7:45 Wolverhampton (AW)
This Class 6 handicap over the minimum trip at Wolverhampton promises to be a tactical affair on standard going. An 11-runner field lines up with most runners holding up, and the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top end, with five principals separated by just two points. The KTB numbers highlight Invincible Crown as the selection, though several others bring solid course form and recent consistency to the table.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, meaning one horse is likely to bowl along in front with little pressure. Sheik Yerbouti is the only front-runner in the field and could be allowed an uncontested lead. Most of the principals, including the selection, are held-up types who will be looking to come from off the pace, so the key question is whether they can close the gap on a clear leader over this stiff 5f on the all-weather.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Invincible Crown KTB Selection55/100
Invincible Crown arrives with a KTB Fit of 55 and is the clear selection. Rated 61, this 4-year-old has form figures of 031162 and has shown a liking for the surface with five wins from 15 runs on standard going. The horse has won three times from eight starts at Wolverhampton, underlining its course prowess. Ruth Carr's 10% strike rate at the track comes with an A/E of 0.95 from 877 runs, while James Sullivan's 7% strike rate here carries an A/E of 0.83 from 1078 rides; their combined record reads 345/3971 (9%) with an A/E of 0.85. Usually held up and producing its effort late, the selection will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time up front.
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2Blue Force54/100
Blue Force is rated just a point behind on KTB Fit at 54 and holds an official rating of 65. This 5-year-old brings recent form of 691442 and has won four times from 23 starts on standard going, including two victories from eight runs at Wolverhampton. Antony Brittain and Harry Russell combine with an 11% strike rate from 281 runners and an A/E of 1.00, showing a small level-stakes profit of +£5.46. The trainer's record at the track is 10% with an A/E of 0.88 from 851 runs, and the jockey posts 9% with an A/E of 0.86 from 212 rides. A usual held-up performer who produces its effort late, Blue Force will need the leader to come back to the field if it is to land a blow from the rear.
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3Lethimfly54/100
Lethimfly matches the KTB Fit score of 54 and is rated 62. This 4-year-old has form figures of 200007 and is now tried in first-time headgear in a bid to spark improvement. It has been competitive without winning on standard going, placing once from three starts. Gerard Keane's record at Wolverhampton reads 9% strike rate with an A/E of 0.68 from 22 runs, while Oisin Orr brings a stronger 16% strike rate and A/E of 1.1 from 130 rides at the track. Usually held up with medium confidence in that assessment, the horse has no previous course form and will be another chasing home a likely clear leader.
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4Little Jaybee54/100
Little Jaybee also scores 54 on KTB Fit and carries an official mark of 61. The 3-year-old has shown good recent form with figures of 332217 and boasts two wins from seven starts on standard going, including two victories from five runs at this track. David Evans and Oisin Murphy team up with a 20% strike rate from 61 runners and an A/E of 1.13, producing a small level-stakes profit of +£0.82. The trainer's track record is 11% with an A/E of 0.83 from 4052 runs, while the jockey is operating at 23% with an A/E of 0.94 from 643 rides here. Usually held up with high confidence, this progressive sort will be looking to strike late but must overcome the pace setup.
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5Sheik Yerbouti53/100
Sheik Yerbouti is rated 53 on KTB Fit and holds an OR of 59. This 5-year-old has recent form of 803751 and brings solid all-weather credentials with one win from three starts on standard going, including a victory from three runs at Wolverhampton. Grace Harris and Ashley Lewis combine with a 12% strike rate from 52 runners and an A/E of 1.08, showing a level-stakes profit of +£13.00. The trainer's track record stands at 5% with an A/E of 0.82 from 271 runs, but the 3lb claimer has a stronger 17% strike rate and A/E of 1.18 from 46 rides here. The only front-runner in the field with medium confidence in that style, Sheik Yerbouti could be allowed an easy lead according to the pace shape and may prove hard to peg back.
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6Basholo51/100
Basholo has a KTB Fit of 51 and an OR of 56. This 7-year-old has form of 484066 and brings strong course form with six wins from 28 starts at Wolverhampton, along with six wins from 40 runs on standard going. Usually held up with high confidence, it will be another trying to come from off the pace.
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7Alkuwarrior50/100
Alkuwarrior is rated 50 on KTB Fit with an OR of 65. This 3-year-old has form figures of 756673, is dropping in class, and has limited standard going experience with one run yielding no win or place. It finished sixth on its sole course start and is another held-up type.
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8Rogue de Vega49/100
Rogue de Vega scores 49 on KTB Fit and is rated 59. This 6-year-old has recent form of 96-111 and has won four times from nine starts at Wolverhampton, with five wins from 27 runs on standard going. Usually held up with high confidence, it represents Antony Brittain and Cam Hardie.
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9General Assembly47/100
General Assembly has a KTB Fit of 47 and an OR of 60. This 5-year-old has form of 504584 and has won once from four starts at the track, with three wins from 18 runs on standard going. Usually held up with medium confidence, the trainer has a 0% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 27 runs.
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10Banana37/100
Banana is rated 37 on KTB Fit with an OR of 46. This 7-year-old has form of -24377 and has been competitive on standard going without winning, placing 10 times from 36 starts. It has placed at the track from 30 runs but is another held-up performer.
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11Caitlin G36/100
Caitlin G has the lowest KTB Fit at 36 and an OR of 49. This 3-year-old has form of 415008 and has no win or place from three runs on standard going or from three starts at the course. Usually prominent with medium confidence, the trainer has a 0% strike rate at Wolverhampton from five runs.
KTB verdict
Invincible Crown is the KTB Selection and looks to have the best blend of course form, all-weather experience and a solid recent record. The 4-year-old has won three times from eight starts at Wolverhampton and knows how to produce a late effort, which could be well suited if the leader does not get away. Its main dangers are likely to come from Sheik Yerbouti, who could steal the race if allowed an uncontested lead from the front, and the consistent pair Blue Force and Little Jaybee, both of whom have strong course records and are closely matched on the KTB ratings.
KTB Selection Invincible Crown
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:13 UTC, 19 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Invincible Crown | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Blue Force | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Lethimfly | 13/2 | William Hill |
| Little Jaybee | 7/2 | Bet365 |
| Sheik Yerbouti | 6/1 | Midnite |
| Basholo | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Alkuwarrior | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Rogue de Vega | 7/1 | Midnite |
| General Assembly | 13/2 | BetTom |
| Banana | 40/1 | Bet365 |
| Caitlin G | 40/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 7:45 Wolverhampton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wolverhampton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Wolverhampton (AW) results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Wolverhampton (AW) racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Sheik Yerbouti is the only front-runner in the field and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many of the principals are held-up types?
Four of the five principals – Invincible Crown, Blue Force, Lethimfly and Little Jaybee – are usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which horse has the strongest course record at Wolverhampton?
Basholo has won six times from 28 starts at the track.
Who rides the selection Invincible Crown?
James Sullivan rides Invincible Crown for trainer Ruth Carr.
What is the combined trainer-jockey strike rate for the selection?
The trainer and jockey record for Ruth Carr and James Sullivan reads 345/3971 (9%) with an A/E of 0.85.
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