What is Dougie Costello's strike rate?

Dougie Costello has won 140 of 1,555 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 9% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Dougie Costello do best at?

Newmarket by strike rate: 10 wins from 42 rides (23.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Dougie Costello ride most for?

Steph Hollinshead, with 198 rides since 2022 — 13% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (9.1%).

Is Dougie Costello in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 1 ride, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Dougie Costello's Fair A/E?

0.99, from 1,543 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Dougie Costello

1,555 rides in the last 5 seasons · 799 individual horses

As at 13 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 9 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

140–1,555

Wins / Runs

Strike rate

n=1,555

376 (24%)

Placed

0.99

Fair A/E

n=1,543 · 0.85 incl. margin

−576.75

£1 level stake

n=1,555 at SP · −37.1%

£1.54m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

6.6%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 310 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 9% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.99). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 16% (148 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,555 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 13 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Aug–Sep 35% when favourite Steph Hollinshead: 9.1% from 198 LTO winners: 16.2% Rides the favourite in 8% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Newmarket (23.8%, n=42), clear of the rider's 9% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 16.2% (n=148, Fair A/E 1.15), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 5.9% (n=272, Fair A/E 0.91). Steph Hollinshead supplies 13% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (9.1%, A/E 1.06) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well at trips under 6f (16.8%, n=191). 18 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Commonwealth Cup at Ascot (Jun 2016, £243,853). The standout partner of the record: Justcallmepete (GB) — 10 wins from 44 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Aug–Sep.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

7.4%−1.6

n=740 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −359.79

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

16.2%+7.2

n=148 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −30.53

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

5.9%−3.1

n=272 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −31.14

When favourite

35%

n=117 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −13.41

Big fields · 14+ runners

7.7%−1.3

n=168 · A/E 1.21 · £1 −28.17

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−9.0

n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −20.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Charlie Appleby 24.8% vs 9% · n=105

At Newmarket 23.8% vs 9% · n=42

At trips under 6f 16.8% vs 9% · n=191

With James Evans 16.7% vs 9% · n=138

On last-time-out winners 16.2% vs 9% · n=148

With horses switching code 0% vs 9% · n=47

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,553 140 9% −574.75

Chase 2 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 706 65 9.2% −232.77

Good 330 30 9.1% −117.30

Good to Firm 252 22 8.7% −134.62

Good to Soft 129 16 12.4% +3.69

Soft 113 6 5.3% −75.75

Heavy 25 1 4% −20.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 217 18 8.3% −93.47

Southwell (AW) 157 18 11.5% −59.44

Newcastle (AW) 105 7 6.7% −57.15

Kempton (AW) 89 7 7.9% −59.32

Chelmsford City (AW) 78 9 11.5% +3.33

Leicester 60 4 6.7% −39.84

Lingfield (AW) 60 6 10% +33.28

Bath 55 6 10.9% −19.88

Beverley 46 0 0% −46.00

Doncaster 45 2 4.4% −23.00

Catterick 45 3 6.7% −18.50

Windsor 43 3 7% −27.50

Newmarket 42 10 23.8% +18.45

Nottingham 34 4 11.8% −19.92

Thirsk 32 2 6.3% −21.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 519 37 7.1% −248.48

Class 5 497 45 9.1% −221.72

Class 4 337 39 11.6% −45.01

Class 3 109 13 11.9% +1.56

Class 2 68 4 5.9% −42.00

Class 1 21 0 0% −21.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 131 41 31.3% 1.00 −27.41

2nd–3rd fav 259 48 18.5% 1.13 −17.34

4th–6th fav 501 34 6.8% 0.85 −187.00

7th+ in betting 664 17 2.6% 0.91 −345.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Justcallmepete (GB) 42 10 18 10 Aug 26

Masqool (IRE) 33 6 12 13 Jul 26

Dream Composer (FR) 28 6 9 19 Sep 26

Angel Shared (GB) 21 7 8 18 Sep 26

Malham Tarn Cove (GB) 18 1 7 30 Oct 25

Pepsi Cat (IRE) 16 5 12 4 Apr 25

Astrophysics (GB) 14 3 5 2 Mar 24

Dragon Spin (GB) 12 2 5 16 Oct 26

Dancing In Paris (FR) 12 1 3 27 Jun 26

Albeseeingyer (GB) 12 2 4 29 Mar 26

Wisper (IRE) 12 3 7 1 Jul 24

Louis Treize (IRE) 12 2 3 24 Aug 23

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 799 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 1

