. He drops back to 5f where he has placed once in three starts though he was well held on his most recent two runs. First-time headgear is now tried while both trainer and jockey have modest 10% strike rates at Nottingham. Rated 59 as a four-year-old from draw 2, his form figures read /2-359 and he remains unproven on good to soft ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late on limited evidence, he could be suited if the race develops as expected with a strong pace up front.
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4Legendsoftheland52/100
Legendsoftheland is a limited horse who has run to a similar level all year and is 1-6 at this trip. He has placed once from one run on good to soft but makes his first start at Nottingham. The trainer is operating at a 4% strike rate here while the jockey has a stronger 18% record from his small sample. Dropping in class with an official rating of 58, the four-year-old's recent form is 131328 and he is drawn in stall 7. A hold-up performer with high confidence who usually produces his effort late, he looks well positioned against the likely strong pace that could collapse in the latter stages.
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5The Fixer51/100
The Fixer is a limited horse who has been in and out of form this year and arrives off the back of a modest fourth at Yarmouth. He has won over today's trip but is 0-2 on good to soft ground and makes his first start at Nottingham. Trainer Scott Dixon has a 10% strike rate here from 136 runs while Kieran O'Neill's record at the track is not supplied. Rated 57 as a five-year-old from draw 10, his recent form reads 018433. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence, he is one of those who could help ensure the strong pace anticipated in this race.
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6Fletcher's Flight49/100
Fletcher's Flight is a limited performer who has won three times over this trip from 21 attempts but is 0-5 on good to soft with just one placing. First run at Nottingham today and the trainer's modest 5% strike-rate from 20 runs here adds little encouragement. Recent form of 417403 shows the occasional competitive run but nothing to suggest major improvement is imminent.
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7Call Time49/100
Call Time is a modest performer who has been in decent form of late with two wins in the last four starts. Has won at this trip but is 0-3 on good to soft ground and the wide draw in stall 12 is far from ideal. Trainer has a modest 6% strike rate at Nottingham from 153 runs.
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8Caitlin G49/100
Caitlin G is a limited performer who has shown very little since a 5f win at Redcar in June. Drops back to her winning trip today but has already been tried twice over it without success and her one run on good to soft produced no result. Trainer has only a single run here so the track is unknown.
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9Son of Astar48/100
Son of Astar is a modest performer with a mixed record and 28 runs in the last year. Has won four times at this trip but drops back from 6f today having been competitive without winning on good to soft ground. Trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Nottingham is matched by the horse's own poor run here last time from stall 14.
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10Jenny Jerome48/100
Jenny Jerome is a modest performer who has shown her best at this track with two placed efforts from two runs here. Drops back to 5f having been placed at the trip earlier in the year but she has failed to build on that promise of late. Trainer is 0-9 at Nottingham while the good-to-soft ground has not produced a win or place from two attempts.
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11Forever Glamorous48/100
Forever Glamorous is a limited horse who has shown bits and pieces in this grade with recent form of 235135 and a win over today's trip from six attempts. Trainer has a 0% strike rate from 17 runs at Nottingham while the horse makes its first appearance here today. Going form is modest with no win or place from two runs on good to soft.
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12Solid Bond47/100
Solid Bond is a limited performer who has won once over today's trip from 13 attempts. Has failed to place in three runs on good to soft ground and makes his first appearance at Nottingham. Trainer Declan Carroll has a 7% strike rate here from 238 runs while Zak Wheatley has yet to ride a winner at the track from 12 attempts.
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13Shining Guest47/100
Shining Guest is a limited performer who has shown just glimpses of ability in six starts. Has been placed once at this trip but lacks any real depth to his form and the yard's modest record here adds no confidence. Jockey has a solid strike rate at the track but that is the main positive on offer.
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14Spruces Due29/100
Spruces Due has shown very little in four runs to date and is a limited performer on the balance of what we have seen. Dropping back from 7f to an untried 5f poses a fresh question while the yard's record here is too small a sample to judge. The 7 lb claimer takes the ride on a horse that remains lightly raced overall.
KTB verdict
Loco Lobo is the KTB Selection in a race full of modest performers where the strong pace looks set to play a major part. His ability to go forward and make the running could see him get first run in a contest that may not be the strongest, even if his overall profile remains limited and his record on good to soft is poor from a small sample. The main dangers are likely to come from the hold-up brigade given the pace shape, with Rambuso Creek particularly well placed having won over course and distance, while Aleppo Pepper, Legendsoftheland and The Fixer also hold each-way claims on their best efforts.
KTB Selection Loco Lobo
This is the narrative read of the 5:22 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Nottingham results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Nottingham racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are expected to set the early pace?
Loco Lobo and The Fixer are both front-runners who tend to make the running or race on the pace, contributing to the strong pace shape.
Why might hold-up horses be favoured here?
The pace shape indicates a strong pace is likely with two or more habitual front-runners, which could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which runners are making their first start at Nottingham?
Loco Lobo, Aleppo Pepper, Legendsoftheland, The Fixer, Fletcher's Flight, Call Time, Caitlin G, Forever Glamorous, Solid Bond, Shining Guest and Spruces Due are all making their first appearance at the track.
Who has the strongest trainer record at Nottingham among the principals?
Michael Herrington holds a 14% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.47 from 29 runs for Rambuso Creek.
Which horse is trying first-time headgear?
Aleppo Pepper is fitted with first-time headgear.
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