1:20 Redcar
This Class 4 British EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (Division I) at Redcar brings together ten two-year-olds over an extended mile on good ground. The KTB Fit ratings point to a race with limited depth where experience is at a premium and several runners are venturing beyond 7f for the first time. With the KTB numbers highlighting modest overall form and small samples on most runners, the contest looks tactical and open to improvement from those with the strongest trainer and jockey ties to the track.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay dividends. Several principals and field runners are noted as settling in mid-division or held up, suggesting the race may develop into a test of positioning and timing rather than sustained speed from the front. The key question is which horse can produce its effort at the right moment off a modest gallop while coping with the step up to a mile.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Bal Harbour KTB Selection62/100
Bal Harbour has only a ninth-place finish on his sole start as a two-year-old over 7f to his name. He now steps up to a mile for the first time which poses a fresh question. The Jack Morland yard holds a 20% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.3 from five runs while George Wood posts a 30% record with an A/E of 1.96 from 20 rides at the track. Trainer and jockey therefore bring strong course ties though the small sample on the horse itself means this run should be treated with caution. His mid-division run-style may suit a steadily-run race.
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2Extragalactic54/100
Extragalactic brings fair form with two placed efforts over 7f and now steps up to a mile for the first time. The William Haggas yard has a 25% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 0.93 from 228 runs while Cieren Fallon posts a 20% record with an A/E of 0.91 from 69 rides here. With only two runs on his record he remains open to improvement though the longer trip is an unknown. He has been placed once from one run on good ground. His held-up run-style fits the likely tactical shape of the race.
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3Dj Harry48/100
Dj Harry is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The Gemma Tutty yard has a modest 9% strike-rate at Redcar with an A/E of 0.75 from 56 runs while Joanna Mason has a 10% record with an A/E of 0.9 from 161 rides here. With low data confidence the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background which offer no standout clues at this trip and grade. The lack of a course win on record and the by Circus Maximus sire line with an 8% overall win rate from 175 runners complete a profile that is difficult to assess with any real confidence.
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4Gordons Girl46/100
Gordons Girl has shown little in two starts so far, finishing seventh and then eighth. She drops back in trip to around 1m having already tried the distance once without success. The David O'Meara yard holds a solid 15% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.03 from a large sample of 784 runs but the jockey has only two rides here with an A/E of 0 which is too small to judge. She has one run on good ground without a win or place. Her held-up run-style with medium confidence is likely to see her produced late in a steadily-run contest.
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5Shorien46/100
Shorien ran only once as a two-year-old and showed little at this trip. The Archie Watson yard has a solid 21% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.04 from 91 runs yet Pierre-Louis Jamin is operating at a modest 8% with an A/E of 0.37 from 25 rides here. With so little form in the book and the going sample too small to judge anything can be read with real confidence. He remains unproven on good ground and has no course form on record.
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6Meccapulco44/100
Meccapulco has shown only modest form in two starts so far, finishing fifth on both occasions. The Michael Dods yard has a 9% strike rate with an A/E of 0.86 from 1017 runs here while Paul Mulrennan matches that modest 9% with an A/E of 0.81 from 863 rides at the track. With so few runs on the clock and an untried trip last time the colt remains hard to weigh up properly and he has two runs on good without a win or place.
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7Pushing The Limits44/100
Pushing The Limits showed some promise when third on debut over 7f. He now steps up to a mile for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. The Stephen Hanlon yard has a modest 0% strike rate with an A/E of 0 from five runs at Redcar while David Probert has a solid 12% record with an A/E of 0.97 from 17 rides here. He is unproven on good ground and has no course form on record.
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8Wells Fargos Envoy43/100
Wells Fargos Envoy has shown only modest form in two starts so far, finishing eighth then sixth. He steps up to a mile for the first time today, a trip he has tried once without success. The Tim Easterby yard posts an 8% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 0.77 from 2372 runs while Duran Fentiman is on 4% with an A/E of 0.71 from 761 rides, both from large samples. He has two runs on good without a win or place.
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9So Farhh42/100
So Farhh has shown only modest form in two starts at 7f and now steps up to an untested 1m. The Tim Easterby yard posts an 8% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 0.77 from a large sample of 2372 runs while the 5lb claimer Jake Dickson has managed just 4% with an A/E of 0.33 from 26 rides here. With so little to go on overall the assessment remains tentative and he has one run on good without a win or place.
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10Hidden Army39/100
Hidden Army has shown little in two starts so far, finishing fifth on this track last time without looking ready to win. The Ollie Pears yard's 4% strike rate with an A/E of 0.46 from 237 runs at Redcar offers no encouragement, nor does Dougie Costello's similar 4% record with an A/E of 0.56 from 132 rides here. Stepping up to a mile for the first time asks a fresh question of a horse with very limited data overall and he has one run on good without a win or place.
KTB verdict
Bal Harbour is the KTB Selection. He brings the benefit of strong trainer and jockey records at Redcar and his mid-division style should be well suited to the expected steadily-run, tactical race. The main dangers are Extragalactic, who has shown fair form in two placed efforts and remains open to improvement, and the newcomer Dj Harry whose limited data makes him hard to assess but who cannot be entirely dismissed. Gordons Girl and Shorien have shown little so far yet bring respective trainer and yard ties to the venue that keep them in the mix in a race short on depth.
KTB Selection Bal Harbour
This is the narrative read of the 1:20 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Redcar racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time having shown placed form over 7f?
Extragalactic has shown fair form with two placed efforts over 7f and now steps up to a mile for the first time.
What is the trainer strike rate at Redcar for the yard of the KTB Selection?
Jack Morland has a 20% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.3 from five runs.
Which runner has a held-up style with medium confidence and is dropping back in trip?
Gordons Girl is held up with medium confidence and drops back in trip to around 1m having already tried the distance once without success.
How many runners in the field are unproven on good ground?
Bal Harbour, Shorien, Pushing The Limits and Dj Harry by implication through limited data are unproven on good ground.
Which horse finished fifth on this track last time out?
Hidden Army finished fifth on this track last time without looking ready to win.
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