Only 1 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

81577136711108513

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardSteph Hollinshead

13% of all rides
9.1% SR · A/E 1.06

TrainerRWSR£1

Steph Hollinshead 198 18 9.1% −90.35

James Evans 138 23 16.7% −16.92

Charlie Appleby 105 26 24.8% +12.06

Marcus Tregoning 83 11 13.3% +12.20

Ian Williams 82 4 4.9% −32.65

Mark Walford 71 3 4.2% −41.00

Tony Carroll 66 9 13.6% −7.17

Adrian Paul Keatley 34 3 8.8% −9.25

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

765

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£7.63m

Prize money

2017

Best season · 58 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Quiet Reflection (GB) — Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) Ascot · Jun 2016 · Group 1

£243,853

Quiet Reflection (GB) — 32Red Sprint Cup Stakes (Group 1) Haydock · Sep 2016 · Group 1

£162,191

Wayward Prince (GB) — John Smith's Sefton Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) Aintree · Apr 2010 · Class 1

£57,010

Notable horses

Justcallmepete (GB) Angel Shared (GB) Midnight Chase (GB) Masqool (IRE) Dream Composer (FR) Master Nimbus (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Bated Breath (GB) 14.5% · 10–69

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,180 runs since 2016 (670 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.6% from 857.

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 14.8% · 9–61

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,875 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.

Dark Angel (IRE) 2.9% · 1–34

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,957 runs since 2011 (1,596 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Dubawi (IRE) 9.4% · 3–32

Progeny have won 18.4% of 12,996 runs since 2009 (1,531 horses). Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 9.8% from 429.

Dream Ahead (USA) 19.4% · 6–31

Progeny have won 9.1% of 5,717 runs since 2015 (529 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6% from 184.

Al Kazeem (GB) 10.3% · 3–29

Progeny have won 10.7% of 1,267 runs since 2017 (88 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 14% from 129. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7% from 416.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 13 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 9,012 · newest first

The latest 50 of 9,012 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 4 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

04 Nov 26 Nottingham Look Back Smiling (IRE)T: Neil Mulholland racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Soft · 15 ran 3rd 13/2

29 Oct 26 Bath Look Back Smiling (IRE)T: Neil Mulholland Disability Inc Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Soft · 14 ran 1st 13/2

27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Bold Return (IRE)T: Steph Hollinshead Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 11th 33/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Reposado (GB)T: Dylan Cunha Thanks And See You Next Season Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 6f · Heavy · 14 ran 7th 18/1

24 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Alkaios (GB)T: Steph Hollinshead Join The Midnite Movement Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 9/1

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Twilight Moon (GB)T: Marcus Tregoning Midnite Are Upping The Betting Game Handicap StakesClass 5 · 11f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 33/1

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Commander Keith (IRE)T: Kevin & Lauren Frost Southwell Racecourse Conference And Events Ebf Maiden Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 5f · Standard · 12 ran 3rd 66/1

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Lavender Bloom (IRE)T: Steph Hollinshead Winter Ladies Night Saturday 28th November Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 40/1

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Ardad Apollo (GB)T: Mark Walford Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 40/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Taygar (IRE)T: Michael Dods Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 12 ran 5th 10/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Dragon Spin (GB)T: Steph Hollinshead Sam Hall Memorial Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good · 10 ran 6th 18/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Frontier Legend (GB)T: Michael Dods Join Racing TV Now British EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (Div II) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Good · 10 ran 7th 250/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Hidden Army (IRE)T: Ollie Pears Join Racing TV Now British EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Good · 10 ran 10th 100/1

13 Oct 26 Leicester Corduroy (GB)T: Steph Hollinshead racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 12th 125/1

13 Oct 26 Leicester Spirit Of Jenny (IRE)T: Steph Hollinshead Join Racing TV Now Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good To Soft · 18 ran 5th 9/1

10 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Flightofthephoenix (IRE)T: Charles Hills Gents Night Saturday 24th October Handicap StakesClass 5 · 12f · Standard · 11 ran 4th 15/2

10 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Neswick (GB)T: Marcus Tregoning Beerly A Winner Handicap StakesClass 5 · 14f · Standard · 7 ran 1st 16/1

09 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Grey Sands (IRE)T: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 5th 25/1

07 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Vilaine Verlaine (GB)T: Mark Usher Set Your Limits With Unibet Handicap Stakes (London Stayers Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 16f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 7th 25/1

07 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Barbuda Bay (GB)T: Roger Teal Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 14 ran 12th 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 13 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 4 runs (won 0, 2 did not run) · to 27 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Dougie Costello's strike rate?: Dougie Costello has won 140 of 1,555 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 9% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Dougie Costello do best at?: Newmarket by strike rate: 10 wins from 42 rides (23.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Dougie Costello ride most for?: Steph Hollinshead, with 198 rides since 2022 — 13% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (9.1%).
Is Dougie Costello in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 1 ride, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Dougie Costello's Fair A/E?: 0.99, from 1,543 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.