5:22 Bath
A competitive Class 6 handicap division over a mile at Bath on good ground brings together a field of 14 where the official ratings are tightly bunched. The KTB Fit scores highlight a narrow margin at the top, with Redhot Whisper heading the numbers on 59, just ahead of the veteran Eye of The Water on 58. With the race lacking an obvious front-runner the pace is set to be steady and tactical, placing emphasis on those who can position effectively and produce their effort at the right moment.
How the race shapes up
Given that the pace shape lacks a leader the race is expected to be run at a steady gallop with no one keen to take the field along. Several runners prefer to race prominently or in mid-division, which should see the pace set from those positioned handy early. The key question is whether the lack of an obvious leader allows those who are usually held up to get a suitable rhythm without the race becoming too stop-start, with being handy likely to pay in a tactical affair.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Redhot Whisper KTB Selection59/100
Redhot Whisper arrives with a KTB Fit Score of 59 and is the clear selection. Rated 57, the 5-year-old has shown consistent form of late with figures of 033217, including a win and two placed efforts. Dropping in class is a positive and the trainer boasts a 15% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 1.06 from 288 runs, while the jockey has a 14% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.91 from 259 rides. The horse is competitive on good ground having been placed on all three starts, and has solid course form with two thirds from two runs at Bath. Usually held up and producing its effort late, the run-style should suit if the race develops as anticipated, and the market read of SP in a field of 14 suggests interest.
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2Eye of The Water58/100
Eye of The Water is rated just behind the selection on a KTB Fit Score of 58. Now a 10-year-old rated 46, the gelding has recent form figures of 636356 and remains competitive without winning of late. The trainer has a strong 14% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 1.62 from just seven runs, and the 5lb claimer has a 14% strike rate at the venue with an A/E of 1.57 from seven rides. Placed four times from 16 starts on good ground without winning, the horse has won twice from 28 starts at Bath which adds to its course appeal. Usually racing prominently and on or close to the lead, the run-style could be an advantage in a race lacking an obvious leader.
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3Blue Hero54/100
Blue Hero carries a KTB Fit Score of 54. Rated 58, the 8-year-old has recent form of 121274 which includes two wins and solid placed efforts. The trainer-jockey combination has a 10% strike rate from 73 runs with an A/E of 0.67, while the trainer himself holds a 15% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 1.06 from 288 runs. With three wins from 11 starts on good ground and five placed efforts, the going looks suitable, and the horse has an excellent course record with eight wins from 32 starts at Bath. Usually held up and producing its effort late, the run-style fits the expected tactical nature of the contest.
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4Bobby Dassler52/100
Bobby Dassler is next on a KTB Fit Score of 52. The 7-year-old is rated 47 with recent form figures of 778087 that suggest a need to bounce back to form. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 1.67 from 11 runs, though the jockey's record at the track stands at 5% with an A/E of 0.62 from 209 rides. With one win from 11 starts on good ground and five placed efforts, the going is not a major concern, and the horse has won once from 13 starts at Bath. Typically settling in midfield, the run-style should see it well placed in a steadily-run affair.
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5Freedom Bay51/100
Freedom Bay completes the principals with a KTB Fit Score of 51. Rated 48, the 4-year-old has shown some promise with recent form of 132824 including a win and several placed efforts. The trainer has a 17% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 1.35 from six runs, though the jockey's record stands at 9% with an A/E of 0.64 from 100 rides. With one win from three starts on good ground and two placed efforts, the going is in its favour, and it has won once from two starts at Bath. Usually held up and producing its effort late, the run-style aligns with several others in what is likely to be a tactical race.
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6Port Louis48/100
Port Louis has a KTB Fit Score of 48 and is dropping in class. Rated 60 with recent form of 803885, the 5-year-old is usually held up. The trainer has a modest 5% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 0.54 from 231 runs, and the jockey has an 8% strike rate at the track. With one win from 10 starts on good ground, the horse has no course form on record.
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7Haaf A Diamond46/100
Haaf A Diamond is rated 46 on a KTB Fit Score of 46. The 6-year-old has recent form of 740-36 and is usually held up. The trainer has no Bath record but an overall 9% strike rate, while the jockey has an 8% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 0.98. With one win from four starts on good ground, the horse has been placed on its only previous run at the course.
