1:52 Redcar
This Class 4 British EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (Div II) for two-year-olds in Bands C and D brings a field of ten together over an extended mile at Redcar on good ground. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with only a two-point gap between the leading pair and the principals otherwise separated by modest margins. Several runners arrive with limited racecourse exposure, making the trainer and jockey Redcar records particularly relevant in a race where the pace shape is described as tentative on medium confidence.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is tentative with medium confidence and only thin evidence of a committed front-runner. Unicorn Milkshake is the most likely to take the field along given his front-running style, though the confidence in that assessment is low. Most of the principals, including My Girl Dee Mo, Bearing In Time, Frontier Legend and Pigeon Pete, are held-up or mid-division types who will be looking to produce their efforts from off the pace. The key question is whether the race develops sufficient early tempo on this good surface or whether it becomes a slow-burn affair that favours those delivered late from the rail or midfield.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Lucky Test KTB Selection60/100
Lucky Test has only a single run to his name, finishing a modest sixth on debut, and will need to improve markedly if he is to take this. The step up to a mile represents an unknown and the small sample of form makes firm conclusions risky. He drops in class today which may help, although he remains unproven on good ground with no course form on record. Harry Eustace holds a 29% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.42 from 21 runs while George Wood posts a 30% strike rate and A/E of 1.96 from 20 rides at the track. The combination of those strong local trainer and jockey records gives him a solid platform despite the limited evidence.
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2My Girl Dee Mo58/100
My Girl Dee Mo has shown fair form in two starts, finishing third then second over this trip. Drawn on the rail she could be well placed on good ground, although the small sample leaves her effectiveness on the surface unconfirmed. She drops in class which looks suitable. Hugo Palmer has a 15% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.00 from 84 runs while David Probert operates at 12% with an A/E of 0.97 from 17 rides here. Her held-up run style means she will be produced late, fitting the likely shape of the race.
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3Wild Mary's Rose48/100
Wild Mary's Rose is a newcomer whose chance rests entirely on pedigree, sales background and the yard's record with juveniles. Gemma Tutty has a modest 9% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 0.75 from 56 runs while Joanna Mason posts a 10% strike rate and A/E of 0.9 from 161 rides at the track. There is no racecourse form available and data confidence is low. By Amaron, she has a 9% overall win rate to consider from 452 runners, but her chance is impossible to quantify beyond the stable's general ability with first-timers.
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4Bearing In Time47/100
Bearing In Time is lightly raced, having finished seventh on debut before being pulled up last time, so the form is hard to trust. He steps up to a mile for the first time today with first-time headgear also applied. Tim Easterby holds an 8% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 0.77 from 2372 runs while the claiming jockey Warren Fentiman has a solid 15% record and A/E of 1.1 from 40 rides here. His held-up style, with medium confidence, should see him coming from off the pace in a race that may not be strongly run.
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5Unicorn Milkshake47/100
Unicorn Milkshake has shown only modest form in two starts, finishing sixth then third without suggesting he is anything out of the ordinary. He drops back in trip today having already tried this distance once without success, while the small sample leaves his effectiveness on good ground unproven. Brian Ellison has a 7% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 0.7 from 449 runs and Kevin Stott holds a 14% record with an A/E of 0.9 from 275 rides here. His front-running style, though with low confidence, could see him take the field along in a tentative pace scenario.
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6Silent Running43/100
Silent Running is a newcomer from the Tim Easterby yard. The trainer has a modest 8% strike rate at Redcar from a huge sample of 2372 runs while jockey Duran Fentiman is operating at 4% from 761 rides here. With no racecourse form available and only low data confidence the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
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7Frontier Legend43/100
Frontier Legend has shown little in two starts so far, finishing fifth then last. The drop back to a mile is an open question and the small sample makes it hard to judge whether the horse will improve. Michael Dods has a 9% strike rate at Redcar from 1017 runs while Dougie Costello sits on 4% from 132 rides here. He is a held-up type with low confidence.
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8Bollin Farhh Go42/100
Bollin Farhh Go showed little at debut when finishing eighth and remains very lightly raced with only one run to go on. The Tim Easterby yard posts an 8% strike rate from thousands of runs at Redcar while Jake Dickson has a 4% record from his 26 rides here. Data confidence is low and the trip question remains open after one unplaced effort over today's distance.
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9Moudora41/100
Moudora has shown only modest form in two starts to date and steps up in trip to a mile today for a trainer with a 0% strike rate from seven runs at Redcar. The jockey has a more established record here with a 6% strike rate from 179 rides. Data confidence remains low given the small sample and limited evidence so far.
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10Pigeon Pete37/100
Pigeon Pete has shown fair form in two starts so far, finishing runner-up on both occasions. He steps up to a mile for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him as a modest performer. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 11 runs at Redcar while the jockey operates at a 9% strike rate from 863 rides here. He is held up with medium confidence and has placed once on good ground.
KTB verdict
Lucky Test is the KTB Selection. Although he has only shown modest form on his sole start to date, the combination of the drop in class, the strong Redcar records of both trainer Harry Eustace and jockey George Wood, and the tentative pace shape that may suit a midfield run all point in his favour. He is preferred to My Girl Dee Mo, who has the strongest piece of form on paper and a favourable draw on the rail. Wild Mary's Rose is the most interesting of the newcomers while Bearing In Time and Unicorn Milkshake add further depth to what looks an open novice.
KTB Selection Lucky Test
This is the narrative read of the 1:52 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Redcar racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest recent form figures among the principals?
My Girl Dee Mo and Pigeon Pete both have the strongest recent form figures, with My Girl Dee Mo recording 32 and Pigeon Pete 22.
How many runners are making their debut in this race?
Two runners are making their debut: Wild Mary's Rose and Silent Running.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Redcar among those represented?
Harry Eustace has the highest strike rate at Redcar with 29% (A/E 1.42 from 21 runs).
What is the run-style of the KTB Selection?
Lucky Test typically settles in midfield.
Which horse is the only one to have worn headgear before today?
Bearing In Time is the only one to have worn headgear before today as he is fitted with it for the first time.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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