7:30 Dundalk (AW)
This 7f handicap at Dundalk on standard ground brings together a competitive field of 13 runners, several with strong course records on the surface. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Spicy Margarita, Valiant Force and Ocean's Breath all rated in the low sixties, underlining the competitive nature of the race. Recent form is mixed across the field, but course-and-distance experience and trainer records at the venue will be key factors on a night when the pace is expected to be strong.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the field the pace shape is strongly positive for hold-up performers, as the early gallop looks likely to be on the strong side and could set the race up for those coming from off the pace. Valiant Force and Exquisite Acclaim are the most prominent in their run styles and will probably take the field along early from their low draws. The key question is whether the leaders can sustain the gallop or whether the race will collapse late, handing the advantage to the hold-up horses such as Spicy Margarita, Ocean's Breath and several others drawn higher.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Spicy Margarita KTB Selection62/100
Spicy Margarita is a useful performer who has won over this trip and on this surface. Dropping back from 1m2½f looks a plus given her record at shorter, though she has been out of form for some time now. The 4-year-old is held up, usually producing her effort late, which could be an ideal run style if the anticipated strong pace materialises. Trainer Robson De Aguiar has a 22% strike rate at Dundalk from 69 runs while jockey Donagh O'Connor posts a 9% record from 946 rides at the venue. She has won once from five starts here and holds a 1-from-5 record on standard ground.
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2Valiant Force61/100
Valiant Force is a fair performer with a solid record at this track, including five wins from 12 runs. He has won five times on standard ground from 17 starts and the trainer maintains a 22% strike rate here from 69 runs. Stepping back up to 7f poses a fresh question after recent runs over 5f where he has shown modest form. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race prominently, he is likely to be towards the head of affairs early from stall 2 and could set a strong gallop. Jockey W M Lordan has an 11% strike rate at Dundalk from 2020 rides.
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3Ocean's Breath61/100
Ocean's Breath is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record of 4-1913 and has already shown he handles this track and trip. He won on his only previous visit to Dundalk over this distance and has scored on standard going, so conditions look suitable. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the colt could be well suited if the race develops as anticipated with a strong pace up front. The Lyons yard posts a 17% strike rate here from a big sample while Keane is operating at 16%, both figures in line with expectations.
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4Exquisite Acclaim56/100
Exquisite Acclaim is a fair handicapper who has won six times at this track from 22 runs and also holds a solid record on standard ground with seven wins from 27 starts. He drops back to 7f today having last run over a mile and has won five times from 23 starts at this trip. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is likely to be prominent early from his draw in stall 4 and will help ensure a strong gallop. The yard posts a 10% strike-rate here from a large sample while jockey Adam Caffrey has a 12% record from 504 rides at Dundalk.
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5Frescobaldi56/100
Frescobaldi is a fair 3-year-old who has placed on his only previous visit to Dundalk and shown he handles the standard surface. He steps up from 5f to a trip he has won over before, which looks a more suitable distance on paper. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the colt should be well positioned to capitalise if the leaders go hard early. The trainer holds a solid 15% strike rate here while the jockey's 6% record from limited rides is more modest.
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6Howd'yadoit55/100
Howd'yadoit is a fair performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He has run twice at this track without placing and shown little on standard ground so far. The trainer has a solid record here but the jockey's strike rate is modest.
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7City House53/100
City House is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form on this track and on standard going. He has won over today's 7f trip though his recent form has been patchy and the wide draw in stall 12 is far from ideal. The trainer's modest 10% strike rate here is offset by the jockey's solid 14% record at Dundalk.
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8Headmaster51/100
Headmaster is a fair performer who has won twice at this trip from eight attempts and showed useful form when landing a race from a big field early last season. He has been out of sorts in six runs since and his recent form figures of 120000 underline that he needs to bounce back. The yard and jockey both have solid records at Dundalk though he is unproven on the standard surface and makes his first start here.
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9Cool Azul51/100
Cool Azul is a fair 3 year old with solid placed form at this track and a recent win over 6f. He steps up to 7f for the first time today having already placed once at the trip. Trainer Oliver has a 12% strike rate from 765 runs at Dundalk while jockey W J Lee sits on a 10% strike rate from 1747 rides here.
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10Kindergarten47/100
Kindergarten is a fair performer who won on debut but has failed to build on it in four subsequent starts. He has twice been tried over this trip without success and the small sample on this surface leaves going suitability open to question. Trainer and jockey both have solid but unspectacular records at Dundalk.
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11Ohailbhic45/100
Ohailbhic is a modest performer with a solid record at this track, having won three of nine starts here. He drops back to 7f having last run over a mile and is placed once in six starts at the trip without winning. Trainer and jockey both have below-average strike rates at Dundalk.
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12Brewing42/100
Brewing is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing second twice and third once from five runs. He has won at this trip and handles standard ground, though his recent form has been mixed with a string of lesser efforts. The trainer's modest 8% strike rate here and the jockey's 5% record add little encouragement from the wide draw.
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13Boston Benjamin41/100
Boston Benjamin is a modest performer who has already won once at this track and once on the standard surface from limited attempts. Dropping back from 1m7f to a trip he has won over before looks a sensible move though his most recent efforts were ordinary. Trainer has a 9% strike rate at Dundalk from a big sample while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge.
KTB verdict
Spicy Margarita is the KTB Selection. A useful performer with previous winning form over this trip and on this surface, she is dropping back in distance which looks a positive given her record at shorter trips, and her hold-up style could be ideally suited if the strong pace materialises as expected. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Dundalk which adds further encouragement. The main dangers are headed by Valiant Force, who has an excellent course record including five wins here, and Ocean's Breath, a progressive 3-year-old who has already won on his only previous visit to the track.
KTB Selection Spicy Margarita
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:03 UTC, 16 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Spicy Margarita | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Valiant Force | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Ocean's Breath | 11/4 | Bet365 |
| Exquisite Acclaim | 5/1 | BetTom |
| Frescobaldi | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Howd'yadoit | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| City House | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Headmaster | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Cool Azul | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Kindergarten | 14/1 | Bet Victor |
| Ohailbhic | 9/1 | BetTom |
| Brewing | 20/1 | Bet365 |
| Boston Benjamin | 22/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 7:30 Dundalk (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Dundalk (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Dundalk (AW) results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Dundalk (AW) racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by a strong pace collapse?
Spicy Margarita, Ocean's Breath and Frescobaldi are all habitual hold-up performers who usually produce their effort late and therefore stand to benefit if the anticipated strong pace collapses.
Which runners are likely to set the early pace?
Valiant Force and Exquisite Acclaim are both front-runners who tend to make the running or race prominently and will ensure the pace is strong.
How many previous wins does Valiant Force have at Dundalk?
Valiant Force has five wins from 12 runs at this track.
What is Ocean's Breath's record on his only previous visit to Dundalk?
Ocean's Breath won on his only previous visit to Dundalk over this distance.
Which horse has the best course strike rate among the principals?
Exquisite Acclaim has won six times at this track from 22 runs.
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