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8Havana Mojito46/100
Havana Mojito carries a KTB Fit Score of 46. Rated 57 with recent form of 222602, the 5-year-old is usually held up. The trainer has a 5% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 0.54, but the jockey has a strong 18% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.06. With one win from 11 starts on good ground, the horse has no win or place from three previous runs at Bath.
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9Squiffy46/100
Squiffy has a KTB Fit Score of 46. The 4-year-old is rated 58 with recent form of 41-406 and is usually held up. The trainer has a 6% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 0.53, while the jockey has a 15% strike rate at the track. Unproven on good ground with no runs on the surface, the horse has no course form on record.
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10Pebble Dash41/100
Pebble Dash is rated 41 on a KTB Fit Score of 41. The 4-year-old has recent form of 673831 and is usually held up. The trainer has a 5% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 0.54, while the jockey has a 10% strike rate at the track. With no win or place from three runs on good ground, the horse has no course form on record.
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11Amathus39/100
Amathus has a KTB Fit Score of 39. Rated 52, the 9-year-old has recent form of 841504 and is usually held up. The trainer has a 5% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 0.5, while the jockey has an 11% strike rate at the track. Placed three times from 12 starts on good ground without winning, the horse has been placed but is yet to win from five runs at Bath.
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12Baynoona39/100
Baynoona carries a KTB Fit Score of 39. Rated 45 with recent form of -52877, the 5-year-old is usually held up. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 0.8, while the jockey has a 13% strike rate at the track. With no win or place from five runs on good ground, the horse has won once from 11 starts at Bath.
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13Guinness Lad39/100
Guinness Lad has a KTB Fit Score of 39 and is dropping in class. Rated 52 with recent form of 521384, the 6-year-old is usually held up. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 0.89, while the jockey has a 12% strike rate at the track. With no win or place from four runs on good ground, the horse has finished sixth on its only previous run at Bath.
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14Letsbeatsepsis35/100
Letsbeatsepsis is rated 35 on a KTB Fit Score of 35. The 4-year-old has recent form of 043176 and is usually held up. The trainer has a 6% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 0.39, while the jockey has an 11% strike rate at the track. Placed twice from seven starts on good ground without winning, the horse has finished fourth on its only previous run at Bath.
KTB verdict
Redhot Whisper is the KTB Selection and heads the Fit scores in a race where the principals are closely matched. The 5-year-old brings consistent recent form, a drop in class, placed efforts on good ground and solid course form at Bath, along with a trainer and jockey who both perform well at the track. Its held-up run-style should be suited to the expected steady pace. The main dangers are likely to come from Eye of The Water, whose prominent racing style could be ideal if the race lacks early speed, and Blue Hero, who boasts an excellent course record and good-ground wins. Bobby Dassler and Freedom Bay round out the principals and cannot be ruled out in what looks a tight contest.
KTB Selection Redhot Whisper
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 19 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Redhot Whisper | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Eye of The Water | 33/1 | William Hill |
| Blue Hero | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Bobby Dassler | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Freedom Bay | 4/1 | BetTom |
| Port Louis | 30/1 | 7Bet |
| Haaf A Diamond | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Havana Mojito | 4/1 | 7Bet |
| Squiffy | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Pebble Dash | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Amathus | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Baynoona | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Guinness Lad | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Letsbeatsepsis | 9/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 5:22 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Bath racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Redhot Whisper rated the top selection?
It has the highest KTB Fit Score of 59, consistent recent form including a win, a drop in class, placed efforts on good ground, solid course form at Bath, and positive trainer and jockey reads at the track.
How is the race likely to be run given the pace shape?
It lacks a leader so is expected to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays, with several held-up runners likely to be produced late.
Which horses have the strongest course records at Bath?
Blue Hero has won eight times from 32 starts, Eye of The Water has won twice from 28, Freedom Bay has won once from two, and Baynoona has won once from 11.
Which trainers have the best strike rates at Bath according to the supplied data?
Zoe Hawkins has 17%, Adrian Wintle has 15%, Ronald Harris has 14%, and Barry Murphy has 9%.
Which runners are dropping in class?
Redhot Whisper, Port Louis and Guinness Lad are all dropping in class.
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